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QBs on the move and what could be done with Pick #3

2020.03.17 23:44 ElvenHero QBs on the move and what could be done with Pick #3

As many of you may have seen, there have been a few different teams who have moved on from or picked up quarterbacks within the last few hours. The moved-ons being the Panthers with Cam Newton and the Patriots with Tom Brady. And the picked-ups being Philip Rivers to the Colts, Teddy Bridgewater to the Panthers, and, what seems very likely at this point, Tom Brady to the Buccaneers.
Since the Lions sit at Pick #3 in the 2020 NFL Draft and many believe (as do I) that they will NOT be looking to take a QB with that pick, the general consensus is that they should move down a few spots (if a certain someone is not available) and pick one of Jeffery Okudah, Isaiah Simmons, or Derrick Brown. The problem that has surfaced today is that, with QB Tua Tagovailoa being the ideal player for teams to move up for, many teams are looking towards free agency instead of the draft for a QB.
Starting-caliber QBs who are currently on the market (either through trade or FA):
Dalton and Newton are likely to be dealt within the coming weeks/days. Winston could sign somewhere as either a starter or backup, depending on how the league views his resume. And Foles, while unlikely, could be traded from the Jaguars to a team in need (I think this is the least likely QB to be moved).

Likely teams looking for a new starter:
Teams with a QB who may be looking for a future replacement:
And I'll throw in a surprise team:
This largely depends on how you view Jimmy Garoppolo and his contract. I doubt the 49ers move on from Garoppolo under his current contract, but it's always fun to theorize about this stuff. I'll explain this idea a bit later.

With all this in mind, let's take a look at where these teams sit in the draft and with their current QBs:

Team 2020 First Round Pick # Current Starter
Miami Dolphins 5, 18, 26 Ryan Fitzpatrick
Los Angeles Chargers 6 Tyrod Taylor
New England Patriots 23 Jarrett Stidham
Carolina Panthers 7 Teddy Bridgewater (signed for 3 years, $63 million)
Washington Redskins 2 Dwayne Haskins
Las Vegas Raiders 12, 19 Derek Carr
Chicago Bears X Mitchell Trubisky
Indianapolis Colts X Philip Rivers (signed for 1 year, $25 million)
Pittsburgh Steelers X Ben Roethlisberger
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 *Tom Brady (not signed, just rumored)
San Francisco 49ers 13, 31 Jimmy Garoppolo
With the Bears, Colts, and Steelers all having no First Round Picks, we can likely take them off of the list of potential trade partners (also Bears since they're in the NFC North).
The Redskins are not a trade partner since they are ahead of the Lions at #2. So take them off as well.
If the Buccaneers sign Brady, there is <0.01% chance they take a QB in the first. So they are out as well.
Panthers will likely look to next year for a QB if need be and at best sit pat at 7. Take them off the list.
That leaves the Dolphins, Chargers, Patriots, Raiders, and the surprise team of the 49ers as potential trade partners. Here's how these teams stack up compared to what the Lions would want in exchange:

If I were to rank these potential trade partners in terms of likeliness, it would be:
  1. Dolphins
  2. Chargers
  3. Raiders
  4. Patriots
  5. 49ers
With Dalton, Newton, Winston, and Foles all potentially on the move, it's possible that only the Dolphins will be looking for a QB and may be able to sit at #5 to take Tua.
Of course, this all relies on (1) the Bengals taking Joe Burrow at #1, (2) the Redskins taking Chase Young, (3) the Lions not taking Tua or any other QB at #3, and (4) Tom Brady going to the Buccaneers.
All in all, the QB signings and trades today have likely tanked the idea of someone trading the farm to move up to #3 to take Tua.

TL;DR There are very few scenarios in which we get a major haul for the #3 pick.
submitted by ElvenHero to detroitlions [link] [comments]


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2019.11.04 23:56 VertexMF Mike (Mayock Jr)'s 2020 GFL Mock Draft

1) Buffalo Bills – Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Buffalo has a dilemma here with Josh Allen not quite developing as they hoped he would, throwing a concerning 20 TDs to 19 picks. They could look to move on from him in favor of Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, but I see them continuing to build around Allen. If they go down this route they desperately need a talented playmaker to help him succeed in that offense with no clear #1 WR. Signing RB Matt Breida in FA helps, but doesn’t quite move the needle. WR Jerry Jeudy could very well be the play here, but with the number one overall pick I see them taking the potential best player in the draft in the latest member of Ohio State’s long line of pass rushing phenoms, Chase Young. Young, Hughes, Ed Oliver, and the newly acquired Calais Campbell could make for one of the best pass rushing units in the NFL, continuing to solidify Buffalo as an elite defense.
2) Tennessee Titans – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Tennessee has finally opted to move on from Marcus Mariota, who is now facing the pressure of succeeding Tom Brady in New England. With Tannehill also gone, they will look to take the best QB available in Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa. While he is a dynamic runner with elite accuracy, he isn't without his flaws. He doesn't have the arm strength you would like and tends to panic when his first read isn't there. He may struggle early on until he gets some help as he doesn't have a lot to work with in the way of a supporting cast with Derrick Henry hitting the open market and signing with Tampa Bay.
3) Washington Redskins - Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
Washington went all in on QB Dwayne Haskins in the first round last year and now they have a big opportunity to help him succeed with the #3 overall pick. Their biggest need happens to be WR and Alabama's 6'1 star wideout is right here for the taking. Jeudy is without a doubt the best offensive playmaker in this year's draft as he's drawing comparisons to another with the same initials in Julio Jones. Jeudy has elite route running, he's dominant at the catch point, and a legitimate threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. If Jeudy goes #1 overall to Buffalo, look for WR Laviska Shenault to be the pick here. With Kareem Hunt coming in through free agency, this offense has the potential to be an absolute powerhouse if Haskins can take the next step in his sophomore year.
4) Cincinnati Bengals - Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Cincy elected to let their long time starter in Andy Dalton walk this offseason. They will look to right the ship with a potential franchise Quarterback in Oregon's Justin Herbert. They could very well bank on the Georgia Bulldogs' frontman Jake Fromm, but Herbert seems to be the safer, more polished prospect here. Towering at 6'6, Herbert has a cannon for an arm and can make plays with his legs. He will need to clean up his accuracy and improve his pocket presence if he hopes to be the savior this franchise needs.
5) Los Angeles Rams - Grant Delpit, S, LSU
McVay and the Rams fell way below expectations after having just been in a Super Bowl in 2018. They have a huge hole at the safety position with Eric Weddle retiring and their defense, save for Aaron Donald, is a big liability. LSU's Grant Delpit, a blue chip prospect and the top safety prospect in the draft is a great fit here. Delpit has everything you look for in a modern coverage safety. He's got the wingspan to break up passes at 6'3, the instincts of a seasoned veteran, elite ball skills, and he's solid against the run. LA needs a player of his caliber if they hope to get back in the Lombardi hunt.
6) Jacksonville Jaguars - Derrick Brown, IDL, Auburn
With the emergence of Minshew Magic, Sacksonville has solved their QB woes like a rabbit out of the head. They can now look to build around Gardner and address other holes on their roster. With Calais Campbell now leaving for Buffalo in free agency, they could look to replace him with Auburn's 6'5, 320lb wrecking ball, Derrick Brown. Brown is simply one of the best defensive prospects in this year's draft. He's a blue chip prospect with absolutely elite power and hand technique.
7) Indianapolis Colts - Laviska Shenault Jr, WR, Colorado
Indy seems to have survived the departure of Andrew Luck with Jacoby Brissett now in the driver's seat. He's played well above expectations and has the potential to be their franchise quarterback. They did however trade away T.Y. Hilton this offseason and have a glaring hole at the position. Laviska Shenault Jr. is an explosive playmaker with the ball in his hands and has a precise route tree. This is a slam dunk as far as upgrading the WR position goes.
8) Baltimore Ravens - A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa
Baltimore needs help in the pass rushing department and Iowa's A.J. Epenesa is a solid pick to do just that. While he doesn't have the technical polish that Chase Young has, he has elite size and power at 6'6, 280lbs. He could come in and make an immediate impact on that defensive line as the Ravens look to get back in the postseason.
9) Oakland Raiders - Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
Stefon Diggs' younger brother Trevon is a blue chip prospect at cornerback, which is exactly what the Raiders need after drafting busts like Kolton Miller and Gareon Conley the past few years. With Oakland picking up Kelvin Beachum to replace Miller at LT, cornerback remains the biggest need on the team. Trevon is a strong, physical press corner standing at 6'2. He can lock down the vertical passing game and has a knack for turning his head and getting his hands on the ball.
10) Miami Dolphins (MIN) - Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
No one could have predicted the year that Coach of the Year, Brian Flores had in Miami, taking the worst team in football and developing Josh Rosen, whom everyone had written off, into an MVP Quarterback en route to a conference championship appearance. They fell just short of the super bowl, but the future is extremely bright in Miami. They've been busy this offseason, trading for veteran pass rushers Melvin Ingram and Cameron Heyward, contributing to what is now one of the best pass rush units in the NFL, as well as trading two first round picks to move up to #10 overall. They've also been making a splash in free agency, signing star wideout Amari Cooper and a handful of DBs including Trae Waynes and Haha Clinton-Dix. All that's left for the most part is to sure up the offensive line. Andrew Thomas out of Georgia is the best offensive lineman prospect in the draft at 6'5 and 320 lbs of pure muscle. He possesses the elite strength and flexibility to be an anchor at the position for years to come.
11) New Orleans Saints - Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia
With Drew Brees calling it a career and riding off into the sunset the Saints need to find his successor if they hope to get back to the postseason with this loaded roster. Georgia's Jake Fromm doesn't have the biggest arm, but he is one of the most accurate Quarterbacks in the class and can diagnose and pick apart zones consistently. As long as he isn't asked to carry this team he should be in a position to win a lot of games for this team.
12) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DEN) - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU
With Tampa Bay trading away their star Left Guard, Ali Marpet to move up to #12 overall, look for them to make a splash with an impact player at this spot. Trading away Chris Godwin has left some big shoes to fill in Tampa. I see them looking to one of the most explosive players in the draft in TCU's Jalen Reagor. While he's not the most physical receiver at the catch point, he gets consistent separation with both his gamebreaking speed and crisp routes.
13) San Francisco 49ers - Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn
With Joe Staley calling it a career, I see John Lynch passing the torch to the Monster from Auburn, Prince Tega Wanogho. The 6'7, 300lb brick wall should transition smoothly as he's shown solid hand technique and elite mobility for his size. He's the clear #2 Offensive Tackle prospect behind Andrew Thomas and should make for a solid franchise piece.
14) New York Jets - Tyler Biadasz, C, Wisconsin
While this team has plenty of holes to plug, including at the cornerback and wideout positions, the offensive line is the biggest liability on this team. Wisconsin's Tyler Biadasz draws comparisons to Matt Paradis and for good reason. He's an extremely smart player that can completely erase larger interior defenders with his strength and run blocking technique.
15) New England Patriots - Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
They said it would never happen, but here we are. Even the great Tom Brady can't slip by old Father Time. After a season to forget he's finally decided to call it a career, and one of the best we've ever seen at that. Bill Belichick hopes to keep the dynasty afloat by looking to the former Oregon Duck, Marcus Mariota after Tennessee has opted to cut all ties with the signal caller. New England has not been quiet in free agency this year, acquiring Arik Armstead to help get after the Quarterback. They still have a big need at Linebacker and Clemson's Isaiah Simmons is a perfect fit. He's got the size, the strength, the explosiveness, and most importantly, the smarts that make this a classic Belichickian pick after having lost Jamie Collins to free agency. Simmons is a blue chip prospect that should start day one for this football club.
16) Seattle Seahawks - Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
The Legion of Boom becomes more of a distant memory with each passing season as Seattle now has one of the weakest defensive back corps in the league. Shaquill Griffin is not cutting it as a #1 corner so look for Kristian Fulton out of LSU to be the pick here. He fits the lengthy, physical mold that Seattle loves. He has fantastic press coverage off the line and excels at flipping his hips and sprinting with the best of them.
17) Dallas Cowboys - CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
After having banked on star wideout Amari Cooper by trading Oakland a first round pick for him, Dallas has already opted to let him walk and sign with the hopeful and fired up squad in Miami. Dallas has not looked to free agency to address the issue. Look for the freak of nature out of Oklahoma, CeeDee Lamb to spark some life into this offense. Lamb has the exceptional size you look for at 6'3 and has absolutely elite ball skills. You can count on Lamb to high point and attack the ball. He already possesses veteran like technique with his head fakes and ability to fight off pressure. Lamb should make an immediate impact in this offense.
18) Philadelphia Eagles - Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia
Save for the veteran Malcolm Jenkins, Philly's defensive back corps is an absolute mess. They desperately need an impact player to plug the hole and help them get back to the super bowl. Virginia's Bryce Hall is the best cornerback still on the board. At 6'1, 200lbs, Hall can bully a wideout off the line of scrimmage and make quick breaks on the football. His combination of size, length, ball skills, and instincts should keep Philly content for years to come.
19) Green Bay Packers - Shane Lemieux, OG, Oregon
With veteran tackle Bryan Bulaga leaving for Arizona in free agency there are some big holes on this offensive line. GM Brian Gutekunst looks to bring in the former Titan Quinton Spain at left guard, but Oregon's Shane Lemieux is the best offensive lineman available and should start over Spain day one. Lemieux stands at a towering 6'6 and has the mobility and athleticism that you rarely see from a man of his size. He's able to quickly pull and demolish guys in the second level on a consistent basis. He makes for a fantastic asset in the screen game that LaFleur loves to run in Green Bay.
20) Atlanta Falcons - Julian Okwara, EDGE, Notre Dame
Atlanta desperately needs a game changer in the pass rush department. Notre Dame's Julian Okwara has all the physical tools you look for in an edge rusher. He's explosive off the line and displays some fantastic technique with his hands and hips. He also has plenty of moves in his arsenal to keep his opponents guessing. His ability to stop the run isn't ideal, but he makes for a solid addition to this Atlanta defense out of the gate.
21) Minnesota Vikings (MIA) - Tristan Wirfs, OG, Iowa
Minnesota has the defense and weapons on offense to make a splash in the postseason, they just need to keep Kirk Cousins upright. Offensive line has been the Achilles' heel of this team since he arrived. I have them taking Iowa's Tristan Wirfs here. Wirfs is a dominant force on the offensive line and should immediately contribute in both the run and pass game.
22) Minnesota Vikings (MIA) - Levi Onwuzurike, IDL, Washington
While Minnesota has a glaring hole at the Free Safety position, there isn't one I would take at this spot in the draft. I have them filling another need here and drafting one of the best players still available in Washington's Levi Onwuzurike. He combines an explosive first step with wrecking ball power from the interior to consistently collapse the pocket and get after the Quarterback. Putting him alongside the likes of Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffen, and Linval Joseph will have opposing Quarterbacks lying awake at night.
23) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Kenny Willekes, EDGE, Michigan St.
With JPP nearing the end of his career, Tampa needs some youth to help get after the passer. Not unlike the Bosa brothers, Kenny Willekes out of Michigan St. lacks the athletic explosiveness of a Khalil Mack, but has the length, bend, and hand technique that make him a safe pick with a high floor. He has an exceptional range of moves in his arsenal to set up and counter opposing tackles and keep them guessing.
24) Oakland Raiders (CHI) - Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
With Antonio Brown.. let's say, not working out as Oakland hoped he would, Tyrell Williams was forced to carry the load. The 6'4 Clemson Tiger Tee Higgins should ease some of that burden and open up the passing game for Derek Carr here. Higgins combines an absolutely ridiculous catch radius with some of the best hands in the class, dropping only two passes in his 2018 season. While his route running isn't the best in his class, he doesn't need separation to win down field. He uses his size to climb the ladder against any corner.
25) Cleveland Browns - Lucas Niang, OT, TCU
Cleveland has not quite bounced back from Joe Thomas calling it quits after a hall of fame career in 2018. Joel Bitonio transitioning back to his original position of Offensive Tackle should keep Baker's blindside protected, but their Right Tackle position could use an upgrade. RT Chris Hubbard has been somewhat serviceable in pass protection, but he can't run block to save his life. TCU's Lucas Niang is an absolute mauler at 6'7, 330lbs. He gets out of his stance much quicker than you'd expect for his size and has the reach to stop edge rushers in their tracks. He'll need to work on his footwork to succeed at the next level, but he should be an instant upgrade.
26) New York Giants - Javon Kinlaw, IDL, South Carolina
The New York Football Giants have one of the worst pass rushing units in the NFL. South Carolina's Javon Kinlaw could help address that. He has elite size at 6'6, 310lbs. While his technique is a bit rough around the edges, he has a rare combination of length, athleticism, and hand usage that should transition very well at the next level.
27) Kansas City Chiefs - Shaquille Quarterman, LB, Miami
While Running Back is a weakness on this team and Georgia's D'andre Swift is right there for the taking, KC desperately needs help at the linebacker position and the defensive side of the ball as a whole. The U's defensive signal caller is a perfect fit here. Shaquille Quarterman is an instinctive, physical freak that can match up sideline to sideline with running backs or plug the gap and obliterate them up the middle. His coverage skills leave some room to be desired, but with some development, we could be looking at the NFL's next elite Mike Linebacker.
28) Arizona Cardinals - Mike Danna, EDGE, Michigan
After not quite getting it done in the postseason behind the #1 overall pick rookie sensation, Kyler Murray from a year ago, Arizona has not been conservative with their cap, signing a plethora of veterans to help sure up some holes on the roster. They've brought in Bryan Bulaga, Joe Haden, Vontaze Burfict, Jimmy Graham, and Jimmy Smith among others. Their pass rush unit could still use some help, however. Michigan's Mike Danna took a huge leap forward in 2019 for the Wolverines. The 6'2 EDGE has elite power and knows how to use it. He ranked in the top ten in pressures in 2019 and should immediately contribute for Arizona, allowing Darius Philon to kick back inside to his original position of Interior Defender.
29) Detroit Lions - Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
Detroit has a big need at the Safety position and Alabama's Xavier McKinney is an extremely versatile piece to use in any scheme. He's shown the ability to lockdown Tight Ends in man coverage, stuff the run in the box, blitz off the edge, or fly sideline to sideline as a deep center fielder. The only knock on him is his physical ability. He compares well to Minkah Fitzpatrick and should transition easily into Patricia's defense.
30) Miami Dolphins - Netane Muti, OG, Fresno St.
The Hawaiian native out of Fresno St. fills a big need here. He compares very well to Shaq Mason as he is an absolute freight train in the run game with consistent pancake blocks. He isn't quite as effective in the zone game as his mobility could be better and he hasn't faced the best competition at Fresno State, but he has all the tools you look for to be an elite, powerful Guard at the next level.
31) Carolina Panthers - Jordan Love, QB, Utah St.
Ron Rivera and the Panthers proved skeptics wrong as they dominated the postseason and fell just short to the Chargers in Super Bowl LIV. In the eyes of GM Marty Hurney, however, Cam Newton is not the man to take them to the promised land going forward as they've opted to cut the former Heisman winner after not finding a trade partner for him. This decision was a bold one and I now see them banking on the last remaining first round Quarterback in Utah State's Jordan Love. Love displayed flashes of great pocket presence to compliment his cannon arm and accurate touch on the ball. He has, however, struggled at handling pressure and wasn't asked to do much in Utah State's offense as 24.5% of his production came off of screens. He doesn't always make the best decisions either, but as long as Rivera uses him to his strengths he may just be an upgrade over Cam Newton.
32) Los Angeles Chargers - David Woodward, LB, Utah St.
Philip Rivers and the Chargers have finally gotten it done on the biggest stage and brought back the franchise's first Lombardi in team history. Rivers has now joined Eli Manning and Big Ben Roethlisberger as Super Bowl winning Quarterbacks from that legendary class of '04 which will no doubt lock him in as a first ballot Hall of Famer. LA has not had long to celebrate the victory before the hangover hit as they've lost multiple starters to the open market this offseason, including Jatavis Brown, Trevor Williams, and Austin Ekeler. They look to be piling up cap in order to give All Pro Defensive End, Joey Bosa what is sure to be the largest defensive contract in NFL history. While cornerback and offensive line are now in need of repair, Utah State's David Woodward is a solid pick here at Linebacker to help sure up a weakened defense. He can match up extremely well against Tight Ends in coverage with flashes of elite athletic ability. He was one of the surest tacklers in the country in 2018, only missing seven tackles on 125 attempts, and can diagnose plays like an instinctive veteran. His strength is questionable at the next level as he is prone to getting annihilated by offensive linemen in the run game. He should bring some steadiness to the position with Jatavis Brown now in Arizona.
submitted by VertexMF to GFLxActual [link] [comments]


2019.07.30 16:58 DeludedYinzer Offseason Review Series: Day 21: The Pittsburgh Steelers

Something I wanted to point out quickly. I wrote most of this stuff before the Steelers training camp actually started on Friday. So if something I say is opposite of what has been happening at camp the past 4 days, that's why. I did change some things, but I didn't want to change all of it for the sake of honesty. Thanks

Pittsburgh Steelers

Division: AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-1)
3. Cleveland Browns (7-8-1)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)

Coaching Changes

Mike Munchak Moves On, Shaun Sarrett Named OL Coach - Most Steelers fans expected Munchak to leave at some point soon. I don't think anyone expected him to leave for another offensive line job. Munchak was reported to be one of the finalists for the Broncos head coaching job. Once it was announced Vic Fangio had gotten the Broncos head coaching job, I thought that we were in the clear. It was then reported that Munchak was being hired as the Broncos offensive line coach. I was pretty shocked at first. Things were going great for him here and I didn't think he was getting caught up in all of the other drama(more on that later). But it turns out he wanted to be closer to his family(which is why he interviewed for the HC position in the first place). Shaun Sarrett has been with the Steelers for 8 years now but last year was his first as an OL assistant specifically. This seemed like a no brainer move and many speak highly of Sarrett. Losing Munchak is obviously big but hopefully, Sarrett can pick up where Mike left off.
Joey Porter Not Retained, Keith Butler Takes Back OLB Coach Role - This has been something many fans(including myself) have been hoping for. Although TJ Watt has looked great in his first two seasons, the same development hasn't been felt through Bud Dupree and Jarvis Jones did not improve in his final two seasons with the Steelers. Yes, the Steelers did finish 1st in sacks the last two years, but that is a little deceitful. A good amount of those sacks came from the defensive line and blitzing ILBs. In 2017, Cam Heyward and Vince Williams(the two leading Steelers sackers) accounted for 35.7% of the sacks. 2018 was better because of Watt's 13 sacks, but there wasn't much behind him. Which is another issue; the Steelers have gotten almost nothing from backup EDGE rushers. Anthony Chickillo is not awful, but not someone you'd want to be your #3 EDGE, which is what he has been the past 2 years. So Porter didn't develop any depth either. There all also some off the field questions with Porter, including possibly trying to pit the defense against the offense, though this has been denied by some players. He is being replaced by.......Keith Butler.
Butler was the Steelers OLB coach for 12 years before being promoted to DC after Dick LeBeau's departure. The results so far have been a mixed bag at best. The defensive line and the run defense has been pretty consistent, but the secondary has been a mess and the overall scheme has question marks attached. Maybe going back to his roots will help that group and in turn, help the defense. Or maybe this is a purely cosmetic decision and nothing will change. We will see. But this might be the last year for Butler to prove he can be the DC.
James Saxon Not Retained, Eddie Faulkner Named New RB Coach - This move is baffling. I assumed that Porter would be the last coaching change made. Saxon was the RB coach since 2014. Most notably the year Le'Veon Bell broke out. You have to party contribute that and the rest of Bell's career to this point to Saxon. Deangelo Williams also had a successful 2015 season under Saxon. James Conner is also hopefully on his way to a promising NFL Career after a good 2018 season. So why was Saxon not retained? No clue.
No one has any idea why this move was made. No one. Steelers players and other NFL coaches are apparently dumbfounded and mad by this decision. Some point to the fact that the Steelers ranked 31st in total rushing last year. While true, the Steelers also ranked 31st in rushing attempts. Hard to rush well as a team if you aren't committed to the run in every scenario. So I just doubt that reasoning. Your guess is as good as any as to why Saxon was let go. Maybe something will come out later, but for now, we are all in the dark. He is now the Cardinals RB Coach.
Steelers decided to hire Eddie Faulkner to replace Saxon. Faulkner had been NC State's TE/FB/ST coach for 6 years. Current Steeler Jaylen Samuel played under Faulkner, so maybe the Steelers liked him while they were scouting Samuels. It'll be interesting to see what he can bring to this young RB group.
Teryl Austin Hired As Senior Defensive Assistant/Secondary - Tomlin (correctly) felt that the defense needed a little extra support in terms of coaching. Austin was most recently fired by the Bengals last year as there defensive coordinator. The Bengals defense was very bad last year, but Austin has a decorated NFL career and coaching a smaller group of defensive backs will hopefully be a better scenario for him. Apparently, Austin will also have some sort of role concerning challenges and maybe even time management. Tomlin has not won a challenge since the WC game against the Miami Dolphins in the 2016-2017 postseason and he has been criticized by some for his clock management.
There has been some debate whether or not these changes are just Tomlin saving face/trying to shift the blame. I personally don't. Tomlin is never one to deflect blame away from himself. While the Saxon decision is certainly questionable, the Porter decision was a long time coming and having Butler back with the OLB is at the very least an interesting move(if not a last-ditch effort). Some wonder whether another down year would mean the end of Tomlin in Pittsburgh. Its definitely an interesting conversation, but I ultimately think Tomlin will be safe unless things completely fall off the rails.

Free Agency

Players Lost/Cut

BOLD = Starters
Player Position New Team
Antonio Brown WR Raiders
Le'Veon Bell RB Jets
Marcus Gilbert RT Cardinals
Coty Sensabaugh CB Unsigned
Jon Bostic LB Redskins
Jesse James TE Lions
Morgan Burnett S Browns
LJ Fort LB Eagles
LT Walton DE/DT Bills
Justin Hunter WR Unsigned
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Unsigned
Matt McCrane K Unsigned
Stevan Ridley RB Unsigned
Nat Berhe S Unsigned
Antonio Brown (Traded for Raiders 2019 3rd and 5th round picks) - Whew boy. I'm gonna try my best to keep most of this section focused on the field, though some off the field stuff is relevant(more about the off the field aspect will be in the Other Offseason news section). Brown basically forced himself into being traded this offseason(besides asking for a trade obviously). Things were getting very toxic, very quickly and it was making everybody look very bad. I think the Steelers made some mistakes along the way and ultimately hurt the trade value. The biggest example was when Art Rooney II said in an interview that they weren't going to cut him and that it was "hard to envision" Brown with the team in training camp. So if you aren't going to release him but you don't see him on the team in July, then that is very obviously telling that you are going to trade him. Which hurts the trade value immensely. Now teams know that you are almost desperate to trade him. That was a damaging interview. Brown was briefly a Bill until that trade fell threw because of Brown wanting a new contract and the Bills not willing to give him one. The Raiders then swooped in and got the deal done(much more to the story, but again, trying to stay on topic). In my opinion, this was not a great trade for us. A 3rd and a 5th for arguably the best receiver in the NFL is just not enough. I get they were between a rock and a hard place, but I thought it would be an early 2nd. Plus you have to factor in the cap hit it took. Replacing Brown will be difficult and will take more than one person. Hopefully, they can figure it out in time before a playoff run.
Le'Veon Bell - This will be short. Bell sat out the entire 2019 season due to a contract dispute. Bell didn't like the contract being offered by the Steelers(specifically the guaranteed money). The Steelers aren't willing to give a ton of guaranteed money to any of their free agents. Bell signed with the Jets. The contract really isn't very favorable to him compared to the final contract offer the Steelers gave. But he wanted to bet on himself, so good on him.
Marcus Gilbert (Traded for Cardinals 2019 6th Round pick) - Gilbert's career started pretty great. He became a regular starter in 2013 and got better and better as time went on. At one point, I would say he was a Top 5 RT in this league. 2017 was the year things took a turn. Gilbert injured his hamstring in a Week 2 win against the Vikings. He didn't return until Week 6, where he aggravated the injury early in the game. After returning for 2 games, he was suspended for PEDs(assumingly to rehab the injury). Sustained a concussion in the playoff loss against the Jags. In 2018 he dealt with a hamstring and knee injury and was ultimately placed on IR after only playing in 5 games. All the while, Chris Hubbard and Matt Feiler filled in pretty well for him (especially Hubbard, who signed a big deal with the Browns after 2017). This made Gilbert expendable, thus leading to the trade. This is a great trade for the Cardinals. Giving up a day 3 pick for a chance to get a Top 5 RT is something any team should do. The Steelers are in good hands though.
Coty Sensabaugh - Coty Sensabaugh wasn't supposed to be starting in 2018. I didn't even think he was gonna make the roster, considering the fact that he was benched in 2017. He ended up making the team. He didn't start immediately but after Artie Burns disastrous performance in Cincinnati, he made his way back to the lineup. And admittedly, he wasn't awful. Much better than in 2017. PFF gave some praise. That stat is a little misleading but that's beside the point. The biggest issue is that he would make NO effort on the ball at times. It was almost like he would see the ball coming and just stop covering his man. Bizarre. When the biggest issue with your defense is you don't make big plays, someone like Sensabaugh doesn't help the cause. He somehow ended up with 6 PDs, but 3 of them came against Jeff Driskel and Joe Flacco. Again, not awful, but not what this team needs to make the leap.
Jon Bostic - I don't like to say I told you so, but I knew that the Bostic signing would not work out after the Steelers did not draft a single linebacker in the following draft. Bostic was not this highly-coveted free agent that prohibited the Steelers from bringing in competition. I still thought linebacker was one of the Steeler's biggest needs going into the draft. The Steelers only have themselves to blame for what happened during the season.
Bostic was not an awful run defender, but he wasn't that great. Not as good as Vince Williams. The issue came in pass defense. He was GOD AWFUL. Constant blown coverages. Not really playing the ball(partly because he was never close enough). Part of that is due to the scheme. The Steelers put themselves in a bad situation that they had to try and remedy. But he still was rough. I try to go back and watch all of the games from last season. He struggled mightily against Jared Cook. Not that Cook is bad, but it almost seemed like they were in two different leagues. After the Denver game, Bostic was essentially benched and didn't see more than 18 snaps in a single game. Bostic is currently unsigned after being cut.
Jesse James - Jesse James had some pretty successful seasons in Pittsburgh. Even with the emergence of Vance McDonald, James arguably had his best season yet. I was not shocked when he decided to leave. We weren't gonna pay him a ton if he wanted to stay and he probably would have been behind McDonald. Funny enough, Lions drafted TJ Hockenson in the first round and I would guess he would become the #1 tight end sooner rather than later. I think the contract was a little rich for my taste. James was just a very average tight end that isn't that athletic.
Morgan Burnett - This was another signing that I liked when it happened and then my feelings changed after the draft. This time, I was wrong about what I thought would happen. Unfortunately, the results were not any better. Burnett got through the first 2 games of the season before getting injured. He came back for the 2nd Cleveland game but never played at a consistent level. He did have some good moments but Burnett's Steeler career will most likely be remembered by blown coverages. Same issue as Bostic. Playing as the third safety most of the time, Burnett was given a lot of responsibilities that he just couldn't handle. Fans thought the Steelers might cut Burnett before he requested to be released due to the way he was used(not completely in the wrong). Steelers tried to find a trade partner but couldn't. Burnett is currently on the Browns. All of the major outside UDFAs signed last year are now off of the team one year later.
LJ Fort - Fort was one of the linebackers that tried to fix the mess the Steelers left in that group. He had been with the team for a bit, but he started playing regularly in week 12 against the Chargers. Some fans and analysts seemed to like the way he played and were sad to see him go to the Eagles. I don't think he was that great. One thing I will say, he made more splash plays than most of the defense. He would jump off the screen at times, but I think he struggled in run and pass defense. Not that he was a bad player, but not someone who should have been starting. He was a great special teamer and that will be something the Steelers will have to replace.
LT Walton - Walton was a nice surprise as a 6th round pick. Never gave a ton in pass rush, but was a pretty alright run defender. Which isn't bad for a backup.
Darrius Heyward-Bey - This is the biggest hit to the special teams unit. HeyBey was one of our best special teamers. He also was a great role model and overall a great guy. Gonna miss him.
Player Position Old Team Length(Years) Average Cap Hit
Steven Nelson CB Chiefs 3 $8,500,000
Mark Barron LB Rams 2 $6,000,000
Donte Moncrief WR Jaguars 2 $4,500,000
Ben Roethlisberger QB Steelers +2 $34,000,000
Maurkice Pouncey C Steelers +2 $11,000,000
Eli Rogers WR Steelers +1 $3,030,000
Tyson Alualu DE Steelers +2 $2,875,000
Ramon Foster LG Steelers 2 $4,125,000
Anthony Chickillo EDGE Steelers 2 $4,000,000
BJ Finney IOL Steelers 1 $3,095,000
Xavier Grimble TE Steelers 1 $2,025,000
Jordan Berry P Steelers 2 $1,850,000
Daniel McCullers NT Steelers 2 $1,375,000
Kameron Canaday LS Steelers 1 $720,000
Matt Feiler OT Steelers 1 $645,000
Mike Hilton CB Steelers 1 $645,000
Jordan Dangerfield S Steelers 1 $645,000
Zach Banner OT Steelers 1 $645,000
Steven Nelson - As many of you may know, the Steelers are not big spenders in free agency. They would rather develop their own and then refill through the draft. In the past three years, I would say the Steelers have signed 3 "significant" outside free agents each year. Nelson is the first and highest-paid one this year. In fact, Nelson is the highest-paid outside free agent in Steelers history. That says a lot about how the Steelers approach free agency. Nelson spent last year on the Chiefs, playing almost every snap on the outside. PFF had some alright things to say. I've watched him in a couple of Chief games and I did like what I saw. The consensus among Chief fans seems to be that Nelson is alright, not a #1 caliber corner, but will work as a number 2. Also say he can get a bit handsy. Nelson has played on the inside and the outside in his career. He primarily played outside last year and he has said that's where he would like to play this year. I think that is where the Steelers are going to play him, seeing as the team is severely lacking a #2 OCB. However, Nelson's flexibility was talked about early in the offseason by Mike Tomlin. I could see scenarios that move Nelson in the slot limitedly to give playing time for a certain 3rd round rookie. I only see that happening if said rookie shows a ton early. Either way, this signing is great and was desperately needed.
Mark Barron - Barron started his career in Tampa as a safety. He was traded midway through his rookie contract to the then St. Louis Rams. That is when he started to play the linebacker position. Barron signed a 5-year contract with the Rams after his rookie contract. Barron played a significant amount in the next 3 years before being cut after the 2018-2019 season. Before anyone speculates where he will play, Barron said he is playing linebacker with the Steelers. This is interesting because saying he's only playing linebacker brings up questions in regards to how he will be used in sub-packages and things of that sort. Being a former safety, you would think Barron would be pretty good in coverage. But after watching him in a few Rams games last year, that is not necessarily the case. Zone coverage was alright, but he got beat a few times in the 3-4 games that I watched. Run defense was alright. The consensus from Rams fans were a little all over the place. We'll talk about this more when we get to the starting lineups, but it will be very interesting to see what Tomlin decides to do to start the season. The signing was definitely needed, but how Barron is going to be used is still very much up in the air.
Donte Moncrief - After his rookie contract in Indianapolis was up, Moncrief signed a 1 year prove-it deal with the surging Jacksonville Jaguars. Though if I remember correctly, Moncrief was talking about getting paid way before his rookie contract was up(correct me if I'm wrong). The Jaguars fell back to the pack in 2018, largely due to the offense. They ranked bottom 10 in many offensive statistics. Bortles was not good, Fournette missed time and wasn't that effective when he did play, receiving options were not good enough, and the offensive line gave up the 3rd most sacks in the league. The offense was anemic. Moncrief is inarguably coming into a better situation than he was in Jacksonville. Many of his 89 targets last year were ruled "uncatchable". However, it's not fair to say that his inadequacies last year were all due to his supporting cast. Moncrief has never been an amazing receiver. His best year came in 2015, totaling 64 catches, 733 yards, and 6 touchdowns playing second fiddle to T.Y. Hilton. I'll talk about this more when we get to the starting lineup/training camp battles, but Moncrief absolutely has a chance to be the #2 this year.
Ben Roethlisberger and Maurkice Pouncey - I'm putting these extensions together because they are in pretty similar situations. Both are getting older and have been the face for the Steelers offense for years. Maurkice Pouncey has even said that the year Ben retires, he will retire as well. And I believe him. Both of them are important cogs in the machine known as the Steelers offense.
Eli Rogers - After tearing his ACL in the 2017 playoffs, Rogers re-signed with the Steelers after a couple of free-agent visits. He didn't end up playing until Week 15 but he looked alright in those last three games. He's back. Wide receiver is really up for grabs this year and it's important to see how Rogers will look after his limited time.
Tyson Alualu - One of the only recent free-agent signings that has worked out, Alualu worked out a 2-year extension to his contract. He has been a super solid backup and absolutely deserved this extension. He was better in 2017 than in 2018, but I think he has a chance to get back to that level. If someone were to get hurt, it wouldn't be the end of the world is Alualu had to start. Far from ideal, but he gives you enough to survive on defense.
Ramon Foster - Foster has been with the team for 10 years, but it seemed like 2018 could have been his last season. I can't seem to find the article now, but I swear I saw a quote that said that he was going to be asking for a lot of money, or something of that sort. That made it seem like he might be on a different team in 2019. But thankfully, the Steelers and Foster agreed to a contract (that really isn't that much money so IDK if I was imagining things). I don't think it would have been the end of the world if Foster went elsewhere. BJ Finney has looked good in his starts and Foster is getting older. The Steelers don't usually extend a good amount of money to older free agents. However, Foster has been a rock in the middle of the line and you can't let someone like him go.
BJ Finney - Finney, a former UDFA, had a 2nd round tender placed on him this offseason. He has started at least one game every year since 2016 and has performed well. Many thought this would be the year the Steelers would let go of Ramon Foster and have Finney be the starter. With the Steelers re-signing Foster, things are looking like he is gonna have to wait at least one more year for a chance to be a starter. Finney will be a UFA after the 2019-2020 season. He might look to greener pastures after this year if he can't crack the starting lineup. There is not much the Steelers can do about that unless they want to give him a starter contract but have him be a backup for one more year, but that does not seem like a smart idea. Until then, Finney will be an excellent backup and will be ready to start if/whenever the time comes.
Matt Feiler - When Marcus Gilbert went down in Week 2, Feiler was the guy that stepped in. Feiler had only started one game before this season(a meaningless Week 17 game against the 0-16 Browns), so we really didn't know what to expect when he played. He held his own. Feiler was an ERFA after the season and he signed his tender at the end of March. Feiler is going to have some competition this season for the starting right tackle spot, but at the very least, Feiler will be a pretty good backup.
Anthony Chickillo - Chickillo has been a backup EDGE and special teamer for all of his career. I personally don't think he is that great as an EDGE and him being the third rusher has been a detriment to the defense. He always performs in the preseason but he doesn't do much when he does get a chance to play. He is a good special teamer but he can't be relied on to give you production off the EDGE.
Mike Hilton - As with Matt Feiler, Hilton was also an ERFA after the season. Hilton had a good start to the year, but then suffered an elbow injury that took him out for one game but hobbled him for some of the season. 2017 was a great year for him. 2018 was good, but you definitely could tell that either the injury or something else was keeping him from being his best. He wasn't as successful blitzing and he gave up the game-deciding touchdown against the Raiders. Hilton absolutely is still a good player but he has something to prove after last year. One thing to keep an eye on; Hilton has not signed his tender yet. He wants a new contract. Hilton signed his tender on the reporting day of training camp. Though he wanted a new contract, Steelers just don't have the funds to do that at this time and I bet they like having control of him for at least one more year.
Seems like I've written a lot more than last year. The draft section usually goes next, but it just missed fitting in here. So I know it isn't the most convenient, but I have the rest of the sections linked down below.

Draft

Other Offseason News

Projected Starting Lineup

53 Man Roster and Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

Schedule Predictions

Training Camp Battles

Offensive and Defensive Schemes

Shout Outs
Once again, Thank y'all for reading(some of it lol) every year. I appreciate it.
To skepticismissurvival and PlatypusOfDeath - For allowing me to write this.
To /steelers
To Astro63 and Dminnick for offering to help
To /NFL_Draft: For the continued support. Along the same lines, thanks to anyone who had kind words towards any of my videos last year. Greatly appreciated!!!
Link to hub
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2019.02.26 17:35 itsnotyellowfever 32 Teams/32 Days: Day 10 – Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos

Division: AFC West
Record: 6-10, 3rd in AFC West
Record Splits: 2-4 vs. AFC West, 2-2 vs. AFC North, 2-2 vs. NFC West, 0-2 vs. 2017 4th Place Teams (Jets, Texans)
Playoffs: He is not having the time of his life

Statistics

Offense/Defense
Team Statistics Offense Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 20.6 24th 21.8 13th
Total Yards Per Game 350.1 19th 365.1 22nd
Pass Yards Per Game 230.9 19th 246.4 22nd
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.7 T-24th 7.7 T-23rd
Rush Yards Per Game 119.2 12th 119.6 21st
Yards Per Rush 4.9 T-3rd 4.5 17th
Total Turnovers (Offense)/Turnovers Forced (Defense) 21 18th 29 T-8th
First Downs Per Game 20.0 20th 19.9 16th
Third Down Conversions 33% (69 for 207) 28th 39% (82 for 211) 17th
Penalties/Penalty Yardage 125/985 31st/27th 123/1,006 28th/26th
Average Time of Possession 28:58 28th 31:02 24th
Special Teams
Team Statistic Broncos Special Teams Rank
Kickoff Yards Per Return 20.1 28th
Punt Yards Per Return 4.4 32nd
Gross Yards Per Punt 44.5 19th
Net Yards Per Punt 38.3 28th
Kickoff Coverage (Yards Per Return Against) 20.8 4th
Punt Coverage (Yards Per Return Against) 10.5 29th

Coaching and Other Personnel Changes

Outgoing Incoming
Brock Olivo (Special Teams Coordinator) Tom McMahon (Special Teams Coordinator)
Eric Studesville (Running Backs Coach) Curtis Modkins (Running Backs Coach)
Tyke Tolbert (Wide Receivers Coach) Zach Azzanni (Wide Receivers Coach)
Fred Pagac (Outside Linebackers Coach) Bill Musgrave (Full-Time Offensive Coordinator)
Johnnie Lynn (Defensive Backs Coach) Greg Williams (Defensive Backs Coach)
Jeff Davidson (Offensive Line Coach) Sean Kugler (Offensive Line Coach)
Tom Heckert Jr. (Senior Personnel Adviser) Mike Sullivan (Quarterbacks Coach)
All six outgoing coaches were relieved of their duties on January 1st, 2018 after the last game of the season.
Sean Kugler and Chris Strausser replaced Davidson on the offensive line, a unit that finished ranked 24th in the league by Pro Football Focus. Mike Sullivan took over as QB coach, coming over to Denver after two years as offensive coordinator with the Giants. The numbers posted at the QB position (19th in pass yards per game, 24th in yards per pass attempt) in Denver were not enough to keep him around after the 2018 season. Two coaches that were able to keep their job despite the changes after 2018 were RB coach Curtis Modkins (Broncos would finish the year 12th in rushing yards per game, 3rd in yards per carry) and WR coach Zach Azzanni, two former Bears coaches who spent time with soon-to-be Broncos coach Vic Fangio.
John Bowlen also sold a portion of his minority stake in the Broncos to the Broncos, further solidifying Pat Bowlen’s majority ownership of the team.

Draft Picks

*=Compensatory Draft Pick
Draft Pick Player College
1 (5) Bradley Chubb NC State
2 (40) Courtland Sutton SMU
3 (71) Royce Freeman Oregon
3 (99)* Isaac Yiadom Boston College
4 (106) Josey Jewell Iowa
4 (113) DaeSean Hamilton Penn State
5 (156) Troy Fumagalli Wisconsin
6 (183) Sam Jones Arizona State
6 (217)* Keishawn Berria Washington
7 (226) David Williams Arkansas
UDFA Phillip Lindsay Colorado
· Bradley Chubb and Phillip Lindsay emerged as the stars of this draft class in their rookie years. Chubb broke the Broncos’ rookie sack record with 12, while Lindsay accumulated the second-most rushing yards by an undrafted rookie in league history. He also became the first undrafted offensive rookie to make a Pro Bowl.
· Sutton was given a first-round grade by John Elway and started the season out as the team’s #3 wide receiver but wound up as the #1 option at the end of the year through a combination of trades and untimely injuries. He struggled with being the primary focus of opposing defenses but finished the season with a glowing 16.7 yards per reception.
· Hamilton missed a few games mid-season with a sprained MCL but came back and served as the team’s primary slot receiver when Emmanuel Sanders went down for the year, hauling in at least 5 passes in each of the team’s final four games.
· Freeman’s rookie season was vastly overshadowed by Phillip Lindsay’s breakout. The Oregon product finished with 521 rushing yards on 4.0 yards per carry and should open next season firmly entrenched as the #2 back behind Lindsay.
· Yiadom started the year on special teams, but an injury to Chris Harris Jr. and poor play by Tramaine Brock allowed Yiadom to see more playing time late in the year. He finished his rookie season with his first career INT off Philip Rivers in the season finale.
· Jewell started his season out hot, being ranked as high as #2 among all linebackers in the league early on by Pro Football Focus but cooled down once entering a snap rotation with fellow inside linebackers Todd Davis and Brandon Marshall.
· Jones saw very little action in his first year, as the interior line is a strength of the Broncos’ offense. He rotated in in relief, but otherwise did not see the field much.
· Fumagalli missed his entire rookie year with a sports hernia surgery. He’ll open 2019 competing with Jake Butt and Jeff Heuerman for the starting TE spot.
· Bierria was relegated to special team duties in his rookie year, only recording 4 tackles on the year.
· Williams was the lone draft pick of the group who failed to make the team’s final roster.

2017 Key Free Agents and Departures

Player 2018 Team
C.J. Anderson Carolina Panthers/Los Angeles Rams (Released)
Riley Dixon New York Giants (Traded)
Todd Davis Denver Broncos (Re-signed)
Aqib Talib Los Angeles Rams (Traded)
Bennie Fowler III Chicago Bears (Signed)
Trevor Siemian Minnesota Vikings (Traded)
Virgil Green Los Angeles Chargers (Signed)
Cody Latimer New York Giants (Signed)
Corey Nelson Philadelphia Eagles (Signed)
Brock Osweiler Miami Dolphins (Signed)
Billy Turner Denver Broncos (Re-signed)
Matt Paradis Denver Broncos (Re-signed)
Most of the Broncos’ key players were under contract through the 2018 season. Todd Davis and Matt Paradis – the latter of whom has become one of the best centers in the league – were re-signed by the team. The most notable losses to free agency were Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer, two second-string receivers, Virgil Green, the team’s starting tight end from last year, and Brock Osweiler, a former starter for the team. Most of the players they lost would fail to produce at a level high enough such that their production was irreplaceable. The most notable of them – Osweiler – started a few games for the Dolphins in the absence of Ryan Tannehill.
In the trade department, punter Riley Dixon was traded to the Giants for a conditional draft pick in 2019. Trevor Siemian, once a starter for the team, was traded to the Vikings for a fifth-round pick. The most notable departure of the season came when the team agreed to send Pro Bowl CB Aqib Talib to the Rams for draft picks, signifying the end of Denver’s “No Fly Zone” secondary. C.J. Anderson, another key part of the NFC Champion Rams’ late-season push, was cut after the additions of Freeman in the draft.

Notable New Acquisitions

Player Position 2017 Team
Tramaine Brock CB Minnesota Vikings
Adam Jones CB Cincinnati Bengals
Su'a Cravens S Washington Redskins (via trade)
Case Keenum QB Minnesota Vikings
Jared Veldheer OT Arizona Cardinals (via trade)
Marquette King P Oakland Raiders
Gino Gradkowski C Carolina Panthers
The Broncos’ 2018 offseason was one to forget from an acquisition standpoint, signing numerous players who were cut after only a few weeks on the roster. Marquette King was signed as a replacement for Riley Dixon but was cut after sustaining an injury in favor of Colby Wadman. Adam Jones was brought over from Cincinnati but only lasted 7 games before being released. Tramaine Brock was benched late in the year in favor of Isaac Yiadom after spending most of the year as the #3 corner. Veldheer came over in a trade after struggling for years at both tackle spots in Arizona. However, the pièce de résistance of the offseason was Case Keenum. After a season in which the Broncos rotated between Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch at QB, the Broncos firmly entrenched themselves in the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. When Cousins signed with Minnesota, the Broncos signed Keenum over from the Vikings to be the piece needed to bring the Broncos back to Super Bowl contention. As the season progressed, Keenum struggled to complete passes at an efficient rate, completing just 62% of his attempts with a passer rating of 81.2.

Season Summary

The Broncos entered 2018 looking to improve on their 5-11, last place finish in 2017. They were also looking to avoid consecutive losing seasons for the first time in almost half a century. In doing so, they added Bradley Chubb in the draft hoping to create a lethal pass rushing duo with Von Miller as well as adding two running backs to complement Devontae Booker in the backfield. Head coach Vance Joseph returned to the team despite some believing that he should have been let go after last year.
The biggest step the team took in trying to return to contention was signing Vikings QB Case Keenum to a 2-year, $36M contract. Keenum was a major piece in the Vikings making it to the NFC Championship the year prior, throwing for a career high in TDs while also setting career marks for completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating. The belief was that Keenum could replicate his success in Minnesota and lead the Broncos back to the postseason. If he couldn’t, the seats of both Joseph and GM John Elway would be getting a lot warmer.
The season started strong with two wins to open the year, but quickly fell apart as a 1-6 stretch had the team at 3-6 entering their Week 11 game with the then 8-2 Chargers. A three-game winning streak, including victories over the Chargers and the 7-2-1 Steelers gave fans hope that the team could make a late-season playoff push, but season-ending injuries to Emmanuel Sanders and Chris Harris Jr. as well as a bad loss to the 49ers quickly squashed them. The Broncos finished the year on a four-game losing streak and closed out the year with a 6-10 record. As a result, head coach Vance Joseph was shown the door one day after the season’s end.
Arguably the most frustrating aspect of the Broncos’ season was the way they played up or down to their opponents. An art mastered by the Steelers, the Broncos lost games to bad teams (see: Jets, 49ers, Raiders) as often as they beat good ones (see: Seahawks, Chargers, Steelers). The team also gave the Chiefs (twice), Texans and Rams some of their toughest fights of the year.

Weekly Game Review
Week 1: vs. Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
The Broncos kicked off the season with a rematch of a Super Bowl that I’m almost certain never happened to Broncos fans. In his debut game in a Broncos uniform, Keenum showed both flashes of brilliance and causes for concern with a 329-yard, 3 TD, 3 INT game. Offensively, Emmanuel Sanders and Phillip Lindsay starred with over 230 yards from scrimmage between the two. On defense, it was two familiar faces in Chris Harris Jr. and Von Miller delivering the key plays against Seattle, limiting them to 64 rushing yards on the day. An Adam Jones interception of Russell Wilson sealed the Broncos’ first win of the season. W 27-24. Record 1-0.
Week 2: vs. Oakland Raiders (0-1)
Following a win over Seattle in Week 1, the Broncos got an early taste of divisional football as the Raiders came to town. The offense struggled mightily early on, with four of their six first half drives ending in punts. A fifth drive ended in a Rashaan Melvin interception at the Oakland 18. The defense struggled to stop Derek Carr through the air (29/32, 288 Yards, 1 TD) but kept the Raiders from the end zone for most of the afternoon. The turning point of the game came when Shaquil Barrett blocked Mike Nugent’s extra point attempt, a play that proved to be the difference in the final score. The Broncos got on the board early in the 3rd with a Royce Freeman TD run and would score on each of their four second-half possessions, including a game-winning field goal by Brandon McManus. W 20-19. Record 2-0.
Week 3: at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
Lack of offense and discipline proved to be the Broncos’ downfall in a loss to the Joe Flacco-led Ravens. The game started off well enough for Denver, with Joseph Jones blocking a Sam Koch punt which turned into a Royce Freeman TD run. On the ensuing drive, the Ravens answered with a TD thanks in part to penalties on Isaac Yiadom and Todd Davis giving Baltimore 20 free yards on a 63-yard drive. The Broncos would respond with an Emmanuel Sanders TD run, but would end their scoring on the day there, as the Ravens would close out the game scoring 20 unanswered points through the final three quarters on their way to a win. Of the Broncos’ final nine offensive possessions, seven ended in a Marquette King punt, one ended in an interception, and one in a turnover on downs. One such drive saw the offense put something together only to be brought out of field goal range thanks to penalties by Garett Bolles, Connor McGovern, and Ronald Leary. L 14-27. Record 2-1.
Week 4: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) (Monday Night Football)
The Broncos returned home to face the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs under the bright lights of “Monday Night Football”. Opposite the Broncos’ defense was sensation Patrick Mahomes II, who will be referred to as “Showtime” from here on in. The game was an exchange of scores early on, as the teams both made field goals followed by TD runs in the first half. A second Denver field goal was matched with a second Kansas City field goal to keep the game knotted up at 13. A Phillip Lindsay touchdown run and third field goal made it 23-13 Broncos early in the fourth. It was then when the Broncos could no longer keep up with Showtime. A 12 play, 95-yard, 6:20 TD drive by the Chiefs was answered with a Broncos punt. The Chiefs’ late rally was nearly stopped when Von Miller had Showtime sacked, only for Showtime to make a left-handed pass to Tyreek Hill that had the media falling over themselves for weeks to come. The Chiefs would score on that drive, and a last-ditch effort by the Broncos to win the game was stopped when Justin Houston nearly recovered a lateral attempt that was ruled incomplete. L 23-27. Record 2-2.
Week 5: at New York Jets (1-3)
The Broncos turned a solid first quarter into their most disappointing loss of the season as the Jets would outscore Denver 34-9 over the final three quarters of the game. In what would be the low point of the early part of the year, the Broncos would allow a Jets-franchise record 219 rushing yards to Isaiah Crowell as well as three passing TDs to rookie Sam Darnold. The Broncos’ defense allowed two 70+ yard scoring plays, the only game this year in which this happened. A field goal and garbage time touchdown to Demaryius Thomas made the score closer than the game was throughout the afternoon. Case Keenum would throw a season-high 51 pass attempts in this game and complete a career-high 35 of them. L 16-34. Record 2-3.
Week 6: vs. Los Angeles Rams (5-0)
For the second time in three weeks, the Broncos would face an undefeated team at home, and for the second time in three weeks, the Broncos would come close to upsetting a red-hot offense. The story of the game was the same as the week prior for Denver, with the defense failing to stop the opposing run game. Todd Gurley II gashed the Broncos’ D for 208 rushing yards and 2 scores on 7.8 yards per carry. The defense was able to limit Jared Goff (201 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick on 50% completion) and keep the game from getting out of hand by forcing the Rams to kick field goals. Bradley Chubb and Darian Stewart had spectacular games, but the offense’s inability to score early was their downfall. The run D of the Broncos had now given up 548 rushing yards to #1 backs in a three-game stretch. Their own run game was shut down as well, accumulating only 60 yards on the ground. L 20-23. Record 2-4.
Week 7: at Arizona Cardinals (1-5) (Thursday Night Football)
In what was the most dominating performance of the season and the largest blowout on Thursday Night Football in almost a year, the Broncos pounced on a weak Cardinals team early and never looked back en route to a 35-point victory. The game started with two early pick-sixes by Todd Davis and Chris Harris Jr. Wideout Emmanuel Sanders did his best Odell Beckham impression by both catching and throwing for a TD pass in the game. Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay each rushed for a TD after being held scoreless the last two games. The biggest improvement on the week, however, was seeing a run defense that had let up almost 600 yards in the last two games give up only 69 yards on the ground. This would be the only game of the season in which the Broncos had reached the 30-point plateau. W 45-10. Record 3-4.
Week 8: at Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)
The Broncos would see the Chiefs for the second time in a month, this time in Arrowhead. A Phillip Lindsay TD run gave the Broncos an early lead, and the defense was able to hold the Chiefs to a field goal on the following drive despite a key pass interference call against Bradley Roby. Brandon McManus missed a field goal on the next Denver possession, a moment that turned the game in the Chiefs’ favor. Kansas City would reach the endzone on each of their next two trips downfield, both by way of TD passes from Showtime. A TD pass to Tim Patrick brought the Broncos to within two going into halftime, but the Chiefs would bring the lead up to 16 with two more Showtime TD throws. The Broncos would score a TD on their next drive (failed two-point conversion) and picked off Showtime on the Chiefs’ following possession, but two turnovers by Keenum on two consecutive fourth quarter drives dealt serious damage to their chances of escaping with a win. The defense continued to hold, forcing 3 three-and-outs in a row. A field goal cut the Kansas City lead to 7, but the Broncos’ desperation play to force OT was unsuccessful. L 23-30. Record 3-5.
*****TRADE ALERT****\*
With the trade deadline looming, the Broncos received some interest in WR Demaryius Thomas, whose $17.5M cap hit was expendable now that the team had Courtland Sutton waiting in the wings. Ultimately, the team found a willing trade partner in the Houston Texans, who sent a fourth-round pick and a swap of seventh-round picks back to Denver in exchange for Thomas. Thomas, the last remaining piece of the record-setting 2013 offense, left Denver trailing only Rod Smith for receiving yards and receiving TDs in a Broncos uniform.
Week 9: vs. Houston Texans (5-3)
Demaryius Thomas’ first game as a Texan happened to be against his former team. A Deshaun Watson pass to the Texans’ other Thomas – TE Jordan Thomas – gave Houston an early lead. After an exchange of punts, the Broncos would get on the board with a McManus field goal and then forced the Texans to turn the ball over on downs. They failed to take advantage, as Devontae Booker fumbled deep in Broncos territory, allowing the Texans to put up another TD and jump out to a 13-3 lead. Booker would later redeem himself with a TD run. McManus would miss his second field goal in as many games late in the first half, which gave the Texans a short field to tack on another field goal. Vance Joseph tried to ice Texans’ kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn; Fairbairn’s first attempt missed wide right, but he made the second attempt after the timeout. The second half saw the Broncos take their first lead of the game on a TD pass to Jeff Heuerman, but the Texans responded with a field goal that would end up the game’s final score. Notable from this game was Vance Joseph’s 4th-quarter play calling, choosing a more passive approach and settling for a 62-yard field goal attempt instead of going for the TD late. McManus missed the attempt. L 17-19. Record 3-6.
Week 10: BYE Week
At 3-6, the Broncos’ playoff hopes were fading fast, and the team needed to string together some wins to put themselves back in the conversation. The task seemed daunting, given that their next two opponents sported a combined record of 14-4-1 entering their games against Denver. If they could make it out of these two weeks with at least one win, it would go a long way in keeping their playoff chances – and possibly Vance Joseph’s job – alive.
Week 11: at Los Angeles Chargers (7-2)
First up on the Broncos’ last-ditch playoff push was the Chargers, sporting a 7-2 record and having not lost a game since Week 3. Despite their stellar record, the Chargers also had plenty to play for in this game, as the Chiefs led the division at 9-1. Recent history was on the Broncos’ side, as the team had won 11 of their last 14 games against the Bolts. The game started off slow, as two Los Angeles field goals made up the only scoring in the first quarter. A Lindsay TD run would give the Broncos the lead early in the second and they would get the ball back minutes later when Chris Harris Jr. picked off Philip Rivers.
The Broncos would take control of the game in the third when Von Miller picked off Rivers on a screen pass, giving the Broncos a short field for Royce Freeman to punch it in on a run. Lindsay would score on another run late in the quarter, giving Denver a 20-19 lead. Clock-killing drives defined the fourth quarter as both teams would only manage field goals in the quarter. The Chargers got theirs early on and would spend most of the quarter on top. However, poor clock management by Los Angeles gave the Broncos the ball back with enough time to put together a game-winning drive. Aided by timely Chargers penalties, the Broncos were able to drive the length of the field and put Brandon McManus in position to hit a game-winning 34-yard field goal. W 23-22. Record 4-6.
Week 12: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2-1)
Following an upset win in Los Angeles, the Broncos returned to Mile High Stadium for a showdown with the Steelers, the second straight game in which their opponent entered the game with a six-game win streak. In what was a pleasant change of pace, it was the Broncos’ opponents who failed to take advantage of scoring opportunities and fell victim to untimely turnovers. A missed Pittsburgh field goal was answered with a made Denver field goal to give the Broncos an early 3-0 lead. The 12-play, 74-yard Steelers drive that followed ended in a turnover forced by Will Parks. After a Broncos punt and Steelers field goal to tie the game, the Broncos marched down the field in 6 plays and took a 10-3 lead off a Keenum TD pass to Matt LaCosse. Pittsburgh responded by moving into field goal range at the end of the half and tricked the Broncos on a fake field goal passing TD to tie the game. Early in the third, the defense was burned on a 97-yard TD reception by JuJu Smith-Schuster, but tied the game back up after a Chris Harris Jr. picked gave Denver’s offense a short field. The Broncos would later take the lead on a Lindsay TD run after another Steelers fumble gave the offense the ball back. The Steelers’ final drive of the game saw them reach the Broncos’ 3-yard line before the two-minute warning; however, Ben Roethlisberger’s pass intended for Antonio Brown was intercepted by Shelby Harris, securing the win. W 24-17. Record 5-6.
Week 13: at Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)
After back-to-back wins over teams firmly in the AFC playoff picture, the Broncos found new life in their playoff hopes. Week 13 had them travel to face a Bengals team missing Andy Dalton and playing a hobbled A.J. Green, who would suffer a season-ending toe injury later in this game. This game started out as an offense to the term “offense”, with neither team advancing past the opponent’s 43 until midway through the second quarter, when McManus missed a 50-yard FG attempt. The first points of the game came when Phillip Lindsay scored from 6 yards out at the two-minute warning and, despite the Bengals driving down the field on their next drive, the Broncos still held a 4-point lead after a Cincinnati FG. The Broncos would extend their lead in the 3rd, with Keenum finding Courtland Sutton through the air and Lindsay scoring on a 65-yard run. The Bengals would cut the lead to 21-10 late in the quarter and would find life after Royce Freeman fumbled, but would not muster up any more offense from that point, and the Broncos kicked a field goal in the fourth to reach the game’s final score. W 24-10. Record 6-6.
Week 14: at San Francisco 49ers (2-10)
Now having rattled off three straight wins, the Broncos are making noise at a potential run for the conference’s 6 seed. Unfortunately for them, #1 wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders tore his Achilles in practice, ending his season and leaving the team with a major hole to fill. Rookie Courtland Sutton would take over in Sanders’ place as the team traveled to Santa Clara to face the 2-10 49ers. The Broncos fell behind 20-0 before the half, as George Kittle racked up 210 receiving yards against the defense, most of which came in the first half. The Broncos tried mounting a comeback in the second half, but early offensive shortcomings (70 yards of offense in their first 6 possessions combined) allowed the 49ers to hang on and placing a major speed bump on the Broncos’ January ambitions. The team would also lose CB Chris Harris Jr. for the season to a broken fibula in this game. L 14-20. Record 6-7.
Week 15: vs. Cleveland Browns (5-7-1) (Thursday Night Football on Saturday)
The Broncos hosted the resurgent Browns in a Saturday night football special. After having lost to the 49ers last week, every game became must-win if the Broncos wanted a shot at the playoffs. The Broncos would take a 10-7 lead in the second quarter but would end the first half tied after a Browns field goal and Keenum and Baker Mayfield exchanging interceptions. Another turnover forced by the Denver D would allow the team to kick another field goal, giving them a 13-10 lead entering the 4th. Keenum threw his second INT of the game early in the final frame, allowing the Browns to regain the lead on a Mayfield TD pass. With just under 12 minutes left in the game, the Broncos would go on a clock-chewing 13-play, 64-yard drive that lasted over 7 minutes. With a 4th-and-1 at the Browns’ 6, Vance Joseph – in his most questionable move of the season – elected to kick a field goal. Trailing by 1 with only two timeouts left, Denver would need a defensive stop in order to keep their hopes of winning the game and staying in the playoff picture alive. They would get it on a failed 4th down conversion by the Browns; however, the Broncos’ final drive ended at midfield, with two incomplete passes and a Jabrill Peppers sack putting the nail in the coffin. With the Titans’ win over the Giants the next day, the Broncos were officially eliminated from playoff contention. L 16-17. Record 6-8.
Week 16: at Oakland Raiders (3-11) (Monday Night Football)
With playoffs out of the picture, the Broncos looked to finish the season strong for the sake of both morale and to save the jobs of many coaches on the team. Their penultimate game of the season would be an emotional one for their opponents, as it would be (as I am writing this) the final game the Raiders played at the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, their home for the last 24 years. The game started out poorly for the Broncos, as the Raiders would return the punt 99 yards for a score and would add on another 10 points in the second to leave Denver down 17-0 at the half. The Broncos would get on the scoreboard in the third, but the Raiders would respond with another TD in the 4th to make it 24-7. A late rally that saw Denver score another TD and force a three-and-out was quelled when Keenum threw interceptions on consecutive drives. The Raiders kicked another field goal between the two Keenum picks to seal the game. L 14-27. Record 6-9.
Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
The final game of the Broncos season was a rematch against the Chargers, who they upset in Los Angeles in Week 11. Despite the defense’s spectacular start (6 of the 7 Chargers’ first drives ended in either a punt or interception), the offense was unable to do anything all afternoon, the low point being the Chargers recovering a Keenum fumble for a TD. The Broncos ended the half with a field goal, aided by Jahleel Addae fumbling an interception that was recovered by Denver. Down 14-3 in the 4th, the Broncos scored, but were unable to add any more points after, as the ensuing 2-point attempt was intercepted and returned to give the Chargers another two points. Another Chargers TD and a Broncos turnover on downs would be the end of Denver’s season, as they would go down quietly in a three-score loss. L 9-27. Record 6-10.

Season Highlights

Emmanuel Sanders does his best Odell Beckham impression
Von Miller becomes the Broncos’ all-time sack leader
It always feels good to hurt a divisional opponent!
Shelby Harris picks off Big Ben to seal the win
Bradley Chubb breaks the Broncos’ rookie sack record
Phillip Lindsay, Phillip Lindsay, and more Phillip Lindsay

Season Lowlights

Giving up 219 rushing yards to Isaiah Crowell…
…and then another 208 to Todd Gurley the following week
Settling for a field goal against the Texans…
…and watching their playoff chances disappear by doing it again
The AFC West and pick-2s: Name a more iconic duo…
…the Broncos and giving up record-setting performances

Season Awards, Pro Bowl, and All-Pros


Position Evaluations, Coaching Evaluation, 2019 Information, and Final Words in the Comments

Congratulations to former Broncos CB Champ Bailey and team owner Pat Bowlen for being named to the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2019!

Thanks

Thanks to:
  1. All those in nfl that choose to read this and give their feedback on it. It's my first foray into the 32 Teams/32 Days series and I hope that you all enjoy what I've put together!
  2. u/therealDoctorKay for giving me a shot at doing one of the write-ups for this series!
  3. DenverBroncos for not crucifying me the minute they found out that a Chargers fan would be doing their write-up. I promised leading into this that I would put my flair away for this write-up and would do my damnedest to treat it with the same respect and effort that I would have if it was the Chargers I was writing about.
32 Teams/32 Days Hub
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2018.12.04 23:05 CreamsicleMamba VORP and VOBP and how it can help you value players

Note: I am not a fantasy football expert or statistician, if you see any inaccuracies or holes in my logic let me know in the comments! Also, I'm going to be using standard scoring throughout the article, but all of the concepts in this post apply to all scoring types.
And for those wondering why I’m posting this right now when most leagues have stopped trading, I’m hoping to make some revisions based on feedback I receive and post it again at the beginning of next season. So you can think of this as a rough draft.
Trading in fantasy football can be tricky. Many people will value their own players higher than other teams, a lot of people consider their studs to be completely off-limits, and a good amount of people just simply don't know how to value players. Hopefully this guide will help you have an easier time in finding good deals that will appeal to both players. Welcome to the wonderful world of VORP and VOBP.
What is VORP?
VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player. It's a statistic that was first used in baseball, and anybody familiar with "Moneyball" knows that statistics and baseball are pretty closely intertwined. These Moneyball-like statistics don't work as well with football, there's so many different positions, many of which are hardly measured by stats, so using numbers to value football players is exponentially harder. However, fantasy football is very much a statistics game, so VORP is useful for us. Here's how wikipedia defines VORP:
"In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic popularized by Keith Woolner that demonstrates how much a hitter or pitcher contributes to their team in comparison to a replacement-level player who is an average fielder at that position and a below average hitter. A replacement player performs at 'replacement level,' which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as 'freely available talent.'"
So in FF terms, it essentially means how many more points per game a player will give us than the top player of the same position on the free agency market (for the rest of the article I'm going to refer to this player as the BFA). It's calculated by:
(Expected Points Per Game of Player A) - (Expected Points Per Game of the BFA) = (Player A's VORP)
Notes: For the rest of the article, I'm going to refer to Expected Points Per Game as EPPG. And for the sake of simplicity, in this write-up I'm going to use each player's avg PPG for this year as their EPPG. But it goes without saying that, in real trades, you should keep in mind injuries, schedule, opportunities, and other factors that would affect that player when determining EPPG. Nick Chubb is averaging 11.4 PPG on the season, but since Carlos Hyde was traded he's averaged 17.9 PPG. 17.9 is a much more accurate EPPG.
For example, if you're in a league where your starting QB is Cam Newton with a 22.2 EPPG and the BFA QB is Dak Prescott, who we expect to keep averaging 17.1 EPPG, we get Cam's VORP by subtracting Dak's PPG from Cam's. 22.2 - 17.1 = 5.1, so Cam has a VORP of 5.1.
This stat will differ between leagues. The larger the league, the higher a player’s VORP will be. Let's say we're in a large league where Cam is still our QB, but instead of Dak, the BFA QB is Eli Manning with an EPPG of 14.7. 22.2 – 14.7 = 7.5, so Cam has a VORP of 7.7 in this league.
How can we use this?
VORP by itself has limited usage but it can be useful for roughly evaluating trades. We can use it to determine that Adrian Peterson with a VORP of 5.3 and Lamar Miller with a VORP of 3.3 is not enough value for our Alvin Kamera with a VORP of 11.6. Even though if you combine Miller and Peterson's PPG it'd be more than Kamera’s, when using VORP we see that the EPPG that Kamera gives us over the BFA outshines Peterson and Miller combined.
It can also show how much more important elite players are in smaller leagues. If we’re in a small league where the BFA WR is Corey Davis (8.7 EPPG), trading our Adam Thielen (5.7 VORP) for Robert Woods and Emmanual Sanders (4.8 VORP total) isn't very appealing. But if we are in a larger league where the BFA receiver is Taylor Gabriel (5.8 EPPG), the idea of trading Thielen (7.6 VORP) for Woods and Sanders (8.6 VORP combined) suddenly looks like a good value.
Note: If a trade causes you to drop a player that then becomes the BFA at that position, it's often a good idea to use their EPPG in your calculations
But things like positions and benches start to cause some problems with VORP. Let's say that Travis Kelce and Phillip Lindsey have identical VORPs in your league. If I'm deep at RB but don't have a decent TE, I'd likely be willing to give more value for Kelce than Lindsey, while a Zach Ertz owner that is thin at RB would give more for Lindsey. Yet, the VORP of Kelce and Lindsey would be the same for both players since their team’s needs don’t affect it.
That's where our friend VOBP comes into play.
What is VOBP?
VOBP stands for Value Over Bench Player. (It's also a term I just made up, and it doesn't roll off the tongue very well, so if a better term already exists let me know.) A player's VOBP is how many more EPPG you'd get from them than your bench player at the same position with the highest EPPG, which we'll call the BBB (Best Bench Player). If there's no bench player with the same position, or the BFA has a higher EPPG than any of your bench players at that position, that position's BFA is the BBB. We calculate a player's VOBP with:
(EPG of Player A) - (EPG of the BBB) = (Player A's VOBP)
For example, if our QB is Patrick Mahomes with an EPPG of 27.7, and the only QB on our bench in Kirk Cousins with an EPPG of 18.7, Mahomes has a VOBP of 9.0. If instead Mahomes was on a team that has Ben Roethlisberger (EPPG of 22.1) as it’s backup, Mahomes would have a VOBP of 5.6.
Unlike VORP, a player's VOBP will change for each owner. Bench players have a VOBP of 0.0, and the better an owner's bench is, the lower a starter's VOBP will be.
How can we use VOBP?
VOBP gives you a good idea of how many points that player is providing for your team. If my fantasy team combines for 100.0 PPG and a player with a VOBP of 3.0 has a season ending injury, I’d expect my team to average 97.0 PPG, as the replacement for the injured player gets us 3.0 less EPPG.
We can use VOBP to determine how much value in EPPG we should be expecting in return for our players. To continue the previous example of Mahomes with a VOBP of 9.0, if we’re trading him away, we’d ideally want to improve more than 9 points in other positions to make up for the 9.0 points we’re losing at the QB position.
Like VORP, VOBP is an incomplete stat by itself. If I have a great RB on my bench, I shouldn’t trade him away for a mediocre WR just because it’ll make my starting lineup better. But now that we’re familiar with both concepts, we can start to delve into how they help our trades.
Trading Guidelines
Using VORP and VOBP can help establish a couple rules to determine whether or not a trade is good for us or not. The two biggest things I ask are:
1. Is the total VORP I’m receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP I’m trading away?
2. Will this increase the total EPPG of my starting lineup?
Depending on how you answer those questions…
Scenario 1:
  1. Is the total VORP I’m receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP I’m trading away? - YES
  2. Will this increase the total EPPG of my starting lineup? - YES
This is a good trade. You’re improving your starting lineup without losing value.
You should look for these trades whenever you can, from owners who are lacking in a position that you’re bountiful in or from owners who are frustrated with certain players and willing to sell low on them.
Scenario 2:
  1. Is the total VORP I’m receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP I’m trading away? - YES
  2. Will this increase the total EPPG of my starting lineup? - NO
This is a value trade. Your starting line-up gets worse but you’re gaining value.
You should look for these trades when you have a good record and can afford to store value on your bench or you think you’ll be able to quickly flip the players you’re receiving to improve your starting lineup. Make sure you’re getting significant value in VORP if you want to do this.
Scenario 3:
  1. Is the total VORP I’m receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP I’m trading away? - NO
  2. Will this increase the total EPPG of my starting lineup? - YES
This is a desperation trade. Your starting lineup gets better but you’re losing value.
You should look for these trades when you need to start winning immediately and your fellow owners are being stingy about trading your position of need. Make sure you aren’t making desperation trades after week 1, you should generally be making these when you’re stuck in a hole and need to turn things around quickly.
Scenario 4:
  1. Is the total VORP I’m receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP I’m trading away? - NO
  2. Will this increase the total EPPG of my starting lineup? - NO
This is a bad trade. Avoid these.
If we’re offering a trade, it’s a good idea to also apply these two questions from the perspective of the owner we’re trading with. Are they in a position to make a desperation trade or a value trade and can we use that to our advantage? Now, you don’t necessarily have to start with an offer that makes sense for your opponent, starting with a lowball offer and hoping to catch a gullible fish is a perfectly valid strategy. But I personally like to start with an offer that make sense for both players to make sure they take it seriously. A lot of owners won’t want to go through the trouble of haggling with you if you start with a clearly lopsided trade.
Applying VORP and VOBP
Here's a sample roster, complete with EPPG, VORP, and VOBP for each player. We'll start by listing the BFE's for each position as well so we can determine the VORP.
Note: Although you can use VORP and VOBP with defenses and kickers, points for those positions vary so much that I'm not going to include them here.
Best Free Agents:
Pos Name EPPG
QB Derek Carr 14.8
RB Frank Gore 6.5
WR Donte Moncrief 6.0
TE Mark Andrews 4.2
Our Roster:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP
QB Patrick Mahomes QB 27.7 12.9 6.1
RB Ezekiel Elliot RB 17.4 10.9 9.1
RB Jordan Howard RB 8.3 1.8 0.1
WR Davante Adams WR 14.8 8.8 4.2
WR Robert Woods WR 11.6 5.6 1.0
TE Austin Hooper TE 6.5 2.3 1.6
FLEX JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 11.5 5.5 0.9
Emmanuel Sanders WR 10.6 4.6 0.0
Peyton Barber RB 8.2 1.7 0.0
Jared Goff QB 21.6 6.8 0.0
Kyle Rudolph TE 4.9 0.7 0.0
Derrick Henry RB 7.0 0.5 0.0
Rod Smith RB 0.7 0.0 0.0
Starting lineup total EPPG: 97.8
If we’re looking to trade somebody from our roster, we’d generally be looking to trade somebody with a high VORP and low VOBP. On our team, you can see that it’s the QBs and WRs.
Now, here’s the roster of a potential trade partner:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP
QB Kirk Cousins QB 18.7 3.9 1.2
RB Saquon Barkley RB 19.1 12.6 8.1
RB James Conner RB 18.0 11.5 7.0
WR Julian Edelman WR 10.2 4.2 3.2
WR Alshon Jeffery WR 7.1 1.1 0.1
TE George Kittle TE 9.2 5.1 0.3
FLEX David Johnson RB 12.7 6.2 1.7
Mark Ingram RB 11.0 4.5 0.0
Larry Fitzgerald WR 6.9 0.9 0.0
LeSean McCoy RB 7.3 0.8 0.0
Tom Brady QB 17.5 2.7 0.0
Dede Westbrook WR 7.0 1.0 0.0
Jared Cook TE 8.9 4.7 0.0
Starting lineup total EPPG: 95.0
I used a pretty easy example here, it doesn’t take any numbers to figure out that we’re light on RBs while our trade partner needs WRs. But situations like these aren’t uncommon, where each owner has a clear position of need, the hard part is figuring out an offer that’ll make both of you happy. I’m going to throw one more number at you, I promise this is the last one. We’ll call it TVOBP, for Trade Partner Value Over Bench Player. This is simply what the VOBP of a player would be if he was traded to the other team. If that player wouldn’t be put into the starting lineup, it has a TVOBP of 0. Formula:
(EPPG of Player A) – (EPPG of the player in the starting lineup that Player A would be replacing) = (TVOBP of Player A)
If a TVOBP is higher than the VOBP, that means that the player would be more valuable on the other owner’s team than the team he’s currently on, making him a good trade target.
Here’s our roster with the TVOBP calculated:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP TVOBP
QB Patrick Mahomes QB 27.7 12.9 6.1 9.0
RB Ezekiel Elliot RB 17.4 10.9 9.1 4.7
RB Jordan Howard RB 8.3 1.8 0.1 0.0
WR Davante Adams WR 14.8 8.8 4.2 7.7
WR Robert Woods WR 11.6 5.6 1.0 4.5
TE Austin Hooper TE 6.5 2.3 1.6 0.0
FLEX JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 11.5 5.5 0.9 4.4
Emmanuel Sanders WR 10.6 4.6 0.0 3.5
Peyton Barber RB 8.2 1.7 0.0 0.0
Jared Goff QB 21.6 6.8 0.0 2.9
Kyle Rudolph TE 4.9 0.7 0.0 0.0
Derrick Henry RB 7.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
Rod Smith RB 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Starting lineup total EPPG: 97.8
Trade partner:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP TVOBP
QB Kirk Cousins QB 18.7 3.9 1.2 0.0
RB Saquon Barkley RB 19.1 12.6 8.1 10.8
RB James Conner RB 18.0 11.5 7.0 9.7
WR Julian Edelman WR 10.2 4.2 3.2 0.0
WR Alshon Jeffery WR 7.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
TE George Kittle TE 9.2 5.1 0.3 2.7
FLEX David Johnson RB 12.7 6.2 1.7 4.4
Mark Ingram RB 11.0 4.5 0.0 2.7
Larry Fitzgerald WR 6.9 0.9 0.0 0.0
LeSean McCoy RB 7.3 0.8 0.0 0.0
Tom Brady QB 17.5 2.7 0.0 0.0
Dede Westbrook WR 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Jared Cook TE 8.9 4.7 0.0 2.4
Starting lineup total EPPG: 95.0
I’ve bolded TVOBP scores that are higher than that player’s VOBP, since those are the players that are going to generate net gains in EPPG. Subtracting a player VOBP from their TVOBP shows you the net EPPG that’d be gained between teams if the player was traded. George Kittle gets 9.2 EPPG, and if he were on our team he’d replace Austin Hooper, and generate 2.7 EPPG more than Hooper. Meanwhile our trade partner would sub in Jared Cook, who has only 0.3 less EPPG. In total, moving Kittle to our team would add 2.7 EPPG to our starting lineup, while only costing the other owner 0.3 EPPG.
With that information, let’s looks at some possible trades and how we can use what we’ve gone over to evaluate them. Keep in mind that when trading you and the person you’re trading with might have very different EPPG for some players. This can be a hindrance if your trade partner is overvaluing their own players or a benefit if they’re being undervalued. For the following scenarios, I’ll go off the assumption that both owners have roughly the same EPPG for both team’s players.
Trade 1:
We Send:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP TVOBP
Emmanuel Sanders WR 10.6 4.6 0.0 3.5
We receive:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP TVOBP
Mark Ingram RB 11.0 4.5 0.0 2.7
Effects of trade:
My VORP +/- Their VORP +/- My SL EPPG +/- Their SL EPPG +/-
-0.1 +0.1 +2.7 +3.5
  1. Is the total VORP I’m receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP I’m trading away? - YES
  2. Will this increase the total EPPG of my starting lineup? - YES
  3. Is the total VORP the other owner receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP they’re trading away? - YES
  4. Will this increase the total EPPG of the other owner’s starting lineup? - YES
This is a simple trade. Each team is giving away a bench player for a player that will immediately be put into their starting lineup. They have similar EPPG and VORP, so both teams benefit. It’s nice, but let’s look at a trade that’ll have a bigger impact on our starting lineup.
Trade 2:
We Send:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP TVOBP
Patrick Mahomes QB 27.7 12.9 6.1 9.0
Robert Woods WR 11.6 5.6 1.0 4.5
Austin Hooper TE 6.5 2.3 1.6 0.0
We receive:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP TVOBP
Kirk Cousins QB 18.7 3.9 1.2 0.0
Saquon Barkley RB 19.1 12.6 8.1 10.8
Jared Cook TE 8.9 4.8 0.0 2.4
Effects of trade:
My VORP +/- Their VORP +/- My SL EPPG +/- Their SL EPPG +/-
+0.7 -0.7 +6.8 +4.5
  1. Is the total VORP I’m receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP I’m trading away? - YES
  2. Will this increase the total EPPG of my starting lineup? - YES
  3. Is the total VORP the other owner receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP they’re trading away? - YES
  4. Will this increase the total EPPG of the other owner’s starting lineup? - YES
This trade has more moving pieces, and the EPPG of both owner’s starting lineup gets a significant boost. We’re giving up one of our studs in Mahomes but getting back one in Barkley and an upgrade at TE as a sweetener. This makes sense for both teams.
Now let’s say we were offered the following...
Trade 3:
We Send:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP TVOBP
Ezekiel Elliot RB 17.4 10.9 9.1 4.7
We receive:
Name Pos EPPG VORP VOBP TVOBP
David Johnson RB 12.7 6.2 1.7 4.4
Mark Ingram RB 11.0 4.5 0.0 2.7
Julian Edelman WR 10.2 4.2 3.2 0.0
Effects of trade:
My VORP +/- Their VORP +/- My SL EPPG +/- Their SL EPPG +/-
+4.0 -4.0 -2.0 +1.5
  1. Is the total VORP I’m receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP I’m trading away? - YES
  2. Will this increase the total EPPG of my starting lineup? - NO
  3. Is the total VORP the other owner receiving greater than or roughly equal to the total VORP they’re trading away? - NO
  4. Will this increase the total EPPG of the other owner’s starting lineup? - YES
This is where things get tricky because the package that we’re offered is pretty good from a value perspective, all three players we’d get in this trade are solid. But the EPPG of our starting lineup gets worse, Johnson and Ingram’s 22.7 EPPG would be a downgrade from the 25.7 EPPG we’re currently getting from Elliot and Howard. If we’re in a position to try to make a value trade, we could accept this as is, but the inclusion of Edelman doesn’t make a lot of sense here for both owners. They’re already thin at WR and we’re so deep at that position that Edelman doesn’t help us outside of being repackaged into another trade. If we gave them a counter offer of the same trade except with Kittle replacing Edelman, suddenly the numbers become:
My VORP +/- Their VORP +/- My SL EPPG +/- Their SL EPPG +/-
+4.9 -4.9 +0.7 +4.4
This trade makes a lot more sense.
Final Notes
We've talked a lot about about the EPPG of the starting lineup, but I realized I probably haven't talked enough about the importance of depth or potential breakout players. Don't discount the value of good players on your bench in case of injuries and bye weeks.
These methods of evaluation can get a little tricky when things like injuries and suspensions are brought into the mix. It can help to keep in mind that a player’s VOBP is how many EPPG you’ll be missing out on while they’re injured or suspended.
I hope there was some insight that could be gleaned from my drivel. As I mentioned earlier, this is more of a rough draft that I want to improve and repost at the beginning on next year to hopefully help owners at a more relevant time. So constructive criticism is appreciated.
EDIT: Some have suggested a TLDR but I jumped around the place so much with this post that I'm having trouble thinking of one. But here's an attempt...
TLDR: When trading, value players based off of the points they provide for your team compared to free agents and your bench players, not simply off of their PPG. Be aware of how many PPG you expect your starting lineup to get before and after making the trade.
submitted by CreamsicleMamba to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]


2018.10.28 03:39 MrObjective Shady collusion or Clever Way to Deal with Bye Weeks

I’ve been playing FFB for years and feel I have a solid grasp of what collusion is. So, I always thought that having temporary trades (like agreeing to swap a bench QB for a bench RB for a week to deal with bye weeks) just to reverse the trade a week later was a form of collusion. But then AJ Mass, an ESPN staff writer, wrote this article:
http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/veteranmoves181015/fantasy-football-how-approach-your-roster-your-only-qb-bye-ben-roethlisberger-aaron-rodgers
At the end of the article: “Finally, assuming your league doesn't get too veto-happy or have specific rules that outlaw this kind of thing, I've always thought it quite clever to have a "bye week partner" lined up. I'll trade you Carson Wentz (my QB2) and you send me Latavius Murray (your RB4) for next week so we can both cover Week 7 roster holes, with the understanding that we'll swap them back seven days from now.
It's a win-win for both of us, and as long as we're not actually squaring off against each other, absolutely something you should do. I don't personally consider this collusion -- in fact, in 16-team leagues, I think it should become common practice.”
Am I being too old school in feeling this is collusion? Do other leagues allow this as “common practice”? Seems strange for a major media outlet to promote such a practice.
submitted by MrObjective to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]


2018.10.15 09:34 kljanz J Howard and Diggs for Michel and Cook

What are your thoughts on this trade?
My team QB: Roethlisberger, Rivers RB: Barkley, Howard, Miller WR: Hopkins, Diggs, Boyd, Baldwin, Fuller TE: Njoku
Trade partner QB: Newton, Prescott RB: Mixon, Michel, Cook, K. Johnson, WR: Jones, Tate, Watkins, Fitzgerald TE: Rudolph
submitted by kljanz to Fantasy_Football [link] [comments]


2018.08.22 12:27 Sconnie92 Pedro Presser 1.03 - Post Draft Edition

The rush of the draft; nothing else like it! No wonder the Browns are always so eager to get to it each year (hey-ooo). As we countdown the days until the Week 1 it is officially Pedro time! The quest has begun, but for some the path begins on better footing than others.
Reminder that rankings and awards are averaged out by the voting of the commissioners and Pedro Bearer (or runner-up or third-place in the event the commissioners crush the league and win 1st and 2nd place on the year). This season's rankings and awards staff is therefore Jeremy, Ethan, and Nate. Let's get to it!

Awards

Sterling Stephen
Receiving the Sterling Stephen of course is both a huge honor and leg-up, as the winner goes into their next match with a +3 point head start. Our first winner is Phil "Got Lucky Added a Player"! While Phil struggled to find the internet the computer faithfully auto-picked his roster, but once he entered the draft and made his first real pick it was Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots, who has consistently been a top 3 kicker every year. It is not a shock that Phil's first real selection was a kicker, but it is shocking and award worthy that he take the best kicker in the game (for our rules) at the perfect time (not too early but still ahead of the run on kickers).
Joe Thomas Memorial Trophy
The JTMT represents giving a great effort in the face of total loss and for your courage the winner of this award receives a +1 point head start on their next week. The first JTMT winner is Nate "Never the Mooseman"! Nate represented Joe Thomas in spirit when he took Josh Gordon despite there being no clear proof that Gordon would be back with the team before the season started. That is a gutsy pick!
Mooseman of the Week
The yang to the Sterling Stephen's ying, the Mooseman of the Week highlights the poor performance of one team that is without excuse, and thus dishes out a -3 point penalty for the following week. The first dishonored recipient is Justin "Browns for 500". The voting was not even close: taking Evan Engram at #10 overall was too crazy not to earn the Moose. Engram is not a consensus top 3 at his position, and was picked over OBJ, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Rodgers, Julio Jones, Melvin Gordon, in addition to the top 3 TE of Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz. It's good that Justin got his man, but his man likely would have still been there in round 2.
Bullet Bill
Haven't we all been there before? Cruising in first place on Peace Beach, having a good time, heading into the final turn, when BAM! a last place jerkwad rockets past with a Bullet Bill. Sucks doesn't it? Well that's exactly what Erik "Waymansville Winners" did in his first Pedro draft. Never shows and trusts the autodraft, effectively killing the hope of high ranked players falling too far. To balance this injustice, he is docked 1 point headed into week 1.

Power Rankings

This week's power rankings coming out of the draft was pretty clear cut in the top half of the league, with unanimous rankings on 1-6. The bottom half is where the real intrigue lie, including a three-way tie at number 8.
  1. Ethan "Disciple of Hoyer" - The disciples are sitting pretty thanks in large part to three picks in the first 17. Getting Antonio Brown (#1 WR) at #8 followed by Gronk (#1 TE) at #17 set up a first place ranking, and snagging Baltimore DST with a week 1 match-up against the Cleveland-esque Buffalo Bills was the icing on the cake. The one concern is the QB position with Tyrod Taylor serving as an obvious streaming option, but with Dalvin Cook on the bench as a trade candidate, the QB is absolutely liquid.
  2. Phil "Got Lucky Added a Player" - God smiled on Phil as an angel scrambled the wifi single in the Stebbing household, because for once Phil has a good fantasy team. A REALLY good fantasy team. Sporting Le'Veon Bell is always a huge plus, as the man is an absolute workhorse year in and year out. Additionally, Phil has target monsters Davante Adams and Travis Kelce, and (as previously mentioned) the consistently best kicker in Pedro. DST is as close to a weak point as this team has, but time will tell if Denver is able to match some of the firepower in the AFC West.
  3. (Tied for 3rd) Jeremy "The Iron Hip" - Jeremy went all-in on upside this draft; Watson showed last year that he's capable of playing at an other-worldly level and Tyler Eifert (proud product of Fort Wayne, IN) is a redzone machine when he's healthy. Question is how far will Watson come down on his journey back to earth following his torn ACL, and will Eifert see the field for even half the games? Balancing out this risk is the presence of 2017 Pedro MVP Todd Gurley, #1 DST Jacksonville, and the staple of the up and coming Chargers passing attack, Keenan Allen. If Jeremy's gambles pay off, this team could be scary good. Equal chance it disappoints just as much if things don't fall the right way.
  4. (Tied for 3rd) Erik "Waymansville Winners" - He may have picked up the Bullet Bill of the week, but the 1pt deduction might be worth it, because the Winners are in prime position to do just that. Sitting atop the Cleveland division, Erik has 2016 MVP David Johnson, 2017 #1 QB Russell Wilson, and top #3 TE (Ertz) and DST (Vikings). If David Johnson returns to his MVP form after a year off with a broken wrist, then this team could go far. Kicker and bench depth are a bit of a concern going forward, and Erik should strongly consider making a play for a second WR to balance out Thomas' inconsistent weeks.
  5. James "it burns when I pee" - James might have gotten the steals of the draft when at #11 and #14 he was able to grab Alvin Kamara and OBJ. While neither have been the #1 of their position they each have the upside of getting there this year (especially with Kamara being without competition for the first 4 weeks). Stafford at QB is a trendy pick this year for good reason, which makes it curious why James took Andrew Luck in the 7th. Perhaps between the two he is setting up for some trade leverage to get a higher tier TE, as Hayden Hurst is unlikely to be an every week starter.
  6. Kim "Mrs Reverend Hodag" - The Mrs doesn't have the upside punch as some of the higher ranked teams, but her floor is pretty high with a roster full of consistent success. Highlighting her team is the greatest QB on the planet Aaron Rodgers and last year's rushing leader Kareem Hunt. Delaine Walker is looking safer and safer each day with the Titans, and after missing out on some top 5 WR Kim was able to snag both Thielen and Hill, which between the two should give her consistent production. Looking for a trade partner to get some more #1 upside at WR or TE might not be a bad move, but Kim is pretty conservative and trade-adverse, so maybe we'll see her stick to the waivers.
  7. Nate "Never the Mooseman" - The non-unanimous team, Nate received two votes for 7th and one for 8th due in large part to his lack of explosive players. Hopkins is about as consistent as you can get at WR, which makes Josh Gordon all the more interesting as a trade candidate. Gordon is appearing to be on the cusp of rejoining the Browns, and if he flashes his big time ability could be a tantalizing offer to teams look for WR improvement. The Rams should be one of the few match up-proof DST that can be started every week, but after that there are some concerns with this roster. Roethlisberger has a good match week 1 with Cleveland, but has never proven to be a good week-to-week play, and Fournette gets 100% of Jacksonville's carries on a run-first team, but he also gets banged up and misses games here and there.
  8. (Tied for 8th) Justin "Browns for 500" - Despite receiving one last place vote, Justin lands in a three way for 8th place. Players like Cam Newton and Julio Jones are capable of single handily winning a week, while players like Jerrick McKinnon and Will Fuller are largely unproven. Add to that the expected regression of first round pick Evan Engram (return of OBJ, arrival of Saquon Barkley expected to take away targets) and this team's upside is starting to look limited. Should McKinnon, Fuller, or Engram start hot it would be wise to trade them while the value is high and try to get back some higher ceiling players or future draft picks.
  9. (Tied for 8th) Megan "Duhna Duhna Megladon" - In the middle of the three way is the Megladon. Megan came away from the draft with the most exciting prospect on her team in Saquon Barkley who may end up the best RB in the league if he lives up to expectations. Should he dominate as expected, it makes her pick up of Christian McCaffrey a smart move for trade leverage to RB needy teams. Outside of RB, her team's ceiling seems low; Mike Evans will be without his starting QB for 3 weeks and Doyle now has to compete with Eric Ebron for the majority of the work as the Colt's TE. Dak could return to his top-12 QB form from 2016 and the Steelers DST has a favorable week 1 match-up, but don't be surprised to see the Megladon swimming in the waiver pool early this year.
  10. (Tied for 8th) Lesley "Browns Lives Matter" - The only team to rank differently by all members of the editorial board, Lesley received votes for 11th, 10th, and 7th. Why the discrepancy? It all depends on how much you believe in the old-timers I guess. Lesley's starting 4 on offense are Brady, Devonta Freeman, Larry Fitzgerald, and Jimmy Graham. Outside of Freeman, that group was considered old last year! With Brad and Fitz in what is expected to be their last year or two (and Graham likely not far behind) this team will need them to not experience any drop off in play. The safest of the 4 would be Larry, which makes it curious why Lesley used his bench spot on Diggs. Expect some trade targeting for QB or RB.
  11. Jake "Kashyyyk Fuzzballs" - The Fuzzballs are likely to move up from the bottom soon, as Jake has proven to be pretty saavy with his waiver pick ups. This team also has the pieces to do well with Zeke and AJ Green at RB and WR. Big concerns lie at QB and TE with both Wentz and Olsen coming off major injuries. The concern with Wentz is bigger, as he may not be good to go for the first few games, and may not play the same when he does return, all of which would make QB a pressing need. Olsen has a track-record of good play at TE, but he's coming off surgery, flirted with retirement this off season, and saw his team bring in DJ Moore to take away targets in the passing game. TY Hilton on the bench is a wildcard, as he is capable of winning a week all by himself (especially with Luck back). If Hilton finds consistency or starts hot then Jake could have a good play at trading away either him or AJ Green to several WR needy teams.
  12. Tom "All Or Nothing Artists" - Tom always brings some surprises, that's for sure! He used his first round pick (#12 overall) on Drew Brees, banking on his bounce-back season... at the age of 39/40... and didn't make his second pick until the mid-3rd round where he took Kai Forbath... who was cut this week by the Vikings. Ouch! Looming over RB McCoy is possible off the field issues that could lead to suspension, and even if not Shady McCoy is entering his age 30 season, which is often the drop off year for RB production. If all this wasn't bad enough, Tom's WR, Doug Baldwin, is iffy about being healthy for the start of the year, TE Eric Ebron is in a timeshare role with Jack Doyle and unlikely to see top-12 upside for his position, and the Dolphins DST maybe the worst in the league this year. Really Tom should be going all in on waivers to try find a stop-gap WR in case Baldwin isn't ready week 1 and looking to trade Jimmy G or McCoy the moment they have a hot hand (if ever).
submitted by Sconnie92 to MuseumOfPedro [link] [comments]


2018.07.12 14:01 TheFencingCoach Offseason Review Series: Day 7, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Division: NFC South
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in the NFC South)
Subreddit: Buccaneers, MikeGlennon

2017 Key Statistics

Category 2016 Ranking 2017 Ranking Δ
DVOA Offense 19th 11th +8
Total Offense 5,542 Yards 5,816 Yards +274
Total Passing Yards 3,926 Yards 4,366 Yards +440
Total Rushing Yards 1,616 Yards 1,450 Yards -166
DVOA Defense 13th 32nd -19
Total Defense Allowed 5,887 Yards 6,049 Yards -174
Total Passing Yards Allowed 4,012 Yards 4,169 Yards -157
Total Rushing Yards Allowed 1,875 Yards 1,880 Yards -5
Total Sacks 38.0 22.0 -16.0
TurnoveTakeaway Differential +2 -1 -3
Penalty Flags 102 104 +2
Player Arrests 1 1 0
Player Fines $1.6M $110K -$1.49M

Introduction: There’s a Storm Coming, Master Wayne

When I wrote for this series one year ago, it was full of bright and bushy tailed optimism. There were many reasons to excited: we were coming off our first winning season since 2010. Jameis Winston was showing promise as a franchise QB. Our defense finished the 2016 strong and were going in a positive direction under Mike Smith. We had finally invested in skill position players to surround Jameis with more talent.
Though brimming with optimism, there were a couple of red flags I recognized, and it turns out, they weren’t only red flags, but Achilles heels:
Jameis’s decision-making and reduction of turnovers
He would wind up turning the ball over 18 times in 13 games (11 interceptions + 7 lost fumbles). Decision-making wound up being detrimental to the team in more ways than one.
the interior offensive line protecting him [Jameis]
Our starting QB’s were sacked 40 times last season. Sweezy and Pamphile (both no longer with the team) provided sub-par protection throughout the season, and while Marpet grew as a Center, the team bounced him back to Guard where he’s a more natural fit.
a secondary that may not be poised to stop the powerhouse QB’s of the NFC South
The team allowed a league-worst 4,169 passing yards. Vernon Hargreaves III didn’t progress as much as the team hoped in year two, and while Grimes continued to play serviceably, our Safety play from Conte continued to be a plague. Injuries exposed our sheer lack of depth, and once again, we proved our inability to answer the age old question: “How do you stop a slant route?”
a huge question mark around Doug Martin
At one point in the season, he was suspended by the team (in addition to serving out the remainder of his PED suspension) for violating team rules. He wound up with 406 yards on the season (2.9 YPC). He’s now an Oakland Raider.
the circus of our competition for the starting Kicker job (aka Dr. Roberto’s Wild Ride).
The Aguayo experiment ended in massive failure. Nick Folk beat him out for the job, only to do his best Aguayo impersonation. We replaced him with Patrick Murray, and now we’re replacing Murray with Catanzaro—our 6th starting Kicker in the last two seasons.
So are the expectations for the upcoming 2018 season? There’s a storm coming, Master Wayne, and I believe we are about to witness an end of Schiano/end of Raheem Morris level meltdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a regime change from top to bottom, and whatever promise we had last year is going to go full Hindenburg. Let’s talk about the landscape entering July:
The Jameis Winston Suspension: I’ve already opined with my thoughts on Winston, so I’ll do my best to take my bias out of this and look at it from an objective standpoint. There’s little argument that Jameis would have provided us the best chance to win, flaws and all. Winston’s three game suspension to start the season comes against the Saints, the Super Bowl Champion Eagles (I need a shower every time I type that), and the Pittsburgh Steelers—all of whom were playoff teams last year. While Fitzpatrick played decently during Jameis’s injury absence last year, these teams are simply too good from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. Starting the season 0-3 during Jameis’s suspension is a real possibility. So what happens next? Does the team rally behind his return? Does the negative momentum and bad morale continue into Week 4? Does a pissed off Jameis return with a chip on his shoulder and play the best football of his career? Or does he try too hard to put the team on his shoulders and continue with his propensity to turn the ball over? The suspension is the make or break point on the season. We’ll see how the team responds (or doesn’t).
Mike Smith is Still our Defensive Coordinator: The Buccaneers made a significant investment in free agency and via the draft to upgrade our pitiful defensive line that generated a league-low 22.0 sacks last year. We used our 1st round pick on Vita Vea, traded a 3rd and 4th for Jason Pierre-Paul, and signed Mitch Unrein, Vinny Curry, and Beau Allen. But when you have a Defensive Coordinator who tries to play a game of Checkers with the Chess pieces at his disposal, acquisitions that look good on paper may not translate to success on the field.
Smith has been running a variation of the Cover 3/Cover 4—a scheme that is predicated on the strength of the pass rush up front. Though injuries were aplenty last season, our defense was painfully predictable. Four man rushes were the norm; in fact, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Buccaneers only sent blitz packages on 18% of first downs, 19% of third downs. Quarterbacks looked relaxed enough to sit back, sip on a pina colada, and read the newspaper.
The Bucs don’t have an easy schedule, and with matchups against division rivals Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees, as well as Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz/Big Dick Nick, Eli Manning, and a bevy of other solid quarterbacks, one can’t help but have a foreboding feeling going into this season about Mike Smith’s gameplans.
Mike Smith is the type of Fortnite player who gathers a bunch of materials at the beginning of a match, hides in a Godbush, and then decides to go charge at a fully stacked fort at the end of a game with a grey burst assault rifle.
Linearity on Offense: Good NFL offenses thrive on unpredictability and innovation. And then, there’s the Bucs. If I were to describe our offense last year, I would call it “predictable linearity.” There was almost an “If A, then B, if B, than C” logic to our playcalling. If it was a first down, it would almost always be a handoff up the middle. If Jameis lined up behind center, it was almost always a run play. If he lined up in shotgun, it was always a pass play. When Charles Sims took the field, it was going to be a pass. You know that Geico commercial where the evil villain reveals in painstaking detail his plans, ruining the element of surprise? That’s our offense. It sucks, and even with the addition of Ronald Jones II and Ryan Jensen, I have no confidence things will get better.
All of this said, I predict the Buccaneers will finish 5-11 this year, last in the NFC South. Let’s talk about the offseason (both Free Agency and the Draft), what to expect, and looking at our team top to bottom.

Free Agency and Trade Acquisitions – New Faces in the Red & Pewter

Player Deal Analysis
Vinny Curry (DE) 3 Years, $27M ($10.5M Guaranteed) This offseason, Jason Licht made a conscious attempt to overhaul our defensive line, and Curry was the first piece added to complete the (never-ending) puzzle. At 30 years old, Curry still has a few decent years left in him and should be an immediate starter at LE. It helps that he is a sufficient run defender as well, and should the team decide to move on from Willie Gholston, Curry will be able to step in and fulfill Gholston’s duties.
Ryan Jensen (Center) 4 years, $42M ($22M Guaranteed) This acquisition tied with the Jason “Captain Hook” Pierre-Paul trade as my favorite move of the offseason, though it wasn’t without its downsides. Perhaps the greatest benefit of signing Jensen is that it will allow us to move Ali Marpet back to Guard where he’s a more natural fit and was showing All-Pro level potential before the team inexplicably bounced him inside. The ramifications of this deal, however, is that the Indianapolis Colts were the Bucs’ greatest competition to sign Jensen. By winning the Jensen sweepstakes, it made the Colts selecting Quentin Nelson at #6 overall a foregone conclusion. The Colts wound up with a player I coveted and who will be a generational Guard (I said the same of Chance Warmack. You can trust me). Nevertheless, OL was one of our many weaknesses heading into the offseason, and while our LT and RG situations are still glaring problems, Jensen at least provides an immediate upgrade.
Jason Pierre-Paul Trade! Giants received Bucs 3rd and 4th Round Picks Thank you Jesus. The Bucs had one of the most anemic pass rushes in 2017, generating a measly 22.0 sacks. The JPP trade made sense for both sides. Bucs snagged a 29-year-old DE still in his prime (with a potential out on his deal in 2019), and the Giants free $2.5M in cap while picking up an extra pick for a guy who wasn’t a good scheme fit for their new 3-4. A graduate of University of South Florida (USF), JPP returns to Tampa and will hopefully, maybe, probably, I pray to Glennon become our first 10+ sack pass rusher since Simeon Rice (I literally say this every time we get a new DE so I’ll be right, eventually).
Chandler Catanzaro (K) 3 years, $9.75M ($3.75M Guaranteed) On the plus side, Chandler Catanzaro isn’t Roberto Aguayo or Nick Folk. On the downside, Jason Licht’s revolving door of Kicker strategy has come back to bite us in the ass. After the Folk debacle, the Bucs brought Patrick Murray who went 19/23 on FG’s last season (82.6%) and 21/22 on XP’s (95.5%). We let Murray become a Free Agent, replacing him with Catanzaro, who was 25/30 on FG’s (83.3%) and 100% on XP attempts. It’s a small upgrade over Murray, but was it really a necessary move? Will he be able to replicate his success in Tampa, or will our Kicker curse continues? Find out on this season’s Special Teams & Special Memes Twilight Zone.
Beau Allen (DT) 3 years, $15M ($7.25M Guaranteed) There’s not a lot to dislike about this move. Allen is 26 years old, an adequate starter, and he’s going to do his job better than Chris Baker. Allen and Vita Vea will provide value on 1st and 2nd down and will be a valuable rotational player on the line—all at a reasonable price
Mitch Unrein (DT) 3 years, $10.5M ($4M Guaranteed) Unrein may wind up being a surprise training camp cut, and this was a move I didn’t love, overall. Watching tape of Donovan Smith last year against the Bears, Smith not only neutralized Unrein throughout the game, but outright dominated him. And if Donovan Smith can shut you down, you need a come to Jesus moment. I don’t see a scenario where the Bucs keep McCoy, Vea, Allen, Tui’kolavatu, Ward, and Unrein, and if I were to guess, the last three games I named will be the odd men out.

2018 NFL Draft Review –

I came away from the last year’s draft with a bullish attitude, and I think you’re going to see some breakout players from that class (more on that below). My opinion is more bearish on our 2018 picks, and while we aggressively addressed some glaring needs on DL and DB, none of the picks wowed me like last year. I think this draft class will produce two quality starters in Vita Vea and Carlton Davis, and I’m on the fence about Ronald Jones II. More on that below:
Round/Pick Player Analysis
Round 1, #12 Overall Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau "Vita" Vea (DT – Washington) After Quentin Nelson went off the board at #6 (Damn you, Colts), the Buccaneers found a trade partner with the Buffalo Bills and moved down five spots to #12 where we selected Vita Vea. I felt lukewarm about the pick at the time, wondering why we passed on Derwin James. After watching a few hours of tape on Vea, that feeling remains the same. Vea addresses a glaring area of need. Dating back to when Gerald McCoy was drafted in 2010, the Bucs have desperately searched for and failed to find a run stuffing complement. In effect, McCoy has been the only source of any disruption on the DL. Vea will most likely benefit playing in a rotation on 1st and 2nd downs. It’s a small cause for concern that Vea played 62% of Washington’s defensive snaps last season, given that he was presumably a centerpiece of their unit. Vea comes across on tape as an immovable object which will benefit the Bucs in run defense; however despite developing a reputation as a pass rusher, my takeaway watching Vea’s tape is his first step comes out slower than you’d like. His pad level is a tad high, and he tends to rely on driving with his arms more than his legs, but once he engages a blocker, good luck outmuscling him. I think the kind of value Vea adds won’t necessarily show up on the stat sheet. Look at this play, for instance. If you left him one on one with a blocker in college, he was going to stuff your run like a water buffalo. I think Vea projects to be an adequate starter in the pros who will be best utilized on obvious rushing downs. His pass rush and technique need work, but with proper coaching, he might become the disruptive phenom many believe he can be.
Round 2, #38 Overall Ronald Jones II (RB – USC) Ronald Jones is a blistering speed demon with home run potential. Once he gets into open field, good luck stopping that train. I happen to love his balance as well. Once he gets hit with initial contact, his low pad level and power often made him hard to bring down. The recurring problem I saw with Jones’ tape, however, was in his inability to let his blocks develop, and the lack of patience resulted in him running into the pile before his holes opened up. It doesn’t help that the Buccaneers OL hasn’t exactly been an opportunity creator for our run game, and that makes me worry about Jones’ transition to the NFL. Pass blocking is a huge area of work for Jones, and he’ll have to refine better technique than this play and this play, for instance. RB was a huge area of need for us with the decline of the Caged Muscular Rodent. Jones may never be Chris Johnson-type who he’s sometimes compared to, but projects to a decent pro back.
Round 2, #53 Overall M.J. Stewart (CB – UNC) There’s surprisingly little tape of Stewart out there on YouTube, so my analysis is pretty ill-informed. In four years, M.J. Stewart played all over UNC’s defense, flipping between CB and Safety and coming up as the 8th man in the box. Despite the versatility, Jason Licht has stated Stewart will be used “strictly” as a CB, and we need all the help we can get there. There’s two things that concern me in the limited amount I’ve seen from Stewart: 1. His lack of turnovers. In his final two years of school, he had 0 INT’s, though he did have 12 pass breakups in 2017. 2. Hip fluidity, or lack thereof. When he turns upfield, his break comes off slower than you’d like, and it allowed his receivers to separate Example 1 vs. Stanford.
Round 2, #63 Overall Carlton “It’s Not Unusual to be Loved by Anyone” Davis (CB – Auburn) I dug the pick, and while Davis may never project to more than an adequate starter in the pros, adequate is good enough. Davis is a big-bodied CB who played against top competition while at Auburn. Watching Davis’s tape, I came away with the following observations: He can get a little bit too handsy and I worry about flag potential, particularly early on in his career (Example vs. Georgia). He’s insanely strong and does a good job in press coverage of forcing his receiver outside. He’s a good tackler and does a well shedding blocks on run plays. Watching his game against Clemson, he seemed to get burned on a number of slant routes. So how’d he do against a fellow top NFL prospect in Calvin Ridley vs. Alabama? Pretty damn well. He held Ridley to 3 catches for 38 yards and had him blanketed the whole game. I liked this pick, more than the Stewart selection.
Round 3, #94 Overall Alex Cappa (G – Humboldt State) Cappa played LT while at Division II Humboldt State, but will likely start the season at RG pending some unforeseen disaster. It’s difficult to evaluate tape of small school prospects, because the local TV stations will send out potato quality cameras, and secondly, watching them play against guys well below their level is like watching Mike Tyson box a toddler. So obviously, Cappa was a man among boys, and from the limited potato tape I watched, he’s quick off the snap, uses his hands well, and has that mean streak you want from an OL. I really have no opinion on this pick. It’s a gamble, as any small school prospect is, but it paid off with Ali Marpet and hope it will with Cappa too.
Round 4, #117 Overall Jordan Whitehead (S – Pitt) He’s the cousin of Buccaneer Legend Darrelle Revis, so clearly, he’ll have the same level of success in the pros. It’s a risky pick given some of Whitehead’s off the field concerns that led to a three-game suspension, but investing a 4th rounder was the point in the draft where the risk and reward ratio were even. In man coverage, Whitehead looks like a ballhawk, and I was impressed with his closing speed. Play recognition certainly needs some work. Look at this play, for instance. It’s a play action fake which you see him start to shadow his receiver but then realize just a moment too late the RB is in the secondary. Nevertheless, after his LB’s failed to stop the run, look how insanely fast he is to run sideline to sideline to tackle the RB. Whitehead could also sometimes whiff tackles. Deficiencies aside, it wouldn’t shock me if this pick ends up being a steal.
Round 5, #144 Overall Justin Watson (WR – UPenn) We now have three Ivy League players on our roster entering training camp! I was a big fan of this pick, and while Watson may never see the light of day on the field contending for snaps with Evans, Jackson, and Godwin, he adds solid depth to our WR corps which has become a strength for our rather thin roster. In the limited amount of Watson I saw, I liked his route running and footwork. He won’t have an immediate impact but has the chance to get looks in the event of injury.
Round 6, #202 Overall Jack Cichy (LB – Wisconsin) If Jason Licht has excelled in one area (and it’s probably the only area) of defensive scouting, he’s succeeded in finding talent at LB. Between Kwon Alexander and Kendell Beckwith, Licht has built one of the strongest 4-3 LB corps in the league. Cichy will have an uphill battle to make the final roster and will have to beat out Devante Bond. Based on watching Cichy’s tape against Iowa, his instincts and play recognition looked solid. I just really don’t like the name Cichy. Just look at it. Cichy. Screw his name. I hope he legally changes it to Ochocinco.

Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Offense

QB- Jameis Winston (After Suspension): Last season, I was hoping to see a downward trend in turnovers. While his accuracy has crept up year-by-year, his turnovers are still downright stupid at times. Though Winston threw 11 INT’s last season, Football Outsiders speculated that Jameis had an additional 8 passes that should have been picks. These follies are not entirely his fault. Our OL was a complete mess last year, and despite the fact that we surrounded Jameis with more weapons, our offensive playcalling didn’t necessarily cater to Jameis’s strengths, instead forcing him to chuck a number of deep balls and higher risk throws that weren’t in his skillset. The Bucs would benefit from making greater use of two TE sets with Brate and Howard to capitalize on the shorter and medium routes. Bucs fans may not want to acknowledge this, but Jameis is playing for Koetter, Licht, and possibly his own job in the final 13 games of the season. The deeper a hole the Bucs get into this year, the more risky moves we’ll see from Jameis. It’s going to be an interesting ride. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 3,113 yards, 64.1% completion percentage, 20 TD’s, 16 INT’s
WR1 – Mike Evans: Evans has turned out to be a great pick. In each of his four years in the league thus far, he’s eclipsed the 1,000+ yard mark. He earned himself a well-deserved monster extension this offseason that will keep him with the Bucs for an additional five years (he won’t even be 30 by the time the deal ends). Despite the favorable stats last year, 2017 was quite possibly Evans’ weakest season to date. He had a well-documented sideline blowup against the Saints that led to a warranted suspension. And that’s my biggest concern with Evans, going forward. He’s showing a tendency to let the league’s top DB’s get into his head, and the angrier he gets, the sloppier his game is. Nevertheless, he’s the most important piece on the Bucs offense, and it’s not even close. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 84 receptions, 1,182 yards, 6 TD’s
WR2 – Desean Jackson: Desean Jackson played his first year in Tampa better than his 668 yards would indicate. I counted at least 5 or 6 deep balls where he had generated clear and significant separation from his defender, only to be overshot by Jameis. In all likelihood, this is Jackson’s final year in Tampa Bay. The Bucs will be able to cut him after this year with no ramifications to the cap. One player to look out for is Chris Godwin, who finished the 2017 season strongly and could be a legitimate threat to Jackson as our WR2. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 56 receptions, 703 yards, 3 TD’s
RB – Ronald Jones II: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 721 Rushing yards (3.8 YPC), 5 TD’s
TE – Cameron Brate (He Went to Harvard): Like Evans, Cameron Brate secured a monster extension this offseason. It’s been a good success story for him as a former UDFA who’s now among the league’s top paid TE’s. It’s a bit of a travesty that Brate and Howard weren’t on the field more together because of their potential for mismatch nightmares. Brate was on the field for 178 more pass plays than Howard, and while Howard obviously had a rookie adjustment into the pros, Koetter perhaps used him too conservatively. More Brate + More Howard = Recipe for Jameis Success, which is why I think we’ll continue using them separately. It’s a Bucs life. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 56 receptions, 627 yards, 5 TD’s and Probably Wrong Projected Stats for Oterius Jabari Howard: 51 receptions, 587 yards 5 TD’s
LT – Donovan Smith: At this point, I’m firmly convinced that Donovan Smith is one of the league’s worst LT’s and has been a roadblock to Jameis’s success. Last year I wrote of Smith: “Against middling pass rushers, Smith has shown the ability to compete, but match him up against the league’s premier rushers, and he looks like a Kenyatta Walker throwback.” Not much has changed, and there’s nothing worse than watching him in blitz protection. He tends to go into a panic and allow blockers to go untouched to wallop Jameis. His play makes baby Jesus Glennon cry.
LG – Ali Marpet: I’m glad the Bucs came to their senses and put Marpet back at Guard, where he spent two years progressing very well before they inexplicably moved him to Center. Incidentally, Marpet did an AMA on Buccaneers this offseason that was downright awesome. He’s an absolute unit. Keep an eye on him.
C – Ryan Jensen: See above analysis
RG – Alex Cappa: See above analysis
RT – Demar Dotson: Dotson remains far and away our best OL and is one of the league’s underrated RT’s. At 32, he’s beginning to get into that “father time is undefeated” territory, and when the time comes that we part ways, our OL will be reduced to a pile of sad mush.

Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Defense

RE – Jason Pierre-Paul: See above analysis Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 11.5 Sacks
LE – Vinny Curry: See above analysis Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 5.0 Sacks*
DRT - Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau "Vita" Vea: See above analysis Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 2.5 Sacks:*
DLT – Gerald McCoy: You know how the Cleveland Browns took a generational LT in Joe Thomas and failed to ever give him the winning team he deserved? That’s Gerald McCoy for us. It has been nothing short of infuriating to see a revolving door of coaches and incompetent defensive linemen around him while he continues to produce with consistency. McCoy just turned 30 this year, and at this point, he’s probably a longshot to make the Hall of Fame down the road, but he’s a lock for our Ring of Honor and will always be a fan favorite. I hope he gets the ring he deserves before his career is done—whether it’s with us or elsewhere. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 6.5 Sacks.
WILL – Lavonte David: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the most criminally underrated Linebacker in the game of football: Lavonte David. From my perspective, Lavonte took a huge step forward last year, his 6th season in the league. His instincts were spot on, and he seemed to always be penetrating the backfield before runs could develop, and he remained fluid in pass defense. Next to McCoy, he’s our most important player on defense, but you sons of bitches continue to ignore him because he’s a 4-3 LB who doesn’t get sacks. It’s your fault. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 3 INTs, 4.5 Sacks
ILB – Kwon Alexander: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you one of the most overrated Linebackers in the game of football: Kwon Alexander. Despite missing four games with a hamstring injury, Kwon Alexander was selected to his first Pro Bowl last year. Kwon is what I would still call a work in progress. Physically, he’s one of the most gifted LB’s in the game: he’s fast, his acceleration to the ball is quicker than most, and he can deliver some of the most punishing hits. He’s got a lot of work to do on the instincts/play recognition front, and it represents his greatest weakness. Kwon’s getting better every year and still has sky-high potential. Since he’s in a contract-year, I’m expecting a huge one for him. Probably Wrong Projected Stats, 4 INT’s, 3.5 Sacks
SAM – Kendell Beckwith: Beckwith has had two rough offseasons in a row. He was drafted in the 3rd round last year and started training camp on the PUP list while he recovered from a torn ACL sustained in college. This offseason, he was involved in a car accident and fractured his ankle. There’s no public timeline on his recovery, though the expectation is he’ll miss most of the offseason. I was impressed by his rookie season and thought he did a good job stepping into a new position (he played ILB in college) and adding value from the get-go. Our LB corps is our greatest strength on defense right now, and Beckwith rounds out the unit nicely. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 2.0 Sacks, 1 INT
RCB – Brent Grimes: Brent Grimes is straight up old at this point. In a week, he’ll be 35 years old, and while he continues to play decently, at a certain point “decent” is going to plummet to geriatric patient status. With our additions at CB in MJ Stewart and Carlton Davis, Grimes may wind up losing some snaps this season. It’s likely his last in Tampa Bay, and possibly the NFL. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 1 INT
LCB – Carlton Davis: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 2 INT’s
Nickel – Vernon Hargreaves III: After two seasons in the NFL, things are not trending well for Hargreaves, a former top 15 pick. Is all hope lost? Not at all. He had a four or five game stretch last season where we played him in the slot, and the improvement was noticeable, but that was a small sample size. Hargreaves has struggled to get the defense takeaways as well, with only one turnover in two years in the league. With the receiving threats in the NFC South, Hargreaves will have to have a huge year three to justify picking up his 5th year option. I’m not going to get my hopes up on this one. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 0 INT
FS – Justin Evans: Of all the young players on the team, none excite me more than Justin Evans. He had a surprisingly good rookie season where he played with confidence, intercepted the Super Bowl loser Tom Brady, delivered big hits, and seemed to be all over the field. Evans must improve on his missed tackles. It was a problem going back to his time at Texas A&M, and it crept into his rookie season. Regardless, I think he’s going to be a really good Safety in this league. He’s our defensive player with the most upside right now, in my opinion. Keep an eye on him this year. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 4 INT’s
SS – Chris Conte: [Sigh]. Chris Conte is one of the streakiest players on our team. Some weeks, he’ll get absolutely torched in the secondary, the next week he’ll make a clutch game-saving takeaway. He’s your definition of average, but average luckily comes at a bargain price. There’s not really a better alternative for us right now, and after the TJ Ward disaster, Conte will have to suffice. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 2 INT’s

Training Camp Battles to Watch

Desean Jackson vs. Chris Godwin for the “Mike Evans’ Second Fiddle” Title Belt: As aforementioned, Jackson’s struggles on the stats sheet last year were caused more from Jameis’s inaccuracy on the deep ball than an actual decline in Jackson’s play. Godwin finished his rookie season with a spectacular TD catch to beat the Saints, and even prior to that point, he was beginning to develop a rapport with Jameis. I suspect Jackson will beat out Godwin as the starting WR2, but Godwin will transition into the starter by the end of the season. That will likely end in us cutting Jackson following the 2018 season, which would save the Bucs $10M in 2019.
Money in the Bank Match: Harvard Ryan versus not Harvard Ryan: The prevailing assumption is that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the de facto starter during Jameis’s suspension. Not so fast. Despite landing on IR in the 2017 season, the Bucs front office was high enough on “Not Harvard Ryan” (Griffin) that they were willing to extend him one year. There were whispers that Not Harvard Ryan was actually ahead of Fitzpatrick in the battle for backup QB before his injury. I think Harvard Ryan will beat out Not Harvard Ryan this time, but don’t be surprised if the Bucs keep Harvard Ryan on a short leash.
Hell in a Cell Match: Brent Grimes vs. MJ Stewart vs. Vernon Hargreaves III vs. Carlton Davis for the “Julio Jones’ Supper” Title: We got a slobberknocker here, J.R.. What happens when you put Grandpa Grimes against a bunch of youthful DB’s gunning for his job? Well, you get some angry tweets from Miko Grimes (fun fact: Buccaneers actually has a rule dedicated to Miko-related threads. It just reads: “Nope.”) The four guys I named here will all make the roster, but it’s likely to put Javien Elliott, Ryan Smith, and Jude Achoo-Baromoomoo on the roster bubble.

Schedule Predictions

Week Opponent Prediction Analysis
Week 1 @Saints 37-17 Saints (0-1) Saints roster is as complete as it’s been since their Super Bowl win. I expect Brees to come out and have a typical big game at home, while our passing game will struggle against an improving Saints secondary.
Week 2 Eagles 30-20 Eagles (0-2) I don’t see the Eagles getting a terrible Super Bowl hangover. At least, not at this point in the season. Too many good pieces on their team. I predict Nelson Agholor returns home to Tampa and has a monster game.
Week 3 Steelers 31-24 Steelers (0-3) I’m expecting a shootout in this one that winds up a one-score game. Expect a 150+ yard game from Antonio Brown, because lord knows the only thing that’s going to stop him will be a giant meteor. There’s a joke to be had somewhere about Jameis playing Roethlisberger, but I can’t make that joke because Jameis will still be suspended at this point.
Week 4 @Bears 27-17 Bucs (1-3) My own personal vendetta against Bitch Trubitchsky aside, I’m not as bought into the early hype train around him. In Jameis’s first game back from suspension, he’ll return to play a focused game and shred the Bears defense to put our first win on the board.
Week 5 Bye 5-0 Tampa Police (1-3) HONK HONK!
Week 6 @Falcons 41-23 Falcons (1-4) In our first game against the Falcons (who blew a 25-point lead in the Super Bowl), Julio Jones will do his usual dirty work on our secondary and put up another monster game. Fun fact: in 12 games against the Bucs, he’s averaged 7 catches for 118 yards per game. Until I see us stifle him once, I enter these matchups with the assumption bad things will happen.
Week 7 Browns 23-20 (OT) Browns (1-5) Bucs have typically fared poorly against rookie QB’s in the past, and this may be the game that begins “the unraveling” in Tampa Bay. Expect an ugly game with a soul breaking outcome.
Week 8 @Bengals 21-16 Bengals (1-6) I like the investments the Bengals have made in DB in the last couple of years, and Billy Price was a good pickup in Round 1. A lot of people are sleeping on the Bengals defense, but between their disruptive front 7, and an up and comer in William Jackson, I’m expecting this game to be one of those multi turnover head scratching games from Jameis.
Week 9 @Panthers 34-24 Bucs (2-6) Panthers still have a solid defense, but their OL and receivers situation makes me think the Bucs stand a chance to wreak some havoc up front and make this a tough game for Cam. Series is typically split between the two teams.
Week 10 Redskins 21-17 Bucs (3-6) I don’t really know what to think of the Cousins-less Redskins, but on paper this doesn’t look like a great roster. My best man and I have a tradition of attending the Redskins-Bucs game no matter the location and have lovingly referred to this game as “The Pooper Bowl.” It’s going to be one of the season’s uglier games. I think the Bucs will squeak out a win because Mike Evans has had a propensity to go HAM against the Skins.
Week 11 @Giants 41-30 Giants (3-7) The Saquon Barkley hype is real, and OBJ is still a monster; not to mention, the Giants have a nasty defensive line. Expecting a shootout at the Meadowlands. I could see this going either way though. I don’t really trust Pat Shurmur as a head coach because he looks like Jim Zorn and a rabid Koala Bear had a baby.
Week 12 49ers 34-31 49ers (3-8) I get that they’re named after the gold rush, but the name “49ers” is just stupid. It bothers me. Like the name Cichy. It’s gross. Anyhow, I like the identity Bucs God John Lynch is building with the 49ers, and while some of the free agent signings may have been above market value, they’re quickly building well on both the offensive and defensive fronts. I think this will be a shootout with the 49ers taking the lead in the 4th because that’s how we roll.
Week 13 Panthers 20-17 Bucs (4-8) I like the chances of the Bucs to split the series here. I just want to say, as a Gators fan, I hate Cam Newton. I. Hate. Him. So. Much.
Week 14 Saints 21-13 Saints (4-9) Expecting another defensive stifling game from the Saints defense. Bucs will respond with a few picks of our own, but Saints will hold the win in the end.
Week 15 @Ravens 24-21 Ravens (4-10) I expect Lamar Jackson to be starting by this point. Hot take: I like him more than Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield in the long run, but Rosen’s my babe. Anyhow, I predict a monster game from Suggs and a lot of bad decisions from Jameis in this one.
Week 16 @Cowboys 27-21 Cowboys (4-11) They’re going to hand off the ball to Zeke over and over again. I have no idea how the Cowboys are going to fare with their lack of receivers, but it doesn’t bode well for them. The Cowboys now have James Van Der Beek or whatever his name is on their roster. He sounds Dutch.
Week 17 Falcons 28-3 Bucs (5-11) Falcons sit their starters in a meaningless Week 17 game where the Bucs rally for one final win. It won’t be enough. One day later, the Bucs go full red wedding on their coaching staff and management. I die inside.

Non-Buccaneer Predictions for the Season

  1. Last year, I predicted we’d see a breakout year from Goff. This year, my guy is Patrick Mahomes, who I think will be one of the league’s most exciting QB’s for a long time. I’m all aboard the Mahomes canoe. If it tips, than you will too! Do you love Mahomes like I do? All aboard the Mahomes canoe!
  2. MVP will go to Aaron Rodgers. DPOY will go to Joey Bosa (dark horse: Myles Garrett). OPOY will go to Drew Brees. OROY will go to…HOT TAKE! Nick Chubb. DROY will go to Roquan Smith. COTY will go to Frank Reich.
  3. The NFC Championship game will be played between the St. Louis Rams and the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons will win. The AFC Championship game will be played between the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots will win. The Super Bowl will feature an LI rematch, and Brady will win his final ring.
  4. Ben Roethlisberger will retire after this year.
  5. I love Jon Gruden. I love that man very much. But I think his return to the sidelines is one of the worst things that could have happened for the Raiders. I think the Raiders are an 8-win ceiling team this year with him coaching.
  6. The teams I think that have the highest potential to land a top 5 pick, in no particular order: Bucs, Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Redskins. I guess the Browns too.
  7. Coaches most likely to lose a job during or after this season: Koetter, Bowles, Jay Gruden, Hue Jackson, Marvin Lewis (it’s going to fucking happen one day), Vance Joseph, and dark horses: McCarthy, Harbaugh

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2018.06.15 19:47 Astro63 Defending The Draft: Pittsburgh Steelers

Defending the Draft: Pittsburgh Steelers
Preface:
Entering the draft, the Pittsburgh Steeler’s biggest needs were a Safety and an Inside Linebacker. Just about every Steelers fan would’ve agreed with this. ILB Ryan Shazier suffered an injury that will keep him out for 2018 and likely beyond, and our run defense suffered without him. Our safety play has been poor over the course of the past few years, and Mike Mitchell was ultimately released at the start of the offseason. Other commonly cited needs were a rotational EDGE, a boundary WR, OL depth, and possibly a new RB. Given how our season ended with a game where our offense put up 42 points but we lost, it was safe to say that we were expecting a defense-heavy draft. What we got was a draft where 4/7 picks were on the offensive side of the ball, and no true ILB was drafted. This draft has been both incredibly shocking and divisive among Steelers fans, but even though it didn’t go the way many expected, I see a lot of potential for early contributors and a clear picture for our defensive game-plan going forward.
In Free Agency, where the Steelers are traditionally quiet, the Steelers signed former Packers safety Morgan Burnett and former Colts linebacker Jon Bostic. Morgan Burnett is a consistent player who can play both SS and FS roles, a quality tackler, and was a leader for the Packers defense. Given our breakdowns in the secondary, it’s no surprise that the Steelers opted to bring in someone who can hopefully solidify the unit. Jon Bostic, while more of a role-player previously, brings quality run defense to a defense that was lacking there. Burnett was an expected starter from the moment he signed, but it also appears that the Steelers feel somewhat comfortable with Jon Bostic as our starting ILB.
Round 1, Pick 28: Terrell Edmunds, SAF, Virginia Tech
With their opening selection, the Steelers opted to draft Virginia Tech safety Terrell Edmunds, brother of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. This pick was a huge shock to many, including Steelers fans, as very few, if any, had Edmunds as a potential R1 selection, making this one of the biggest surprises in the first round rivaled only by Rashaad Penny to Seattle one pick prior. The Steelers chose him instead of more popularly graded safeties like Justin Reid and Jessie Bates III, and on the surface that was a very confusing decision. However, Edmunds’ skillset is something the Steelers were enamored with, and it’s somewhat easy to see why. For one, Edmunds is one of the very best athletes in this entire class. Per SPARQ, an athletic testing metric that is weight-adjusted, Edmunds was the 2nd highest rated safety, behind Redskins draftee Troy Apke, with a +1.9 Z-Score. His MockDraftable.com spiderweb-chart has him in the high-80s and 90s percentiles in every athletic test as well as size and wingspan. Edmunds is not just some workout warrior either; his athleticism is very notable on film. Edmunds brings speed to a defense, both with range and closing in on tackles, and he’s a very capable man-coverage defender given his athleticism. Edmunds was tasked with picking up both WRs and TEs at Virginia Tech, and he does an excellent job more often than not to stick to his man. Edmunds is also a very aggressive tackler, and not in the ‘throw your body around recklessly’ type of way. He’s a good wrap-up tackler, which is something I think Virginia Tech teaches very well for all their defenders. Where Edmunds falters is in zone coverage and in deep coverage responsibilities, where he can be slow to react to a breaking route or lose his man vertically. He also struggles at times to take the best possible angle when approaching the ball-carrier. Lastly, Edmunds by all accounts was one of the vocal leaders on the VT defense, something the Steelers placed a premium on this offseason.
Regarding where Edmunds fits on the Steelers defense, a lot that was revealed in GM Kevin Colbert and HC Mike Tomlin’s pre-draft press conference. In said conference, both Tomlin and Colbert touched heavily upon ‘specialization’ of skillsets in the college ranks. Comments were made such as “I think there’s more specialization within the positions. … I really just think it really struck us this year in draft prep, the level of specialization in today’s college game, and it’s exciting from our prospective” and “It’s just refreshing to see a nickel corner come to you in the draft more pro-ready, more trained, more specialized in terms of the things he needs to do. In the same way, it’s more exciting to see the situational pass rusher come to you with more defined skillsets or the interior slot receiver. I just think that all of those guys globally come to you with more specialized talents, and it’s good because I think that is our game”, all of which hinting at a new focus on specialization and hybridization for our defense. Terrell Edmunds is a player that really fits that bill. His primary position, at least to start, will be a traditional Strong Safety/3rd Safety where he will be tasked with man coverage on underneath routes and also picking up Tight Ends; something we’ve struggled with over the past few seasons. He has the plus athleticism to pick up a variety of opposing weapons, making him an excellent piece to have in the modern NFL. Furthermore, I expect Edmunds to play a lot of Box-Safety/$-backer responsibilities both on passing downs and some running downs. Playing near the box will allow him to effectively cover the middle of the field, as well as allow him to use his athleticism and aggressiveness in the front-7 where we need it. If Edmunds continues to develop his coverage instincts and skills, he has the range and ball-skills to play some high safety looks, but that’s likely well down the line and not an immediate contribution. The Steelers run one of the highest percentage of sub-package looks with their 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 defenses, and a pick like this one speaks to an even higher usage rate of that. Edmunds will play all over, and will ultimately act as a chess piece for our defense.
Other quick notes on this pick, the Edmunds pick continues a trend dating back to 2010 where our first-round draft pick has received a pro day visit by Kevin Colbert and/or Mike Tomlin. Colbert, Tomlin, and DC Keith Butler were all present at Virginia Tech for the pro day. Most of us assumed this was for Tremaine but it is now clear that they were interested in both brothers. Also of note, it was reported that the Steelers made efforts to trade up for Alabama LB Rashaan Evans but couldn’t find a trading partner. While many would’ve been happy with a traditional ILB, I’m personally glad this didn’t come to fruition because I am not a fan on Rashaan Evans.
Draft Day Trade: WR Martavis Bryant to the Oakland raiders for Pick 3.79
The Steelers made a surprising trade just prior to their first-round selection, dealing WR Martavis Bryant to the Oakland Raiders. While people inside the organization commented on not being interested in trading Bryant leading up to the draft, when Oakland came calling with a 3rd round pick it was an offer they could not refuse. Martavis is a freakish combination of 6’4 size and 4.4 speed, but he never quite gelled with the Steelers offense. Martavis has been suspended multiple times for Marijuana usage, and is on the last year of his contract, so landing a 3rd round pick was a very pleasant surprise. I wish nothing but the best for Martavis in Oakland and I think he adds a nice dynamic to their offense, but I was happy with picking up another Day 2 pick which we ultimately used for future investment.
Round 2, Pick 60: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
While our first-round pick was quite the surprise, our second-round pick of Oklahoma State WR James Washington was as unsurprising as it could get. Trading Martavis Bryant made it more pressing and clearer that we were planning to draft a WR early, and a player the Steelers liked fell right into their laps. The Steelers sent the house to Oklahoma State to get a look at Washington, and they also saw him live at Heinz Field tearing up the Pitt Panthers. Suffice to say, they were impressed. I am a big fan of James Washington and I think he fits in incredibly smoothly in our offense. As far as his performance and skillset goes, James Washington was an impressive deep threat in college, racking up 1550 yards and 13 TDs on an absurd 20.9 YPC his senior year. Washington won the Biletnikoff Award for the nation’s top WR, and for good reason. Washington, despite a somewhat strange build for a WR, has some of the best ball-tracking in this class, plays very physical at the top of his routes, and has great build-up speed which he uses to get behind DBs. He’s not exactly the best athlete at the WR position, but his in-game speed is quite clear and he plays with a non-stop motor. Some will question the system he played in and the fact that he played against Big 12 secondaries, but in Pittsburgh he won’t be tasked with being the number 1 option but instead as a complimentary piece. The Steelers already have the best WR in the game with Antonio Brown, and a promising young talent in JuJu Smith-Schuster, but Washington adds a needed element of a deep-ball receiver for Big Ben. Teams already need to focus on AB and JuJu, and adding Washington forces defenses to keep honest or risk being beat over the top. If Ben and Washington build chemistry early, Washington will be a very early contributor and rack up many key plays for our offense. Washington will likely work middle of the field to deep, which complements our current WRs nicely. Also of note, James Washington is regarded as one of the quietest and hardest-working players on Oklahoma State’s team, a complete turnaround from the drama Martavis brought. That will be a very welcome change.
Round 3, Pick 76: Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
Trade: Steelers trade 3.79 & 7.220 to Seattle for 3.76
Double dipping on Oklahoma State Cowboys, the Steelers selected Quarterback Mason Rudolph after a slight trade up to jump divisional rival Cincinnati. Rudolph himself is a bit of a controversial player, but I think the value on this pick is excellent. Many expected him to be drafted round 2, or possibly even sneak into the back of round 1. Kevin Colbert himself has said that he views Rudolph in the same light as other top QB prospects, so him falling to the third frame must’ve been too good to pass up for the Steelers. I was strongly against the idea of a QB early on (round 1 or 2), but to me getting Rudolph in the 3rd is a huge steal, as I see franchise QB upside. Rudolph was a three-year starter at OKST, and he knows how to command an offense. He is confident, he makes good decisions, and he has some mobility to escape the pocket with. His deep ball accuracy is mightily impressive, as he created great chemistry with hitting James Washington and Marcell Ateman in stride. He does a great job to limit and avoid turnovers without being gun-shy, placing the ball out of harm’s way far more of than not. He’s also not afraid to hit tight windows. However, Rudolph definitely has his weaknesses which is the reason he fell so far. The system he played in has been called into question and doesn’t require him to make many reads, and his arm strength isn’t up to par with what you’d expect from his size. It’s not crippling, and he’s more than capable of making all the throws, but it’s definitely not ideal. Above all though, Rudolph has been drafted into a very ideal situation for his growth and development. Pittsburgh offers him a stacked receiving corps which now features his favorite weapon in college, as well as a quality OL and consistent running game, especially if Bell re-signs. He’ll have time to develop in a pro-style offense and learn behind Big Ben (certain commentary notwithstanding). His confidence and poise should take him a long way in a situation like this. Will Rudolph be the true heir to Big Ben in Pittsburgh? I’m not sure. However, I think there’s a fair chance it happens, and it didn’t cost us much at all. It will be interesting to see if Landry Jones is cut and Rudolph is immediately entrenched as the backup, or if Rudolph with start as the 3rd-stringer thus pushing Dobbs to the practice squad.
Round 3, Pick 92: Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan
One of the clear priorities for Pittsburgh was building back up the Offensive Line depth, and I expected a mid-round pick to be used to do so. OT Chris Hubbard, who started 10 games this past season while incumbent starter Marcus Gilbert battled with injuries and a PED suspension, signed a nice contract to go start for the Cleveland Browns. Hubbard, and the stability he brought when Gilbert went down, will be sorely missed, and the Steelers needed to start developing a new OT with Gilbert’s contract soon coming to a close. One word to describe Chukwuma Okorafor is raw, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing given OL Coach Mike Munchak’s track record. Okorafor looks the part of an NFL OT, with a 6’6 320 frame and lengthy arms. He has quick feet and solid functional strength. Okorafor, however, is not exactly the best athlete (but far from a huge mess like Orlando Brown or Jamarco Jones) and his technique is incredibly wonky. There is little pressure for Okorafor to play early as he is behind Marcus Gilbert and likely Matt Feiler, so Munchak will have a lot of time to iron out his technique and mold him into a starting-caliber player. If this works out, Okorafor will be our eventual RT replacement for Marcus Gilbert. Continuity along the OL is crucial for a team’s success.
Round 5, Pick 148: Marcus Allen, SAF, Penn State
For my money, I expect Marcus Allen to end up converting to LB full-time. His film shows a player that hits like a train and is not afraid of contact whatsoever. He is aggressive and physical, and he makes his presence felt over the middle. Given our lack of ILB depth and the skillset he brings, I think the best course of action is to bulk up a bit and become a true LB. Don’t even bother with coverage where he struggles outside of basic underneath man concepts, and instead let him be a physical run defender. Despite this, Allen can and likely will be used as a traditional SS in some packages, where we could use improved second-level tackling and aggression. The Steelers definitely liked his down-hill style of play, and the leadership he brought to Penn State’s secondary. Depending on the extent of versatility the Steelers defense operates with, Allen could see some time playing SS or LB early.
Round 5, Pick 165: Jaylen Samuels, OW, North Carolina State
I have marked NC State player Jaylen Samuels as an offensive weapon, because he basically played every role for them. Traditionally he’s an RB, but he also played snaps at TE, slot WR, and FB. He’s a do-it-all player, and his stats and usage at NC State reflect that. Samuels accumulated 1000 yards through both rushing and receiving, and he acted as a mismatch for opposing defenses. As a runner, he has good speed and makes sharp cuts, and can run both inside in out (including jet-sweeps). As a pass catcher, he can catch out of the backfield and line up directly in the slot. This pick, to me, seems like effectively bracing for the potential departure of Le’Veon Bell. Our offense is heavily reliant on Bell’s capabilities as a pass-catcher, and Jaylen Samuels brings exactly that. If Bell is to depart, I expect the Steelers to match Samuels’ pass-catching capabilities with more of a pure-runner to create a RB duo. Regardless of what becomes of the Bell situation however, Samuels can be an immediate contributor. Given our lack of depth at WR, Samuels could see a lot of time as a slot WR or in situations where Bell lines up out wide and he starts in the backfield. I expect our OC Randy Fichtner to use him to create mismatches, creating another issue that defenses have to deal with. Also, Samuels will very likely be a special teams ace, including possibly as a returner.
Round 7, Pick 246: Joshua Frazier, DT, Alabama
To conclude their draft, the Steelers picked exactly who I expected them to with Alabama DT Joshua Frazier. The Steelers hired former Alabama DL Coach Karl Dunbar to the exact same role, and they met and had dinner with Frazier at the Alabama pro day. It was an obvious connection. Frazier didn’t play much at Alabama due to the abundance of talent they have on their DL, but he still had a role as a run-stuffer. That’s exactly what he’ll be for us if he makes the roster. Frazier has ideal NT size and plays with aggression and strength to stuff the run. He’s not really capable of doing anything outside of space-eating, but that is something we could use as depth. He has a very clear path to a roster spot, having only to beat out Dan McCullers for the backup NT spot. If he makes the roster, I expect him to be used in goal-line/obvious run situations. Decent depth to have, and it’s nice to give our new DL coach one of his former players.
Notable UDFAs
Matthew Thomas, LB, Florida State: Best bet to make the 53-man roster given our lack of depth and athleticism at ILB. Thomas is the very best SPARQ LB in this class, with a +2.0 Z-Score, and his explosiveness shows on film. His 2016 tape shows a speedy player and capable playmaker in the box and who does well against outside runs. Thomas, like really everyone on the 2017 FSU defense, struggled this past season. If he can show just something instinctually, there’s a very good chance the Steelers keep him on roster for his athleticism alone.
Quadree Henderson, WR, Pittsburgh: Local product who has played his career at Heinz Field, Quadree is a gadget player and threat as a returner. He tied the ACC record for punt-return TDs in his career at Pittsburgh. I can’t even remember the last time we had a return threat, so if Quadree can continue to show something in that department he has a chance to make the roster. He’ll likely have to show improvement as a receiver to avoid the practice squad initially, but with our lack of WR depth it’s not impossible.
Ola Adeniyi, EDGE, Toledo: Adeniyi has some sort of shot to make our roster simply due to lack of EDGE depth. He’s not an amazing athlete and he doesn’t have ideal measurable, but he has experience as a stand-up pass rusher and he has active hands and strength. Long-shot, but possible.
Roster Prediction
Italicized = Projected Stater
QB: (3) Ben Roethlisberger, Landry Jones, Mason Rudolph
RB: (4) Le’Veon Bell, James Conner, Jaylen Samuels, Roosevelt Nix (FB)
WR: (5) Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Marcus Tucker
TE: (3) Vance McDonald, Jesse James, Jake McGee
OL: (9) Alejandro Villanueva, Ramon Foster, Maurkice Pouncey, David DeCastro, Marcus Gilbert, BJ Finney, Matt Feiler, Jerald Hawkins, Chukwuma Okorafor
DL: (6) Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, Javon Hargrave, Tyson Alualu, LT Walton, Joshua Frazier
EDGE: (4) TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, Anthony Chickillo, Keion Adams
ILB: (6) Vince Williams, Jon Bostic, Marcus Allen, Tyler Matakevich, LJ Fort, Matthew Thomas
CB: (5) Artie Burns, Joe Haden, Mike Hilton, Cameron Sutton, Brian Allen
SAF: (5) Morgan Burnett, Sean Davis, Terrell Edmunds, Nat Behre, Malik Golden
ST: (3) Chris Boswell, Jordan Berry, Kameron Canaday
Future Needs
Inside Linebacker: It’s very unlikely Ryan Shazier will be back for 2019 or even ever, and the combination of Jon Bostic + Sub-Package Players is not a long-term solution. Getting a true starter at LB is a must, particularly one with good athleticism and range.
EDGE: The Steelers exercised Bud Dupree’s 5th-year option, but he hasn’t quite been as good as expected and our depth here is incredibly poor. The Steelers need someone who can be a rotational pass-rusher or even potentially a future starter if Bud Dupree fails to develop.
Running Back: This is entirely dependent on Le’Veon Bell’s contract. If he reaches a long-term deal, write this one off completely. If he doesn’t, then I expect a pure runner to pair with Jaylen Samuels.
Cornerback: Our CB situation looks set for the near future, but a Joe Haden replacement isn’t the worst idea given his age. Haden only has two more years left on his deal, so grooming a replacement could work. This becomes a bigger need if Artie Burns fails to improve.
Interior Offensive Line: Maurkice Pouncey and Ramon Foster are both getting up there in age. BJ Finney will likely get the first crack at replacing them, but if a talented player is there for us it may be worth taking.
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2018.06.04 18:05 Maad-Dog Incorporating Rushing Value to Comparisons Between Mobile and Traditional QBs [OC]

Now, more than ever, there are QBs who are able to add value onto their team using their legs. There are a few trains of thoughts that follow this, dependent on who the player actually is. For some players, the feeling is that their rushing ability is integral to their game and raises their total value as a QB (Cam, Wilson, Watson, etc.). For some QBs, it's thought of as the only thing a QB is good at while they're a terrible passer (Tyrod, Kizer, etc.). But unlike traditional passers where we could compare things like completion %, passer rating, ANY/A, and other stats, it gets hard to try and figure out what kind of value a QB really adds with his rushing. Cam is a worse passer than Cousins for example, but does his rushing value make him better than Cousins? Let's try to add some objectivity to these comparisons.
Note 1: For ease, I'm not going to include the QB's contributions as a receiver in these stats. My apologies to Brett Hundley, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, and Tom Brady.
Note 2: All stats shown here are for the 2017 regular season. Minimum 4 games (1/4th of the season) to qualify. My apologies to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Nick Foles, TJ Yates, and Bryce Petty who just barely missed the cutoff.
Completions and Completion %
Generally this is a pretty easy statistic to calculate for pure passing, but the issue arises on how this stat should be calculated if you start to include rushing. One of the main issues is that sometimes, rushing attempts for negative yardage for a QB count as rushes, and sometimes they count as sacks. Since this is an attempt to evaluate all of a QBs play rather than rushing, I am going to define a "general completion" as either a pass or a run that results in positive yardage. This is a bit different than your standard completion, as you can get completions with negative yardage. However, for the purposes of this exercise, I felt that negative rushes or sacks shouldn't be counted as completions, and therefore am adjusting the definition of pass completions to also be for positive yardage. That means anything for no yardage (no net gain by the offense and the same result as an incompletion) or anything for negative yardage (worse than an incompletion) now counts as an incompletion. Let's see how this modified general completion (and corresponding completion % over all passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks) compares to the standard completion %.
Note 3: Keep in mind that this changes the "meaning" behind completion %. It was originally used to have a very raw estimate of a passer's general accuracy. Now it's more seen as the chance that a QB, when given the ball, will gain yardage on the down.
Player Cmp Cmp % Gen Cmp Gen Cmp %
Drew Brees 386 72.01 374 63.50
Jimmy Garoppolo 120 67.42 124 61.69
Deshaun Watson 126 61.76 159 61.39
Case Keenum 325 67.57 333 61.33
Alex Smith 341 67.52 366 61.00
Dak Prescott 308 62.86 348 60.10
Tom Brady 385 66.27 385 60.06
Matt Ryan 342 64.65 350 59.83
Jameis Winston 282 63.8 302 59.45
Mike Glennon 93 66.43 90 59.21
Marcus Mariota 281 62.03 317 58.70
Aaron Rodgers 154 64.71 166 58.45
Jay Cutler 266 62 272 58.12
Russell Wilson 339 61.3 401 58.03
Blake Bortles 315 60.23 347 57.45
Philip Rivers 360 62.61 351 57.45
Carson Wentz 265 60.23 305 57.33
Kirk Cousins 347 64.26 361 57.30
Derek Carr 323 62.72 318 56.99
Cam Newton 291 59.15 379 56.91
Josh McCown 267 67.25 269 56.87
Matthew Stafford 371 65.66 364 56.79
Ben Roethlisberger 360 64.17 346 56.72
Tyrod Taylor 263 62.62 311 56.55
Joe Flacco 352 64.12 339 56.41
Eli Manning 352 61.65 346 56.35
Jared Goff 296 62.05 296 55.85
Brett Hundley 192 60.76 211 55.38
Carson Palmer 164 61.42 164 54.13
Jacoby Brissett 276 58.85 315 53.94
Trevor Siemian 206 59.03 221 53.51
Mitch Trubisky 196 59.39 215 53.48
Brock Osweiler 96 55.81 104 53.06
Andy Dalton 297 59.88 299 52.18
DeShone Kizer 255 53.57 306 51.78
C.J. Beathard 123 54.91 139 51.67
Brian Hoyer 123 58.29 121 51.27
Tom Savage 125 56.05 122 49.19
Blaine Gabbert 95 55.56 106 48.85
Drew Stanton 79 49.69 79 45.14​
Observations:
Josh McCown didn't fare well here. He went from the QB with the 5th highest completion % to the 21st gen completion %.
On the other hand, DeShaun Watson shoots up the board here. Although he only had the 22nd completion %, he has the 3rd best gen completion % behind only Brees (set the completion % record this season) and Jimmy G (partner in small sample size domination).
Most rushing QBs benefitted by the calculation of gen comp % compared to normal completion %. Tyrod is the outlier here. 18th in completion %, he was 25th in gen completion %. What this suggests is a much larger portion of negative runs/sacks than other QBs.
Wilson and Cam shoot up the board in terms of total general completions, as now their positive rushing attempts show that in terms of positive yardage volume, they're right up there with the best in the game like Brees and Brady.
Oh geez, Savage, Gabbert, and especially Drew Stanton come off this looking horrendous (what a surprise), as they are literally not likely to gain yardage when the ball is put in their hand.
TDs and TD %
The rest of these stats are much more easily computed and simpler to understand. Let's look at their total number of passing + rushing TDs, as well as number of TDs over touches (pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks). Touches will be used for all of our percentage numbers in these stats, for reference.
Player TD TD % Gen TD Gen TD %
Deshaun Watson 19 9.3 21 8.1
Carson Wentz 33 7.5 33 6.2
Aaron Rodgers 16 6.7 16 5.6
Jared Goff 28 5.9 29 5.5
Russell Wilson 34 6.1 37 5.4
Tom Brady 32 5.5 32 5.0
Kirk Cousins 27 5 31 4.9
Josh McCown 18 4.5 23 4.9
Dak Prescott 22 4.5 28 4.8
Ben Roethlisberger 28 5 28 4.6
Philip Rivers 28 4.9 28 4.6
Matthew Stafford 29 5.1 29 4.5
Alex Smith 26 5.1 27 4.5
Andy Dalton 25 5 25 4.4
Drew Brees 23 4.3 25 4.2
Case Keenum 22 4.6 23 4.2
Cam Newton 22 4.5 28 4.2
Jay Cutler 19 4.4 19 4.1
Jimmy Garoppolo 7 3.9 8 4.0
Derek Carr 22 4.3 22 3.9
Jameis Winston 19 4.3 20 3.9
Blake Bortles 21 4 23 3.8
Drew Stanton 6 3.8 6 3.4
Matt Ryan 20 3.8 20 3.4
Marcus Mariota 13 2.9 18 3.3
Tyrod Taylor 14 3.3 18 3.3
Eli Manning 19 3.3 20 3.3
Joe Flacco 18 3.3 19 3.2
Trevor Siemian 12 3.4 13 3.1
Brock Osweiler 5 2.9 6 3.1
Carson Palmer 9 3.4 9 3.0
Jacoby Brissett 13 2.8 17 2.9
Brett Hundley 9 2.8 11 2.9
Blaine Gabbert 6 3.5 6 2.8
DeShone Kizer 11 2.3 16 2.7
Mike Glennon 4 2.9 4 2.6
C.J. Beathard 4 1.8 7 2.6
Mitch Trubisky 7 2.1 9 2.2
Brian Hoyer 4 1.9 5 2.1
Tom Savage 5 2.2 5 2.0​
Observations:
Holy fuck Watson.
Cam goes from 13th to 9th in general TDs, but stays at 16th in both percentages. Although his volume of rushing TDs is the greatest in the league, and what he's known for, it doesn't actually increase his TD % when seen in the context of his rushing plays either.
Dak also had the same number of passing and rushing TDs, but he moves from 15th to 9th in general TD %.
TO and TO %
Since we're now incorporating rushing, I feel it necessary to incorporate fumbles into a total turnover stat as well. Both turn the ball over to the other team, and rushers can often be more vulnerable to fumbles (Wilson was 16th in total interceptions, but 2nd in total fumbles). Let's look at the total turnovers and TO % as compared to INTs and INT %.
Player Int Int % TO TO %
Mike Glennon 5 3.57 10 6.58
Blaine Gabbert 6 3.51 13 5.99
Tom Savage 6 2.69 14 5.65
DeShone Kizer 22 4.62 31 5.25
Jameis Winston 11 2.49 26 5.12
Trevor Siemian 14 4.01 19 4.60
Drew Stanton 5 3.14 8 4.57
Jay Cutler 14 3.26 20 4.27
Deshaun Watson 8 3.92 11 4.25
Mitch Trubisky 7 2.12 17 4.23
Josh McCown 9 2.27 20 4.23
Brett Hundley 12 3.8 16 4.20
Kirk Cousins 13 2.41 26 4.13
Eli Manning 13 2.28 24 3.91
Derek Carr 13 2.52 21 3.76
Cam Newton 16 3.25 25 3.75
Blake Bortles 13 2.49 22 3.64
Russell Wilson 11 1.99 25 3.62
Brock Osweiler 5 2.91 7 3.57
C.J. Beathard 6 2.68 9 3.35
Matthew Stafford 10 1.77 21 3.28
Joe Flacco 13 2.37 19 3.16
Marcus Mariota 15 3.31 17 3.15
Carson Wentz 7 1.59 16 3.01
Jimmy Garoppolo 5 2.81 6 2.99
Carson Palmer 7 2.62 9 2.97
Brian Hoyer 4 1.9 7 2.97
Philip Rivers 10 1.74 18 2.95
Dak Prescott 13 2.65 17 2.94
Jared Goff 7 1.47 15 2.83
Andy Dalton 12 2.42 16 2.79
Ben Roethlisberger 14 2.5 17 2.79
Matt Ryan 12 2.27 16 2.74
Jacoby Brissett 7 1.49 15 2.57
Aaron Rodgers 6 2.52 7 2.46
Tom Brady 8 1.38 15 2.34
Drew Brees 8 1.49 13 2.21
Case Keenum 7 1.46 8 1.47
Tyrod Taylor 4 0.95 8 1.45
Alex Smith 5 0.99 7 1.17​
Observations:
Mariota and Rodgers are the only ones who's TO % was actually lower than their INT %, great job preventing fumbles from 2 mobile QBs.
Alex Smith was behind Tyrod in terms of INT %, but when looking at overall TO %, Smith easily nabs the top spot, the best protector of the ball this year.
If you thought Glennon's 5th worst INT % was bad, he is much worse when looking at his total turnover %. He essentially turns it over every 15 times he touches the ball. That's, on average, turning the ball over every 4 drives.
Winston goes from 16th in INTs to 3rd in turnovers (20th in INT% to 5th in TO%), despite playing only 13 games. Wilson also went from 17th in INTs to 5th in turnovers, but that was partially because he had the ball so much, was only 18th in TO% (below average, but not atrocious).
Gen Yards and Gen Y/A
Another simple one, basically just looking at the total yardage that QBs were able to acquire on their legs and with their arm (minus their sack yardage since a lot of negative runs count as sacks). This is where it starts to get really interesting to me, because especially when looking at Gen Y/A, QBs that might get praised for their rushing contributions when looking at their volume, might actually come out worse in the long run because traditional QBs who'll try to find a pass instead of running can end up averaging more yards per touch than those that rack up short runs.
Player Yds Y/A Gen Yds Gen Y/A
Jimmy Garoppolo 1560 8.76 1514 7.532
Philip Rivers 4515 7.85 4393 7.190
Deshaun Watson 1699 8.33 1852 7.151
Drew Brees 4334 8.09 4201 7.132
Alex Smith 4042 8 4190 6.983
Matt Ryan 4095 7.74 4082 6.978
Jared Goff 3804 7.97 3683 6.949
Tom Brady 4577 7.88 4404 6.871
Ben Roethlisberger 4251 7.58 4159 6.818
Jameis Winston 3504 7.93 3432 6.756
Matthew Stafford 4446 7.87 4257 6.641
Case Keenum 3547 7.37 3571 6.576
Carson Wentz 3296 7.49 3433 6.453
Blake Bortles 3687 7.05 3886 6.434
Marcus Mariota 3232 7.13 3371 6.243
Kirk Cousins 4093 7.58 3930 6.238
Derek Carr 3496 6.79 3461 6.203
Russell Wilson 3983 7.2 4247 6.146
Carson Palmer 1978 7.41 1840 6.073
Dak Prescott 3324 6.78 3496 6.038
Josh McCown 2926 7.37 2786 5.890
Aaron Rodgers 1675 7.04 1633 5.750
Cam Newton 3302 6.71 3814 5.727
Mitch Trubisky 2193 6.65 2245 5.585
Brock Osweiler 1088 6.33 1088 5.551
Andy Dalton 3320 6.69 3164 5.522
Jay Cutler 2666 6.21 2544 5.436
Tyrod Taylor 2799 6.66 2970 5.400
Eli Manning 3468 6.07 3305 5.383
Trevor Siemian 2285 6.55 2192 5.308
C.J. Beathard 1430 6.38 1425 5.297
Jacoby Brissett 3098 6.61 3053 5.228
DeShone Kizer 2894 6.08 3087 5.223
Tom Savage 1412 6.33 1255 5.060
Brett Hundley 1836 5.81 1909 5.010
Brian Hoyer 1287 6.1 1179 4.996
Mike Glennon 833 5.95 759 4.993
Joe Flacco 3141 5.72 2990 4.975
Drew Stanton 894 5.62 861 4.920
Blaine Gabbert 1086 6.35 1019 4.696​
Holy fuck Jimmy G.
There are very legitimate reasons to why Cam is seen as a mediocre QB, specifically when speaking of his efficiency. But you might think his volume is bad too when seeing his passing yardage ranked 18th in the league, even though he played all 16 games (ranked an astoundingly bad 28th in passing yards/game out of 40 qualifying QBs). But being ranked 11th in total yardage (and 20th per game) starts looking a good amount better on his end.
Wilson is another riser going from 9th to 4th in total yards.
But let's look and see how the biggest rushers in total yards do in terms of helping their gen yards/touch. Cam goes from 23rd to ... 23rd. Wilson goes from 17th to 18th, actually looking worse compared to other QBs when looking at gen yards/touch. Tyrod goes from 25th to 28th. Kizer is our first riser from 35th to 33rd, and that's mostly because he was just so bad as a QB. The conclusion here is that although the best rushing QBs can put up some great yardage, they're not yielding any more yards per touch than their traditional counterparts. They're just getting yardage in a different way. Even looking at the best QBs in Y/A, Wilson and Watson both dropped at least 1 spot, Prescott rose just 1 spot from 22nd to 21st, and Hundley rose from 38th to 35th, again partially because he was just so bad.
Comprehensive Stats
So we've now looked at the 4 major areas of passing stats (completions, TDs, INTs, yards) and transformed those stats into more general, all-inclusive variants. What happens though if we take our standard comprehensive passing stats like passer rating and ANY/A, and then instead adapt them to work with these new, more comprehensive passing stats?
*sorted by Gen ANY/A
Player Rate ANY/A Gen ANY/A Gen Passer Rating
Alex Smith 104.7 7.65 7.36 103.40
Drew Brees 103.9 7.71 6.99 100.92
Jimmy Garoppolo 96.2 7.62 6.99 96.96
Deshaun Watson 103 7.19 6.86 103.62
Tom Brady 102.8 7.56 6.82 98.90
Philip Rivers 96 7.6 6.78 94.16
Jared Goff 100.5 7.72 6.77 95.28
Case Keenum 98.3 7.03 6.76 99.82
Ben Roethlisberger 93.4 6.95 6.48 92.70
Matt Ryan 91.4 6.87 6.43 92.26
Carson Wentz 101.9 7.43 6.34 96.14
Matthew Stafford 99.3 7.01 6.07 89.76
Aaron Rodgers 97.2 5.99 5.77 94.51
Dak Prescott 86.6 5.74 5.68 92.46
Russell Wilson 95.4 6.45 5.59 90.08
Blake Bortles 84.7 6.21 5.56 85.53
Marcus Mariota 79.3 5.51 5.49 86.26
Tyrod Taylor 89.2 5.67 5.40 87.80
Kirk Cousins 93.9 6.38 5.37 86.28
Carson Palmer 84.4 5.86 5.33 81.27
Derek Carr 86.4 6.07 5.30 84.13
Jameis Winston 92.2 6.7 5.24 82.82
Andy Dalton 86.6 5.65 5.14 82.73
Josh McCown 94.5 6 4.96 83.86
Cam Newton 80.7 5.28 4.88 82.99
Jacoby Brissett 81.7 5.26 4.65 79.07
Brock Osweiler 72.5 4.94 4.56 76.00
Jay Cutler 80.8 5.04 4.32 80.14
C.J. Beathard 69.2 4.52 4.31 73.20
Eli Manning 80.4 5.11 4.28 77.29
Joe Flacco 80.4 4.71 4.18 78.43
Mitch Trubisky 77.5 5.05 4.13 71.01
Brian Hoyer 74.5 4.74 4.08 71.58
Trevor Siemian 73.3 4.38 3.87 71.36
Brett Hundley 70.6 3.71 3.70 72.49
Drew Stanton 66.4 4.51 3.55 63.83
DeShone Kizer 60.5 3.69 3.40 65.41
Tom Savage 71.4 4.44 2.92 58.61
Mike Glennon 76.9 4.12 2.56 64.84
Blaine Gabbert 71.9 4.06 2.55 57.86​
Observations:
The big drops in passer rating to general passer rating: Matthew Stafford (7th -> 15th), Jameis Winston (16th -> 23rd)
The big risers in passer rating to general passer rating: Marcus Mariota (29th -> 18th), Dak Prescott (19th -> 12th), CJ Beathard (38th -> 31st), Case Keenum (8th -> 4th)
The big drops in ANY/A to gen ANY/A: Jameis Winston (13th -> 22nd), Carson Wentz (7th -> 11th), Jared Goff (1st -> 7th)
The big risers in ANY/A to gen ANY/A: Marcus Mariota (24th -> 17th), Dak Prescott (21st -> 14th), Aaron Rodgers (19th -> 13th), DeShaun Watson (8th -> 4th)
Comprehensive Stats Part 2
There are some other stats we can look at that take in a comprehensive view of the different aspects. The first is ESPN's QBR, which does take into account rushing ability. It essentially rates QBs based on each snap they play, and how many expected points they add (based on the down and distance, yards gained, distance from the end zone, TDs, and INTs thrown, etc.) and aggregates a total grade. This has its pros, but also its cons, as sometimes looking too closely at the situation, i.e. down and distance, on how expected points are generated can give undesired effects to the stats. For example, a QB that consistently converted 1st downs on 2nd downs would have a lower QBR than one who did on 3rd downs, because converting on 3rd downs gives you significantly higher expected points added (because the other option is usually a loss of possession) whereas converting on 2nd down is either 1st and 10, or 3rd and x, which isn't as big of a drop in expected points. However, you could easily argue that the QB converting on 2nd rather than 3rd is better.
We can also look at ANY/A without the "/A" to get a better comprehensive estimate of the volume these QBs are putting out. Passer rating, ANY/A, and QBR are all efficiency metrics, so it would be nice to get a comprehensive volume stat so we don't completely disregard volume and look only at efficiency. This would essentially be adjusted net yards, rather than adjusted net yards per attempt.
Finally, I'm going to throw in a statistic that I created after being unsatisfied with how ANY/A calculated their numbers. I wasn't satisfied with the random value of 20 yards and -45 yards that were assigned to TDs and INTs, and although they do have some work backing it up, those numbers are far too round to be legitimately accurate. Additionally, it makes no sense to give more than two times value to INTs rather than TDs. Although it's possible the net value of an INT is that you lose out on a TD and the other team gains it, that is not nearly the average case, nor would the value of an INT really ever be worth more than two times a TD. I talk more about how I began to formulate the statistic here, but in a blind test here it was shown to be around equivalent to evaluating QBs as raw passer rating, and better than ANY/A, which I aimed to improve upon. Regardless, here we will look both at EC/T (the efficiency metric that accounts for rushing) and EC (the volume metric that accounts for rushing) where EC stands for expected contribution, and T stands for touch.
*sorted by Gen ANY
Player EC EC/T Gen ANY QBR
Alex Smith 405.01 67.502 4,415 61.6
Tom Brady 418.77 65.331 4,369 67.4
Philip Rivers 391.29 64.041 4,143 57.4
Drew Brees 379.01 64.348 4,116 59.0
Ben Roethlisberger 365.54 59.925 3,954 63.2
Matthew Stafford 379.02 59.129 3,892 61.7
Russell Wilson 400.10 57.901 3,862 58.3
Matt Ryan 334.38 57.159 3,762 63.7
Case Keenum 334.58 61.618 3,671 69.7
Jared Goff 353.67 66.731 3,588 52.0
Kirk Cousins 344.92 54.750 3,380 52.3
Carson Wentz 348.49 65.505 3,373 75.9
Blake Bortles 317.27 52.528 3,356 55.6
Dak Prescott 316.91 54.734 3,291 66.7
Cam Newton 318.68 47.849 3,249 47.7
Tyrod Taylor 275.56 50.101 2,970 52.7
Marcus Mariota 262.45 48.602 2,966 54.9
Derek Carr 282.48 50.623 2,956 46.7
Andy Dalton 283.69 49.510 2,944 41.1
Jacoby Brissett 257.16 44.035 2,718 39.6
Jameis Winston 267.41 52.640 2,662 48.2
Eli Manning 256.66 41.802 2,625 43.8
Joe Flacco 238.08 39.614 2,515 43.0
Josh McCown 246.10 52.030 2,346 51.9
Jay Cutler 199.39 42.604 2,024 39.8
DeShone Kizer 188.60 31.911 2,012 29.4
Deshaun Watson 186.00 71.816 1,777 81.3
Mitch Trubisky 159.08 39.572 1,660 29.2
Aaron Rodgers 161.71 56.939 1,638 62.6
Carson Palmer 143.36 47.314 1,615 46.3
Trevor Siemian 150.22 36.372 1,597 27.8
Brett Hundley 131.06 34.399 1,409 41.2
Jimmy Garoppolo 124.89 62.136 1,404 80.5
C.J. Beathard 105.82 39.340 1,160 32.0
Brian Hoyer 87.58 37.111 964 31.9
Brock Osweiler 82.16 41.918 893 46.4
Tom Savage 75.07 30.268 725 38.1
Drew Stanton 62.75 35.855 621 35.9
Blaine Gabbert 62.83 28.953 554 30.7
Mike Glennon 43.02 28.306 389 21.9​
Observations:
To clarify what makes the difference between Gen ANY and EC, EC values TDs more than Gen ANY, and factors in fumbles specifically as weighing less, as well as yardage.
Looking at what I believe is the first QB comprehensive volume stats in Gen ANY and EC (someone pls correct me if I'm wrong, I don't want to sound like an idiot), there are def some things that pop out.
Brady and Smith are unquestionably above the rest in terms of total contribution during the season. They switch between 1 and 2 depending on which stat you choose, but they're a cut above the rest. Rivers is a sneaky third in there though. Also Smith did it in 15 games, which is even more crazy, so his volume/game was the best in the league.
Guys like Cam and Russ get pushed up a little bit, although their rushing contributions aren't as great on a per play basis, they really do show up more when looking at total volume.
I thought I was high on Dak with the stats above, but QBR is kind of ludicrous, 4th??? They value clutchness too high for my own liking.

TL;DR

We've gotten to a point in QB play where the rushing contributions of QBs can't be ignored, and factoring them into our statistical analysis starts becoming more necessary. We see QBs like Mariota and Dak climb the leaderboards when we take their rushing game into account, and QBs like Winston drop when we do the same. It can give us a better idea of their TD production, tendency to turn over the ball with the addition of fumbles, and can even give us a new way to evaluate QBs based on volume. I don't want to say too much more because I don't want this post to be about what I think these statistics mean, but more on the method of creating these statistics, whether they're useful, and the interesting things you guys find in these tables. Please give me any feedback you may have, I'd appreciate it a ton!
EDIT: Here's the full spreadsheet with all the numbers and partial calculations for those of you that want to play around and find other things.
submitted by Maad-Dog to nfl [link] [comments]


2018.05.29 18:57 Maad-Dog Incorporating Rushing Value to Comparisons Between Mobile and Traditional QBs [OC]

Now, more than ever, there are QBs who are able to add value onto their team using their legs. There are a few trains of thoughts that follow this, dependent on who the player actually is. For some players, the feeling is that their rushing ability is integral to their game and raises their total value as a QB (Cam, Wilson, Watson, etc.). For some QBs, it's thought of as the only thing a QB is good at while they're a terrible passer (Tyrod, Kizer, etc.). But unlike traditional passers where we could compare things like completion %, passer rating, ANY/A, and other stats, it gets hard to try and figure out what kind of value a QB really adds with his rushing. Cam is a worse passer than Cousins for example, but does his rushing value make him better than Cousins? Let's try to add some objectivity to these comparisons.
Note 1: For ease, I'm not going to include the QB's contributions as a receiver in these stats. My apologies to Brett Hundley, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, and Tom Brady.
Note 2: All stats shown here are for the 2017 regular season. Minimum 4 games (1/4th of the season) to qualify. My apologies to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Nick Foles, TJ Yates, and Bryce Petty who just barely missed the cutoff.
Completions and Completion %
Generally this is a pretty easy statistic to calculate for pure passing, but the issue arises on how this stat should be calculated if you start to include rushing. One of the main issues is that sometimes, rushing attempts for negative yardage for a QB count as rushes, and sometimes they count as sacks. Since this is an attempt to evaluate all of a QBs play rather than rushing, I am going to define a "general completion" as either a pass or a run that results in positive yardage. This is a bit different than your standard completion, as you can get completions with negative yardage. However, for the purposes of this exercise, I felt that negative rushes or sacks shouldn't be counted as completions, and therefore am adjusting the definition of pass completions to also be for positive yardage. That means anything for no yardage (no net gain by the offense and the same result as an incompletion) or anything for negative yardage (worse than an incompletion) now counts as an incompletion. Let's see how this modified general completion (and corresponding completion % over all passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks) compares to the standard completion %.
Note 3: Keep in mind that this changes the "meaning" behind completion %. It was originally used to have a very raw estimate of a passer's general accuracy. Now it's more seen as the chance that a QB, when given the ball, will gain yardage on the down.
Player Cmp Cmp % Gen Cmp Gen Cmp %
Drew Brees 386 72.01 374 63.50
Jimmy Garoppolo 120 67.42 124 61.69
Deshaun Watson 126 61.76 159 61.39
Case Keenum 325 67.57 333 61.33
Alex Smith 341 67.52 366 61.00
Dak Prescott 308 62.86 348 60.10
Tom Brady 385 66.27 385 60.06
Matt Ryan 342 64.65 350 59.83
Jameis Winston 282 63.8 302 59.45
Mike Glennon 93 66.43 90 59.21
Marcus Mariota 281 62.03 317 58.70
Aaron Rodgers 154 64.71 166 58.45
Jay Cutler 266 62 272 58.12
Russell Wilson 339 61.3 401 58.03
Blake Bortles 315 60.23 347 57.45
Philip Rivers 360 62.61 351 57.45
Carson Wentz 265 60.23 305 57.33
Kirk Cousins 347 64.26 361 57.30
Derek Carr 323 62.72 318 56.99
Cam Newton 291 59.15 379 56.91
Josh McCown 267 67.25 269 56.87
Matthew Stafford 371 65.66 364 56.79
Ben Roethlisberger 360 64.17 346 56.72
Tyrod Taylor 263 62.62 311 56.55
Joe Flacco 352 64.12 339 56.41
Eli Manning 352 61.65 346 56.35
Jared Goff 296 62.05 296 55.85
Brett Hundley 192 60.76 211 55.38
Carson Palmer 164 61.42 164 54.13
Jacoby Brissett 276 58.85 315 53.94
Trevor Siemian 206 59.03 221 53.51
Mitch Trubisky 196 59.39 215 53.48
Brock Osweiler 96 55.81 104 53.06
Andy Dalton 297 59.88 299 52.18
DeShone Kizer 255 53.57 306 51.78
C.J. Beathard 123 54.91 139 51.67
Brian Hoyer 123 58.29 121 51.27
Tom Savage 125 56.05 122 49.19
Blaine Gabbert 95 55.56 106 48.85
Drew Stanton 79 49.69 79 45.14​
Observations:
Josh McCown didn't fare here. He went from the QB with the 5th highest completion % to the 21st gen completion %.
On the other hand, DeShaun Watson shoots up the board here. Although he only had the 22nd completion %, he has the 3rd best gen completion % behind only Brees (set the completion % record this season) and Jimmy G (partner in small sample size domination)
Most rushing QBs benefitted by the calculation of gen comp % compared to normal completion %. Tyrod is the outlier here. 18th in completion %, he was 25th in gen completion %. What this suggests is a much larger portion of negative runs/sacks than other QBs.
Wilson and Cam shoot up the board in terms of total general completions, as now their positive rushing attempts show that in terms of positive yardage volume, they're right up there with the best in the game.
Oh geez, Savage, Gabbert, and especially Drew Stanton come off this looking horrendous (what a surprise), as they are literally not likely to gain yardage when the ball is put in their hand.
TDs and TD %
The rest of these stats are much more easily computed and simpler to understand. Let's look at their total number of passing + rushing TDs, as well as number of TDs over touches (pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks). Touches will be used for all of our percentage numbers in these stats, for reference.
Player TD TD% TDs TDs/Touch
Deshaun Watson 19 9.3 21 8.1
Carson Wentz 33 7.5 33 6.2
Aaron Rodgers 16 6.7 16 5.6
Jared Goff 28 5.9 29 5.5
Russell Wilson 34 6.1 37 5.4
Tom Brady 32 5.5 32 5.0
Kirk Cousins 27 5 31 4.9
Josh McCown 18 4.5 23 4.9
Dak Prescott 22 4.5 28 4.8
Ben Roethlisberger 28 5 28 4.6
Philip Rivers 28 4.9 28 4.6
Matthew Stafford 29 5.1 29 4.5
Alex Smith 26 5.1 27 4.5
Andy Dalton 25 5 25 4.4
Drew Brees 23 4.3 25 4.2
Case Keenum 22 4.6 23 4.2
Cam Newton 22 4.5 28 4.2
Jay Cutler 19 4.4 19 4.1
Jimmy Garoppolo 7 3.9 8 4.0
Derek Carr 22 4.3 22 3.9
Jameis Winston 19 4.3 20 3.9
Blake Bortles 21 4 23 3.8
Drew Stanton 6 3.8 6 3.4
Matt Ryan 20 3.8 20 3.4
Marcus Mariota 13 2.9 18 3.3
Tyrod Taylor 14 3.3 18 3.3
Eli Manning 19 3.3 20 3.3
Joe Flacco 18 3.3 19 3.2
Trevor Siemian 12 3.4 13 3.1
Brock Osweiler 5 2.9 6 3.1
Carson Palmer 9 3.4 9 3.0
Jacoby Brissett 13 2.8 17 2.9
Brett Hundley 9 2.8 11 2.9
Blaine Gabbert 6 3.5 6 2.8
DeShone Kizer 11 2.3 16 2.7
Mike Glennon 4 2.9 4 2.6
C.J. Beathard 4 1.8 7 2.6
Mitch Trubisky 7 2.1 9 2.2
Brian Hoyer 4 1.9 5 2.1
Tom Savage 5 2.2 5 2.0​
Observations:
Holy fuck Watson.
Cam goes from 13th to 9th in general TDs, but stays at 16th in both percentages. Although his volume of rushing TDs is the greatest in the league, and what he's known for, it doesn't actually increase his TD % when seen in the context of his rushing plays either. Dak also had the same number of passing and rushing TDs, but he moves from 15th to 9th in general TD %.
TO and TO %
Since we're now incorporating rushing, I feel it necessary to incorporate fumbles into a total turnover stat as well. Both turn the ball over to the other team, and rushers can often be more vulnerable to fumbles (Wilson was 16th in total interceptions, but 2nd in total fumbles). Let's look at the total turnovers and TO % as compared to INTs and INT %.
Player Int Int % TO TO %
Mike Glennon 5 3.57 10 6.58
Blaine Gabbert 6 3.51 13 5.99
Tom Savage 6 2.69 14 5.65
DeShone Kizer 22 4.62 31 5.25
Jameis Winston 11 2.49 26 5.12
Trevor Siemian 14 4.01 19 4.60
Drew Stanton 5 3.14 8 4.57
Jay Cutler 14 3.26 20 4.27
Deshaun Watson 8 3.92 11 4.25
Mitch Trubisky 7 2.12 17 4.23
Josh McCown 9 2.27 20 4.23
Brett Hundley 12 3.8 16 4.20
Kirk Cousins 13 2.41 26 4.13
Eli Manning 13 2.28 24 3.91
Derek Carr 13 2.52 21 3.76
Cam Newton 16 3.25 25 3.75
Blake Bortles 13 2.49 22 3.64
Russell Wilson 11 1.99 25 3.62
Brock Osweiler 5 2.91 7 3.57
C.J. Beathard 6 2.68 9 3.35
Matthew Stafford 10 1.77 21 3.28
Joe Flacco 13 2.37 19 3.16
Marcus Mariota 15 3.31 17 3.15
Carson Wentz 7 1.59 16 3.01
Jimmy Garoppolo 5 2.81 6 2.99
Carson Palmer 7 2.62 9 2.97
Brian Hoyer 4 1.9 7 2.97
Philip Rivers 10 1.74 18 2.95
Dak Prescott 13 2.65 17 2.94
Jared Goff 7 1.47 15 2.83
Andy Dalton 12 2.42 16 2.79
Ben Roethlisberger 14 2.5 17 2.79
Matt Ryan 12 2.27 16 2.74
Jacoby Brissett 7 1.49 15 2.57
Aaron Rodgers 6 2.52 7 2.46
Tom Brady 8 1.38 15 2.34
Drew Brees 8 1.49 13 2.21
Case Keenum 7 1.46 8 1.47
Tyrod Taylor 4 0.95 8 1.45
Alex Smith 5 0.99 7 1.17​
Observations:
Mariota and Rodgers are the only ones who's TO % was actually lower than their INT %, great protectors of the ball.
Alex Smith was behind Tyrod in terms of INT %, but when looking at overall turnovers, Smith easily nabs the top spot, the best protector of the ball in this year.
If you thought Glennon's 5th worst INT % was bad, he is much worse when looking at his total turnover %. He essentially turns it over every 15 times he touches the ball. That's, on average, turning the ball over every 4 drives.
Winston goes from 16th in INTs to 3rd in turnovers (20th in INT% to 5th in TO%), despite playing only 13 games. Wilson also went from 17th in INTs to 5th in turnovers, but that was partially because he had the ball so much, was only 18th in TO% (below average, but not atrocious).
Gen Yards and Gen Y/A
Another simple one, basically just looking at the total yardage that QBs were able to acquire on their legs and with their arm (minus their sack yardage since a lot of negative runs count as sacks). This is where it starts to get really interesting to me, because especially when looking at Gen Y/A, QBs that might get praised for their rushing contributions when looking at their volume, might actually come out worse in the long run because traditional QBs who'll try to find a pass instead of running can end up averaging more yards per touch than those that rack up short runs.
Player Yds Y/A Gen Yds Gen Y/A
Jimmy Garoppolo 1560 8.76 1514 7.532
Philip Rivers 4515 7.85 4393 7.190
Deshaun Watson 1699 8.33 1852 7.151
Drew Brees 4334 8.09 4201 7.132
Alex Smith 4042 8 4190 6.983
Matt Ryan 4095 7.74 4082 6.978
Jared Goff 3804 7.97 3683 6.949
Tom Brady 4577 7.88 4404 6.871
Ben Roethlisberger 4251 7.58 4159 6.818
Jameis Winston 3504 7.93 3432 6.756
Matthew Stafford 4446 7.87 4257 6.641
Case Keenum 3547 7.37 3571 6.576
Carson Wentz 3296 7.49 3433 6.453
Blake Bortles 3687 7.05 3886 6.434
Marcus Mariota 3232 7.13 3371 6.243
Kirk Cousins 4093 7.58 3930 6.238
Derek Carr 3496 6.79 3461 6.203
Russell Wilson 3983 7.2 4247 6.146
Carson Palmer 1978 7.41 1840 6.073
Dak Prescott 3324 6.78 3496 6.038
Josh McCown 2926 7.37 2786 5.890
Aaron Rodgers 1675 7.04 1633 5.750
Cam Newton 3302 6.71 3814 5.727
Mitch Trubisky 2193 6.65 2245 5.585
Brock Osweiler 1088 6.33 1088 5.551
Andy Dalton 3320 6.69 3164 5.522
Jay Cutler 2666 6.21 2544 5.436
Tyrod Taylor 2799 6.66 2970 5.400
Eli Manning 3468 6.07 3305 5.383
Trevor Siemian 2285 6.55 2192 5.308
C.J. Beathard 1430 6.38 1425 5.297
Jacoby Brissett 3098 6.61 3053 5.228
DeShone Kizer 2894 6.08 3087 5.223
Tom Savage 1412 6.33 1255 5.060
Brett Hundley 1836 5.81 1909 5.010
Brian Hoyer 1287 6.1 1179 4.996
Mike Glennon 833 5.95 759 4.993
Joe Flacco 3141 5.72 2990 4.975
Drew Stanton 894 5.62 861 4.920
Blaine Gabbert 1086 6.35 1019 4.696​
Holy fuck Jimmy G.
There are very legitimate reasons to why Cam is seen as a mediocre QB, specifically when speaking of his efficiency. But you might think his volume is bad too when seeing his passing yardage ranked 18th in the league, even though he played all 16 games (ranked an astoundingly bad 28th in passing yards/game out of 40 qualifying QBs). But being ranked 11th in total yardage (and 20th per game) starts looking a good amount better on his end.
Wilson is another riser going from 9th to 4th in total yards.
But let's look and see how the biggest rushers in total yards do in terms of helping their gen yards/touch. Cam goes from 23rd to ... 23rd. Wilson goes from 17th to 18th, actually looking worse compared to other QBs when looking at gen yards/touch. Tyrod goes from 25th to 28th. Kizer is our first riser from 35th to 33rd, and that's mostly because he was just so bad as a QB. The conclusion here is that although the best rushing QBs can put up some great yardage, they're not yielding any more yards per touch than their traditional counterparts. They're just getting yardage in a different way. Even looking at the best QBs in Y/A, Wilson and Watson both dropped at least 1 spot, Prescott rose just 1 spot from 22nd to 21st, and Hundley rose from 38th to 35th, again partially because he was just so bad.
Comprehensive Stats
So we've now looked at the 4 major areas of passing stats (completions, TDs, INTs, yards) and transformed those stats into more general, all-inclusive variants. What happens though if we take our standard comprehensive passing stats like passer rating and ANY/A, and then instead adapt them to work with these new, more comprehensive passing stats?
Player Rate ANY/A Gen ANY/A Gen Passer Rating
Alex Smith 104.7 7.65 7.36 103.40
Drew Brees 103.9 7.71 6.99 100.92
Jimmy Garoppolo 96.2 7.62 6.99 96.96
Deshaun Watson 103 7.19 6.86 103.62
Tom Brady 102.8 7.56 6.82 98.90
Philip Rivers 96 7.6 6.78 94.16
Jared Goff 100.5 7.72 6.77 95.28
Case Keenum 98.3 7.03 6.76 99.82
Ben Roethlisberger 93.4 6.95 6.48 92.70
Matt Ryan 91.4 6.87 6.43 92.26
Carson Wentz 101.9 7.43 6.34 96.14
Matthew Stafford 99.3 7.01 6.07 89.76
Aaron Rodgers 97.2 5.99 5.77 94.51
Dak Prescott 86.6 5.74 5.68 92.46
Russell Wilson 95.4 6.45 5.59 90.08
Blake Bortles 84.7 6.21 5.56 85.53
Marcus Mariota 79.3 5.51 5.49 86.26
Tyrod Taylor 89.2 5.67 5.40 87.80
Kirk Cousins 93.9 6.38 5.37 86.28
Carson Palmer 84.4 5.86 5.33 81.27
Derek Carr 86.4 6.07 5.30 84.13
Jameis Winston 92.2 6.7 5.24 82.82
Andy Dalton 86.6 5.65 5.14 82.73
Josh McCown 94.5 6 4.96 83.86
Cam Newton 80.7 5.28 4.88 82.99
Jacoby Brissett 81.7 5.26 4.65 79.07
Brock Osweiler 72.5 4.94 4.56 76.00
Jay Cutler 80.8 5.04 4.32 80.14
C.J. Beathard 69.2 4.52 4.31 73.20
Eli Manning 80.4 5.11 4.28 77.29
Joe Flacco 80.4 4.71 4.18 78.43
Mitch Trubisky 77.5 5.05 4.13 71.01
Brian Hoyer 74.5 4.74 4.08 71.58
Trevor Siemian 73.3 4.38 3.87 71.36
Brett Hundley 70.6 3.71 3.70 72.49
Drew Stanton 66.4 4.51 3.55 63.83
DeShone Kizer 60.5 3.69 3.40 65.41
Tom Savage 71.4 4.44 2.92 58.61
Mike Glennon 76.9 4.12 2.56 64.84
Blaine Gabbert 71.9 4.06 2.55 57.86​
Observations:
Alex Smith. Once you add in the value of his rushing, not only is his efficiency clearly better than any other QB in the league, with a much higher general ANY/A than any other QB, and essentially tied for 1st in general passer rating. The most efficient QB this season for sure, and imo, should at least be in the argument more than he is for best QB this season, even if he wasn't it overall.
The big drops in passer rating to general passer rating: Matthew Stafford (7th -> 15th), Jameis Winston (16th -> 23rd)
The big risers in passer rating to general passer rating: Marcus Mariota (29th -> 18th), Dak Prescott (19th -> 12th), CJ Beathard (38th -> 31st), Case Keenum (8th -> 4th)
The big drops in ANY/A to gen ANY/A: Jameis Winston (13th -> 22nd), Carson Wentz (7th -> 11th), Jared Goff (1st -> 7th)
The big risers in ANY/A to gen ANY/A: Marcus Mariota (24th -> 17th), Dak Prescott (21st -> 14th), Aaron Rodgers (19th -> 13th)
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2016.10.18 14:50 emosthenesday Is it time to trade for Big Ben? Std 12 team

So I have Rodgers, and he's scaring the heck out of me. I am sitting pretty at 5-1, but I'd like to shore up my QB position for the playoffs. I'm betting Roethlisberger will miss 2 games (coming back week 10) and will be my guy through the playoffs. I'm trying to make a trade with the his owner, who also owners Rivers, but don't know what to offer him. Our rosters are as follows:
Me
QB-Rodgers
RBs-Bell, D Murray, CMike, Crowell, Martin, Mathews
WR-Green, Cobb, DJax, Wallace
TE-Fleener, Rudolph
Trade partner
Qbs-Big Ben, Rivers
RBs-Miller, L Murray, C Thompson, J Rodgers
WRs-Evans, D Thomas, Shepard, Adams, T Benjamin
TE: Henry, Eifert
I offered DJax for Big Ben. Any suggestions?
submitted by emosthenesday to Fantasy_Football [link] [comments]


2016.10.10 00:46 JPdiNero IMO Why Myles Garrett Is The Better Pick

Yes we need a Quarter Back, but I don't see a QB in this years draft to make up for the deficiency of a pass rush we have on defense. If we can't get to Brady, Roethlisberger, Wilson or Palmer, they're gonna put 35+ on us everytime. Yes you can use Wentz right now as a strong argument (which is a hard pill to swallow because the Eagles pretty much have the same roster our current coach had a yr ago) But with the Baalke's track record on offense we are more likely to get Jared Geoff who can't even beat out Case Keenum. Continuing with QBs the Eagles let thiers walk that our current coach couldn't win with last yr, His team is 5-0 with no Adrian Peterson. So right now we have a coach who currently looks like he can't figure out the QB position in the NFL partnered up with a GM that not only passed up on Russell Wilson (a lot of teams did), but also Dak Prescott (3-1) because he thought Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert and Jeff Dryskal were enough to get the job done. Our GM does pick well on the Defensive side of the the ball. Our DBs are pretty solid in all fairness they are in position most of the time but opposing QB hardly under duress allowing for precision passing. The list of QBs notes above 3/4 have a Top 10 Defense those three teams are also Top 10 in Pass Rush. The Denver Broncos are 4-0 with 7th rund pick at QB (because they let their previous 2nd string walk for big money to a team thats 3-2. ) And a 26th pick overall rookie QB who never took a snap from under center. The Broncos also have a Defense that is #4 overall and #2 in sacks, and on that defense the Broncos invested their #2 pick 5 yrs. ago on a pass rusher who Happens to be from Texas A&M and is the current Super Bowl MVP. Whom Myles Garrett is supposed to be a bigger stronger faster version of. The 49ers were competitive because they had an Elite Pass rush and an Elite Pass Rusher. Noted earlier Plamer,Wilson, Brady, and Cam Newton all struggle when faced by a pass rush (as do most teams) . Speaking of the current NFL MVP and runner up in the Super Bowl 50(Panthers #5 in sacks 2015) Cam not only was the#1 pick overall in that same Draft that Denver picked Von Miller but the the 49ers currently have 3 QBs that were drafted in THAT EXACT SAME YEAR! on their roster in which 2/3 were top 15 picks. The 49ers also passed on Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers for Alex Smith as their #1 overall who they traded away to Kansas City whom he takes to the playoffs(#7 in Defense 2015). That is why I think the 49ers Draft Myles Garrett because teams that are constantly competitive for a Ring have a top 10 defense those defense have been top 10 in pass rush. The way I see it, it's extremely difficult to pick a NFL Super Bowl QB, and the 49ers current F/O have no idea what a NFL QB even looks like. This is not a rant I don't think I know more than the next person this is just my opinion if you read all that I appreciate it and would like to hear your 2 cents.
submitted by JPdiNero to 49ers [link] [comments]


2016.10.02 20:28 WWE_Network_Bot WWE Network Updates: 10/02/2016

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2016.08.27 16:52 tbrem15 Season Preview Extravaganza

Regular Season Scoring Average / Record
132.33 / 28-11 – Bacon & Bacon & Bacon
124.6* / 20-19 – Jive Turkeys
124.2** / 19-20 – Ideal Gas Law
123.9 / 22-17 – Carolina Sex Panthers
123.7*** / 17-22 – Phantom FroHawks
121.1 / 25-14 – Straight Outta Somes
121 / 25-14 – Show Me Them TDs
120.2 / 24-15 – smrt
117.2 / 21-18 – Spankey My Sankey
116.6 / 17-22 – Chips & Salsa
112.3 / 19-20 – Dirty Mike & the Boys
110.6 / 13-26 – Tricky Dicks
106.2 / 16-23 – Dr. Jay’s Scrubs
101.3 / 16-23 – Heart Shaped Locketts
100.6 / 17-22 – The Rat Pack
98.3 / 13-26 – Speedsters
*Does not account for Weeks 11-13 in ’14.
**Does not account for Weeks 11-13 in ’15.
***Does not account for Weeks 8-13 in ’15.
Playoff Scoring Average / Record (min. 2 games)
141.7 / 1-1 — Jive Turkeys
139.04 / 5-3 – Straight Outta Somes
138.2 / 0-2 — Chips & Salsa
137.1 / 3-2 – smrt
135.03 / 2-3 – Bacon & Bacon & Bacon
133.3 / 3-1 – Show Me Them TDs
127.5 / 4-1 – Ideal Gas Law
122.2 / 0-2 — Carolina Sex Panthers
118.7 / 1-2 – Phantom FroHawks
112.4 / 2-1 – Spankey My Sankey
More stats:
124.4 – Regular Season Scoring Average Among Playoff Teams
146.1 – Playoff Win Average
Pre-Season Power Rankings
  1. Jive Turkeys — Miller&Cooper&Gurley&Green&Hopkins&Jeffrey. Is there a better 1 through 6?
  2. Bacon & Bacon & Bacon — Deep. Strong. Everywhere.
  3. Ideal Gas Law — Stud Wide Receiver U. Loss of Dion Lewis knocks them down a peg.
  4. Straight Outta Somes — Will Lacy, Murray help Brown, Beckham enough to climb seed ladder?
  5. Show Me Them TDs — Last season’s third highest scoring team has a chance to be just as good in ’16.
  6. Chips & Salsa — With Jamaal Charles back, the sky is the limit.
  7. Carolina Sex Panthers — Hilal’s roster is stocked full of players on verge of breaking out; will they?
  8. smrt — Defending champ looking to carry 135 ppg playoff average into ’16. Doing so won’t be easy.
  9. Phantom FroHawks — Brand new team for Greg. Could be great, but will likely experience growing pains.
  10. The Tricky Dicks — In a winnable division with a team capable of winning games. Let’s see how Bob does.
  11. Dr. Jay’s Scrubs — An underrated bunch with some depth. I expect them to be competitive in Goalpost Ghosts.
  12. Dirty Mike & the Boys — Aaron Rodgers and the Island of Misfit Toys. Equipped to win a still fairly open division.
  13. Heart Shaped Locketts — Out with Washington, Cruz; In with Sanu, Shepard.
  14. The Rat Pack — Miles Austin still being rostered in the year of our lord 2016.
  15. Speedsters — It’s the Year of Christine, guys. Rivers, Blount, Morris should be all on the trading block.
  16. Spankey My Sankey — Can Michael Thomas be the glimmer of light in the otherwise pitch black season forthcoming?
2016 Playoff Odds
  1. Jive Turkeys – virtual lock
  2. Straight Outta Somes – virtual lock
  3. The Ideal Gas Law – 91.75%
  4. Bacon & Bacon & Bacon – 81.5%
  5. Show Me Them TDs – 73.5%
  6. smrt – 66.25%
  7. Carolina Sex Panthers – 65.5%
  8. Chips & Salsa – 59.25%
  9. Phantom FroHawks – 56.5%
  10. Tricky Dicks – 43.75%
  11. Dirty Mike & the Boys – 8.5%
  12. Dr. Jay’s Scrubs – 6.5%
  13. The Rat Pack – 3%
  14. Heart Shaped Locketts – 1.5%
T15. Speedsters – 1%
T15. Spankey My Sankey – 1%
Worst to First Candidates
(1) Phantom FroHawks
From the get-go, the FroHawks had a tumultuous season in 2015. Considered by most as the favorite to win the Tendon Terrors division, but a 1-6 start put those dreams quickly to bed. Last season’s failures were in large part due to injury and misfortunate, rather a lack of talent on the roster. Greg has completely revitalized his roster and put himself prime position to get back to the postseason. Considering there are two other strong candidates for likeliest worst to first team, why are the FroHawks at the top? In addition to being playoff-ready on paper, they play in a much weaker division than SOS or the IGLs.
(2) Ideal Gas Law
The famous Bill Parcells quote “you are what your record says you are” doesn’t exactly apply to the Ideal Gas Laws’ 4-9 season in 2015. Nor does it always apply to fantasy teams in general, but that’s a discussion for another day. Undebatably, Dan has one of the five best teams in the league and are set up for a hugely successful season given their depth of talent. Inside the division the IGLs will have to go toe-to-toe with Bacon & Bacon & Bacon, however the overall strength of the division isn't quite what SOS will be up against — making Dan’s squad the right choice at #2.
(3) Straight Outta Somes
A co-title favorite heading into last season, the Somes didn’t have the regular season success they were hoping for in Year 3. The good news is the quality of the roster hasn't downgraded much, if any, since last year and shouldn’t have too much trouble contending for a playoff spot. Any time you have two of the three best players in fantasy, you've got — at the very least — a good chance to hang around each week. The unfortunate aspect here is SOS plays in PFF’s toughest division, which features the ’14 champion, ’15 champion, and last year’s highest scoring team (145.54 ppg). No matter how strong Damien’s team is, going worst-to-first has an extremely high degree of difficulty.
(4) Speedsters
The newly renamed Speedsters have finished at the bottom of the Hail Mary Horrors division in two of the first three seasons. Although the Speedsters are the worst on this list, they have easier competition than the other three teams as they reside in the league’s weakest — but improving — division. Having a bounce back season that climbed the divisional ladder would be an impressive feat, as a number of rookies and young players would have to step into big production roles at outset of the season. Pulling for you, Jim!
Playoff Projections
Travis
  1. Bacon & Bacon & Bacon (9-4)
  2. Jive Turkeys (9-4)
  3. Chips & Salsa (8-5)
  4. Phantom FroHawks (7-6)
  5. Ideal Gas Law (9-4)
  6. Show Me Them TDs (8-5)
  7. Carolina Sex Panthers (7-6)
  8. Straight Outta Somes (7-6)
Dan
  1. Jive Turkeys (10-3)
  2. Ideal Gas Law (9-4)
  3. Phantom FroHawks (8-5)
  4. Tricky Dicks (7-6)
  5. Bacon & Bacon & Bacon (9-4)
  6. Show Me Them TDs (8-5)
  7. Straight Outta Somes (8-5)
  8. Heart Shaped Locketts (7-6)
Team Previews By Division
Hamstring Heroes
Jive Turkeys
The Turkeys had a season for the ages in 2015; Travis fielded the highest scoring offense in league history at 145.54 points per game with an average margin of victory of more than 50 points. That is some offense, kids. In spite of all that, the two-loss #2 seed were beaten by eventual champion smrt in the second round of postseason play. The Turkeys enter this season appearing as strong as last year with perhaps slightly more depth at the skill positions. With the weight gain and release of Karlos Williams in Buffalo, Travis expects No. 5 overall pick Derrick Henry and free agent acquisition Chris Thompson will “step in and contribute immediately” when called upon. If DeVante Parker has the breakout season a great many are projecting, the 5-man wide receiver could get tricky week to week but the Jive GM isn't overly concerned and maintains that it’s “one of them good problems,” a la Marlo Stanfield. A key stretch in the Turkeys’ season will be early when Jay Cutler is starting in place of the suspended Tom Brady. Cutler will face what is expected to be three good defenses (HOU, PHI, DET) and one poor defense (DAL); if Cutty can hold down the fort — i.e. 15 points per game — it would keep the QB match-up manageable in those four weeks. Exceeding their numbers from a season ago will be a difficult challenge and wins inside the division may not come as easy, but expectations remain high following last year’s disappointing early playoff exit. The Turkeys are considered by those around the league to be the title favorite in ’16.
Show Me Them TDs
Two years removed from his championship run, Chase saddles up with yet another able-bodied playoff candidate. Following a second playoff berth in as many seasons, the TDs didn’t have the firepower required to advance. For the most part it was an off-season of inactivity for Chase as his primary addition over the last eight month was Kenneth Dixon, whom he selected in the first round of the rookie draft. However incorrect, there are people who believe Dixon will take over the snap majority in Baltimore’s backfield sooner rather than later. In the unlucky event this happens, it would give the TDs four starting running backs; six if you count DeAngelo Williams (first 3 games) and Arian Foster. Dez Bryant endured a constant battle with injuries and DeSean Jackson missed a sizable chunk early in the year, so the wide receiver scoring should be on the uptick this season. Ben Roethlisberger has taken it on the chin this off-season: Martavis Bryant suspended for the year, Ladarius Green has yet to practice, and Le’Veon Bell is suspended the first three games. He’s still a top 10 QB, but these setbacks probably limit Big Ben’s upside to be the QB1. Chase’s roster features a few studs and a whole lot of quality in all phases of the game, and that’s why he's got another legitimate contender in this season.
smrt
In the first 11 weeks of the season, smrt averaged 108.1 points per game. In Weeks 12-16, they averaged 135.2. Quite literally, the ’15 champion rose to the occasion in late last year and that’s why they took home the trophy. What makes it all more funny (or sad) is they scored the fewest points in their division during the regular season. The trade for Brandon Marshall in the second half of last year was a brilliant move as not only did Marshall play a big role in their title run, but also looks like a WR1 heading into this season. Doug Baldwin and Tavon Austin, who has evolved into a something of a fantasy producer, round out a solid — if unheralded — trio at wide receiver. Behind them is a rookie in an intriguing situation and that’s Tyler Boyd who will likely be the starter opposite A.J. Green in Cincinnati and could see a healthy number of targets. Both Julius Thomas and Coby Fleener are projected as TE1s this season, and Jared Cook is a bit of a sleeper now that he's in Green Bay. Another position with no #elite players, but ones who can put up points. The situation at running back is a little more unstable as Duke Johnson will have to deal with Isaiah Crowell’s workload and the Browns suddenly have talented options on the outside as well. I love Duke, but the touch distribution in Cleveland worries me. The opposite is the case for fellow starter James White who, if reports are true, will now be the ‘passing down back’ in New England. White largely isn’t a good running back, however last season he averaged 7.5 yards per touch (2.5 yards per carry) which is the highest in the NFL. But I’m burying the lede, the absence of Le’Veon Bell in the first round of division match-ups will be a benchmark test for smrt’s role players. The team lost the Weeks 1 & 2 last season when Bell was suspended before running off 11 of 14 to win the ring. The defending champion returns with a quality squad, but they open the season against four of the top five teams in the league. If they hover around 108 points per game again, it could result in no postseason berth.
Straight Outta Somes
The Somes have won at least one playoff game in each of the first three seasons and made their deepest run yet in ’15 on the heels of a first round upset vs. top seeded & one-loss Bacon. Last year’s runner-up lacked an element of consistency in ’15 and had virtually no luck when they weren't on their A game; SOS didn’t win a game in which they were 10th or worse in scoring for the week. At 118.21 points per game, Damien’s squad ranked 6th in the league in scoring but acknowledges he will “need to score more points” than he did last year to continue his playoff streak. Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. will give the Somes a leg to stand on no matter how the rest of the team performs as both should be top 5 receivers again in ’16. If training camp reports of Vincent Jackson being a primary target for Jameis Winston are true, he could be in for a solid season as right now he has to be considered as the WR3. Damien isn't too pleased with his 2015 first round picks, “[I’m] not so excited about [Dorial Green-Beckham] and Nelson Agholor…[they] could very well drag my team down if they produce,” he said. Went on to call the situation a “headache.” If Green-Beckham can secure the starting WR spot across Jordan Matthews, he could score several touchdowns as he is always a serious threat in the red zone — the Eagles are a bit of a dumpster fire on offense, though. Eddie Lacy had a down year in ’15, finishing outside the top 30 in RB scoring and at times being outplayed by backup James Starks. Damien has faith the former Alabama stud can “return to the upper echelon of running backs.” The Somes owner and GM also feels “pretty good” about his top rookie Devontae Booker, who could take over a starting role by mid-season. However, he has lost faith — and quite quickly — in C.J. Spiller, whom he selected in the third round of the ’16 draft. Damien believes his team will “do okay” this season, while recognizing the Hamstring Heroes division will be “very competitive” again and playoff spots aren't guaranteed because “other divisions are improving as well.”
Tendon Terrors
Dirty Mike & the Boys
In one of last season’s most exciting games, Michael used a 111.25-108.55 defeat of the [team formerly run by Jeremy] in Week 13 to clinch both his first Tendon Terrors division title and playoff berth as the #3 seed. The playoff virgin didn’t last long, however, as Bart Simpson & smrt made it a quickie first round exit. One of my favorite aspects of a dynasty league is finding out which player(s)/asset(s) have been moved over multiple trades across multiple seasons; which leads me to Justin Forsett’s relationship with Dirty Mike & the Boys. Since being selected with the last pick in the 21st round of the 2013 start-up draft, Forsett has scored a total of 106.9 points for DMB. In turn, Michael has given up Mike Evans, Devin Funchess, and his 1st round pick next season to acquire and trade away the now 30-year-old Branden Oliver clone. Despite all my negativity, there are concrete things the Boys have going for them, such as Stefon Diggs looking like a nice player for Minnesota. What’s more is unlike Beyonce’s ex, Ted Ginn has made himself irreplaceable in Carolina’s offense. His production will presumably be unaffected by the Benjamin v. Funchess debate. Thomas Rawls, if he keeps his starting job, and Danny Woodhead make a solid 1-2 at RB, but the loss of Martavis Bryant for the year leaves a gaping hole at WR which forces Michael to consistently start one of Travis Benjamin and/or Cole Beasley. Dirty Mike will need a slew of favorable things to happen if he is to make a return trip to the postseason.
Phantom FroHawks
“…nobody in my division is going to be able to compete in any capacity this year…I don’t think I’ll have trouble winning my division…” That was Greg last August, speaking about his expectations for 2015. Well, things didn’t go quite as planned as the FroHawks turned in the worst statistical season in PFF history. In the past I’ve detailed some of factors in how that came to be, so I won’t touch on them again. Greg began planning for the 2016 season much earlier than most franchises. After being soundly defeated by Bacon in Week 5 last year, he struck a deal to acquire Sammy Watkins. Watkins headlines a starting receiving core, which includes Kelvin Benjamin, Kevin White, and Corey Coleman; all of which Greg believes possess WR1 upside. Whether you share that belief or not, wholesale changes have been made since last summer when the starting quartet was Demaryius-Alshon-DeSean-Kelvin. The two-time Tendon Terrors champion labels his situation at running back as a “state of unproven depth.” First overall pick Ezekiel Elliot and veteran C.J. Anderson are cemented as the starters, but behind those two it’s an abundance of youth and uncertainty with rookies Keith Marshall and Jordan Howard as primary backups. With Calvin Johnson out of the league, Eric Ebron should be post a top-10 tight end season as Detroit has to replace the Hall of Famers’ targets. Greg feels “pretty good” about the state of his team and is hoping for “several consecutive title runs in the coming years.” Aren’t we all, buddy.
Spankey My Sankey
When you have a team that is repeatedly starting players such as Riley Cooper and Andre Holmes, you know it’s time for a change. Thankfully new ownership has taken over this roster and has already begun the rebuilding process. Drew has taken on the challenge with exception diligence, exploring and working many different trade angles in an effort to improve his team. Acquiring Jarvis Landry during the playoffs last year isn’t the only wheeling and dealing he intends to do, “…as the team I inherited has some nice defensive guys and Carr, but could definitely use some help,” he said. Drew believes if he can bring in a few viable running backs, he might can make a run at the division title. Michael Thomas and Kamar Aiken could each have nice seasons, but Drew Brees and Joe Flacco’s target distribution will be a key determinant in their production. The Sankeys have cornered the IDP market, top to bottom they are strong all the way around. They will win consistently against opponents in that phase of match-ups. Despite being in midst of a reclamation project, Drew remains optimistic about his chances in 2016 saying, “I kinda like my team and think I could be slightly underrated going into the season.”
The Rat Pack
Following their Week 4 victory last season, the franchise previously called the Test Eagles didn’t again score 100 points or more in a game. They finished outside the top 8 in scoring all but two weeks during the regular season. This, perhaps, is why there is a new owner in town. Nick has come in and already made some noise in his first off-season by shipping Brandin Cooks and Golden Tate for Keenan Allen & a ’17 first round pick. It was a very smart move on his part because the window for success may not be open for a few seasons; Allen still young & the draft pick will take time to develop. The Rat Pack have a small but serviceable crowd of running backs with Frank Gore, Tevin Coleman, and Charles Sims. The “old and reliable” Gore has a consensus redraft rank of outside the top-25, Coleman is an injury away from potentially being an RB1, and Sims has standalone value as an RB3 alongside Doug Martin in Tampa Bay. Second overall rookie pick Laquon Treadwell likely won’t begin the season as a starter in Minnesota; his maturation (or lack thereof) will be a significant determinant on how soon this franchise starts to succeed. In the face of rave Adam Gase reviews this off-season, Ryan Tannehill hasn’t shown any improvement with his preseason play. The day Tom Brady retires may be the same day Jimmy Garoppolo becomes the Rat Pack’s entrenched starter at quarterback. There’s a multitude of tight ends more suited to start than Garrett Graham, who has never been fantasy relevant; Charles Clay, for one, is a superior option along with a few free agents. Though it’s a mostly likely a few seasons away, Nick is already putting pieces together to get the Rat Pack franchise on its feet.
Goalpost Ghosts
Bacon & Bacon & Bacon
The 3Bacons recorded the best start to a season (10-0) and best regular season record (12-1) in PFF history in 2015. Unfortunately for Eric, those milestones were the highlight of his year as the 3Bacons were “upset” in the first round of the playoffs by the #8 seed. With the retirement of Calvin Johnson and trading away of Josh Gordon, the 3Bacons lack the depth they once had. Introspect, Eric admits, dealing the talented but suspended WR may not have been the wisest decision, “…trading Gordon to a division rival could haunt me for years. Goalpost Ghosts seems an apt name now. You’re welcome Dan.” Having said that, last year’s co-title favorite enters 2016 with another strong team. The 3Bacons will sport the deepest stable of running backs in the league, which now includes Jeremy Hill. The team can start any of five guys, so long as Isaiah Crowell remains the starter in Cleveland. Eric isn’t putting much stock in pre-injury Andy Dalton (22.7 ppg) or Devonta Freeman (The RB1) duplicating their numbers from last season, going so far as to say it would be “borderline psychic” to do so. Freeman has looked terrific so far in the preseason, combined with Gronk, Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, and the return of a healthy Jordy Nelson to replace Calvin, the 3Bacons still look formidable from where I’m sitting. Eric agrees, “I’m not in the Hamstring Heroes division, so I should see the playoffs again this year…”
Carolina Sex Panthers
In 2015, Hilal turned a five win team into a nine win team while, miraculously, scoring fewer points. The franchise formerly known as Luck Dynasty averaged 118.75 points per game in ’14 and 115.84 in ’15 under Hilal’s ownership. That’s not to say the roster isn’t in a better position now, however. In fact, Hilal has one of the most revamped squads in the league as not a single player on the roster at the end of 2014 is on the roster to start the 2016 season. Last season’s 5th seed bulked up its wide receiving corps in the off-season by acquiring Golden Tate & Brandin Cooks, to go with two WR2s from ’15 in Michael Crabtree & John Brown. If one of or both Charles Johnson and Devin Funchess breakout this year, the Sex Panthers will run 5-6 deep at the most fantasy point-friendly position; plus the eventual Thursday night 2 TD game from J.J. Nelson. In a vacuum, Hilal trading FOR Justin Forsett was one of the more perplexing developments of the off-season. Forsett’s lack of ability makes him an odd investment, but the good news is Mark Ingram and Ameer Abdullah will occupy the starting RB slots for the majority of the season. Hopefully when the time comes to start another running back, Terrell Watson will have already pulled the chair out from under Isaiah Crowell’s starting job in Cleveland. Hilal has given up a lot over the past two off-seasons to get his team the way he wants it, Dan calls the team “a true Hilal special” and labels his general managing strategy as “Size, Speed, Pray, Rinse, Repeat.” This is a big year for Hilal, he’s now got a number players he likes in prominent roles, it’s time for the year of #ascension for the Sex Panthers.
Dr. Jay's Scrubs
Jonathan had a rough go of it in his first season coaching as the team lacked the horses necessary to be in the race. The Scrubs reached 120 points in only one of 16 weeks last season and failed to average 100 points per game during the regular season. There several quality pieces on Dr. Jay’s roster, perhaps most notably in the backfield where he goes four deep. Doug Martin & Ryan Mathews might even make for a decent duo on a 12-team redraft league this year and with T.J. Yeldon and Shane Vereen backing them up it’s a competent bunch. Jimmy Graham and Julian Edelman will return from late season injuries and should provide the Scrubs with a better range of scoring outcomes. Perhaps forgotten, Markus Wheaton was very strong over the second half of last season where he played primarily in the slot; if he stays in on the inside, he could be in line for more high-end production this season. The two biggest x-factors on the roster are Terrance Williams and Chris Hogan; Williams is considered a breakout candidate by some and Hogan has generated buzz since signing with New England in March. Dan calls Dr. Jay’s roster “decent but nothing special,” also says it has “very little upside” and predicts a 5-8 season for the Scrubs. I think Jonathan can go two different with this season/franchise: Trade for an upgrade (or two) at wide receiver and try to win now or look to deal players to contenders and acquire young assets and/or draft picks. This roster has a collection of players who can help push teams over the top. Dan’s comments notwithstanding, his team and the Scrubs could greatly benefit from partnering with Jonathan in a trade.
Ideal Gas Law
Dan has done exceptional work in stockpiling assets. Over the past two years, he has added Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Michael Floyd, Josh Gordon, Dion Lewis, Zach Ertz, and two 2017 1st round picks. What I think Dan lacked last season was an ability to understand his team as he decided to forgo a shot at the playoffs prior to being mathematically eliminated. I went back and crunched the numbers to figure out how the Gas Law’s season could have gone. I made what I thought were “logical lineup decisions” for Weeks 11-13, here are the results:
Week 11 — Ideal Gas Laws 131.7, Dr. Jay’s Scrubs 113.65 (5-6)
Week 12 — Ideal Gas Laws 149.85, Carolina Sex Panthers 105.05 (6-6)
Week 13 — Ideal Gas Laws 170.7, Bacon & Bacon & Bacon 128.1 (7-6)
(7) Ideal Gas Law (7-6) — 123.2 ppg
(8) Show Me Them TDs (7-6) — 120.97 ppg

(9) Straight Outta Somes (7-6) — 118.21 ppg
Had this (or something similar) played out, the Gas Laws would have been the league’s third highest scoring team, secured the #7 seed in the postseason and a match-up with their Week 13 opponent, Bacon. Dan’s prospects for the ‘16 season are incredibly promising, particularly due to an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver, “…[I] might be the deepest in the league with two in the top 10 [Robinson, Evans] and six in the top 30 [Hilton, Moncrief, Floyd, Gordon],” he said. And he's not wrong, either. Probably the league’s deepest WR unit. I’ll admit to having the Ideal Gas Laws pegged as my title favorite prior to Dion Lewis’s knee requiring a clean up surgery. It’s clear Dan is at least a little concerned as he now calls his RB situation “very thin” and backup Matt Jones “will likely fill in okay.” Doesn't appear to have a great deal of confidence. Personally would be exploring a WR-for-RB trade, if I were Dan. At quarterback, the IGLs again may have the best tandem out there with Russell Wilson and Tyrod Taylor, both of whom are exceptional at throwing and running with the football. Dan wanted me to make sure I mentioned his favorite player in the league Niles Paul, whom he says has “major upside” should Jordan Reed sustain another long term injury. Dan also guarantees victory over Eric in Week 12, vaulting him to division lead/win. Whether he wins the division or not, Dan is in prime position to collect ring #2 in 2016.
Hail Mary Horrors
Chips & Salsa
Before Jamaal Charles suffered a season-ending knee injury last season, Weeks 1-4, Chips & Salsa averaged a J.J. Gargantuan 138.6 points per game. Schwartz did an excellent job weathering the loss of Charles, holding off Tricky Dicks for the division title, and making it to the semi-finals last year. The standalone food group has an exciting core of receivers: Julio Jones, Marvin Jones, Allen Hurns, and Larry Fitzgerald. All four are in position for strong seasons, especially (M) Jones who is looking to breakout in Detroit. At age 31, Fitzgerald isn’t the deep threat he once was but still has value as a possession receiver and as the team’s fourth wideout you can do worse than a WR3. Charles and Giovanni Bernard make an explosive tandem, both have the big-play ability to win match-ups but Bernard is a scoring rollercoaster week to week. Jordan Reed has emerged as one of fantasy’s best tight ends and should continue putting up points in boatloads if he avoids another concussion. Last season Jameis Winston didn’t score fewer than 14 points in any game and finished the year as the QB13. If he improves even a little bit in year two, which is likely, he’ll be in the mix as a top 10 quarterback. There isn't much to note on Chips’ bench other than Theo Riddick and Kenny Britt, Riddick will see a fair amount of work in the Lions’ offense despite not being fast or good in space. Britt hasn’t been able to turn his talent into production for the majority of his NFL career — let’s find out if this year is different. Chips & Salsa isn’t as frequently mentioned with the elite teams in the league, but they're about as strong as any of them on the front line. The Hail Mary Horrors division is becoming more competitive by the off-season and the Tricky Dicks pose a formidable challenge, but I expect Schwartz to carry this group to another top-4 playoff seed.
Heart Shaped Locketts
Rusty took over a team in immense turmoil. Since the change in ownership, I think we’re beginning to see encouraging signs for the Lockett franchise, including one positive stat from las season: In five of 13 games, the team scored more than 119 points — which is only five points less than what playoff teams averaged during the regular season (124). The second-year owner is hoping to be relevant in a couple seasons and has set a few attainable goals this season to continue turning his franchise: score 1,500 points & go .500. The running back situation is the biggest roster spot working in Rusty’s favor, Adrian Peterson and Melvin Gordon could put the Locketts in the top 5 in RB scoring. Rusty project at least 800 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards on 50 catches, and more than one touchdown. That would place him around RB20 at season’s end, which would mean he outperformed his redraft ADP. Rusty is high on his WR1 Tyler Lockett, whom he expects to “explode” this season with 1,000 receiving yards on 75 catches and seven touchdowns. Those numbers would actually only put the former Kansas State star around WR20. If the Locketts’ top WR isn’t inside the top 20, they are in a heap of trouble. Behind Lockett, Mohammad Sanu, Sterling Shepard, Kendall Wright, and seemingly Terrelle Pryor will share time in the starting lineup at WR. Rusty is anticipating garbage time points for Pryor, as he believes Browns “suck nuts” and will spend most of their season playing catch up. Rusty continues his forest fire of hot takes with this steaming, flaming, burning HSO on Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo: “I think Tony Romo gets his inevitable mid-season injury early this year and the Boys put in Dak and never look back…Death to Romo, or at the very least a gruesome knee injury…I think [Dak] ends up a top 20 QB this year as long as Romo gets hurt.” We’re done here.
Speedsters
The Speedsters haven’t eclipsed more than five wins in the league’s three years of existence. They lost six of seven to open last season while scoring less than 85 points in five of those seven games. The former Champagne Champions are the only franchise to have a career average of less than 100 points per game. The 2016 season is full of youthful beginnings for Jim as he has rebuilt the offense almost entirely through the draft; using nine of 10 picks to select skill position player earlier this summer. Phillip Dorsett is fastest offensive weapon on the Colts’ roster and although he is the WR3, he could easily pop up with huge weeks during the season. Another WR3 in a high-volume passing offense is Davante Adams who, despite playing horridly efficient football, hasn’t lost his role in Green Bay. Adams had only three double-digit outputs in 13 games last season and had a miserable 5.1 yards per target average. Rookies Will Fuller, Malcolm Mitchell, and Braxton Miller all have potential for playing time this season if they can demonstrate an ability to handle NFL game speed. Both tight ends on the roster are rookies as well, Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper each sit behind veterans on the depth chart. Though calling Jacob Tamme a veteran isn’t wholly accurate, he's best described as a dad runner and is highly replaceable in the starting lineup. In the case of Henry, this is San Diego’s second attempt at finding a replacement for when Antonio Gates retires and will likely have to play behind the hall of famer for at least one year. Similar to Dr. Jay’s roster, Jim has several running backs that could be traded to considers at some point during the season. LeGarrette Blount, Buck Allen, Alfred Morris, Christine Michael all might be more helpful to playoff team while the Speedsters could collection more assets for future seasons. If Robert Griffin III plays well, perhaps he's a trade candidate as well. Much to his chagrin, Jim’s team isn’t particularly good right now but there are promising signs that wins are coming down the road.
Tricky Dicks
The Tricky Dicks’ midseason acquisitions of Demaryius Thomas and LeSean McCoy energized the roster with the hope of postseason play. It was a drastically smart move by Bob, he gave up significant assets but saw an open door to a divisional crown and went for it. Down the stretch, however, the Dicks were unlucky with scheduling and ultimately couldn’t make up the ground lost after a 1-4 start. They begin 2016 with virtually the same roster from late last year, where the starters give Bob a chance to win every week while if he is forced to dip into his bench, it gets ugly quick. Thomas has played with bad quarterbacks most of his career, Mark Sanchez’s low quality targets shouldn't inhibit his ability to produce at a high level. He finished last season as the WR12 with the ghost of Peyton Manning’s frozen arm under center. Chris Ivory is probably had for a reduction in production now that he shares a backfield with T.J. Yeldon, though Ivory should be the primary point scorer of the tandem. For my money, Jordan Matthews is the x-factor for the Dicks. If Matthews can be a WR2, it would take a great deal of pressure off McCoy and Eric Decker. Bob is excited about his team’s prospects for the upcoming season, “I am looking forward to having momentum…we just got a late start last year!”
Good luck this season, everyone!
submitted by tbrem15 to dynastyfantasyleague [link] [comments]


2015.11.28 09:12 Russell_Bot [Russell_Bot] Seahawks.com Content from 2015-11-27

Seahawks.com Content from 2015-11-27

Videos

Seahawks vs Steelers Preview - The Seahawks play at home for their third straight game at CenturyLink Field and this time battle against the 6-4 Steelers on Sunday.
Seahawks Daily - Facing Ben Roethlisberger - The Seahawks still had practice during this Thanksgiving week to prepare for their game against the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday.
Thomas Rawls Week 12 Press Conference - Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls explains how he is handling starting two weeks in a row and talks about how far he has come in the last few months.
Pete Carroll Week 12 Friday Press Conference - Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll talks about how this week of practice went preparing for the Steelers and gives injury updates.
Kris Richard Week 12 Press Conference - Seahawks defensive coordinator Kris Richard talked with the media prior to meeting with the Steelers on Sunday about the competition on defense each week.
American Express Blue Friday Chalk Talk with Richard Sherman and Marcus Trufant - Richard Sherman and Marcus Trufant were among American Express cardholders at the Starbucks Roastery for the American Express Blue Friday Chalk Talk.
Seahawks Saturday Night Mic'd Up: Russell Wilson - Take a sneak peek at Seahawks Saturday Night's "Mic'd Up" segment with Russell Wilson during the Seahawks week 11 game against the 49ers. Tune in to Q13 FOX on Saturday at 10:30pm PT for more sights and sounds from the game.

News

Seahawks RB Thomas Rawls is Ready for his Opportunity - With Marshawn Lynch sidelined by an abdominal injury, Thomas Rawls will start again this week, and the rookie running back is ready to take advantage of his opportunity.
The Search for Consistency and Other Keys for the Seattle Seahawks Against the Pittsburgh Steelers - Three key matchups that could determine the outcome of Sunday's Seahawks game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle's CenturyLink Field.
Friday Practice Report: Seahawks Wide Receiver Paul Richardson Ruled Out vs Pittsburgh Steelers - Seattle head coach Pete Carroll updates the gameday status of Seahawks players ahead of Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
glassybaby introduces Blue Thunder Votive with Sales Benefitting Seahawks Women's Association - Seattle-based company glassybaby has partnered with the Seahawks for a third straight year.
*Friday Round-Up: Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & Predictions * - A daily link round-up of what's "out there" about your Seattle Seahawks
On this date: John Kasey’s late kick caps big day for Curt Warner and Chris Warren - A look at some memorable moments in Seahawks history that occurred on Nov. 27.

Photos

Make-A-Wish Kids Kaleb, Aiden and Jordan - Three kids once again made the Seahawks their wish and Make-A-Wish of Alaska and Washington made those wishes come true on Blue Friday.
Go Hawks!
Hi, I am a reddit bot created by _j_. Please send any comments, feedback, or requests as a pm to him.
submitted by Russell_Bot to Russell_Bot [link] [comments]


2015.11.28 09:01 Russell_Bot [Russell_Bot] Seahawks.com Content from 2015-11-27

Seahawks.com Content from 2015-11-27

Videos

Seahawks vs Steelers Preview - The Seahawks play at home for their third straight game at CenturyLink Field and this time battle against the 6-4 Steelers on Sunday.
Seahawks Daily - Facing Ben Roethlisberger - The Seahawks still had practice during this Thanksgiving week to prepare for their game against the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday.
Thomas Rawls Week 12 Press Conference - Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls explains how he is handling starting two weeks in a row and talks about how far he has come in the last few months.
Pete Carroll Week 12 Friday Press Conference - Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll talks about how this week of practice went preparing for the Steelers and gives injury updates.
Kris Richard Week 12 Press Conference - Seahawks defensive coordinator Kris Richard talked with the media prior to meeting with the Steelers on Sunday about the competition on defense each week.
American Express Blue Friday Chalk Talk with Richard Sherman and Marcus Trufant - Richard Sherman and Marcus Trufant were among American Express cardholders at the Starbucks Roastery for the American Express Blue Friday Chalk Talk.
Seahawks Saturday Night Mic'd Up: Russell Wilson - Take a sneak peek at Seahawks Saturday Night's "Mic'd Up" segment with Russell Wilson during the Seahawks week 11 game against the 49ers. Tune in to Q13 FOX on Saturday at 10:30pm PT for more sights and sounds from the game.

News

Seahawks RB Thomas Rawls is Ready for his Opportunity - With Marshawn Lynch sidelined by an abdominal injury, Thomas Rawls will start again this week, and the rookie running back is ready to take advantage of his opportunity.
The Search for Consistency and Other Keys for the Seattle Seahawks Against the Pittsburgh Steelers - Three key matchups that could determine the outcome of Sunday's Seahawks game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle's CenturyLink Field.
Friday Practice Report: Seahawks Wide Receiver Paul Richardson Ruled Out vs Pittsburgh Steelers - Seattle head coach Pete Carroll updates the gameday status of Seahawks players ahead of Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
glassybaby introduces Blue Thunder Votive with Sales Benefitting Seahawks Women's Association - Seattle-based company glassybaby has partnered with the Seahawks for a third straight year.
*Friday Round-Up: Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & Predictions * - A daily link round-up of what's "out there" about your Seattle Seahawks
On this date: John Kasey’s late kick caps big day for Curt Warner and Chris Warren - A look at some memorable moments in Seahawks history that occurred on Nov. 27.

Photos

Make-A-Wish Kids Kaleb, Aiden and Jordan - Three kids once again made the Seahawks their wish and Make-A-Wish of Alaska and Washington made those wishes come true on Blue Friday.
Go Hawks!
Hi, I am a reddit bot created by _j_. Please send any comments, feedback, or requests as a pm to him.
submitted by Russell_Bot to Seahawks [link] [comments]


2015.07.13 13:05 quickonthedrawl Dynasty Startup Draft Walkthrough (pt. 2/3)

Offseason Archive: { Dynasty Fire Sale and Rebuild Auction Draft Walkthrough Snake Draft Walkthrough Pt. 1/3 Why I Punt In Startups }
Hello, and welcome back to my dynasty startup draft walkthrough!
If you missed Part 1, you can find if here. Through 5 rounds, my team is:
RB T.J. Yeldon
WR DeAndre Hopkins
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Allen Robinson
WR DeVante Parker
WR Davante Adams
ROUND 6
6.01 Greg Olsen
6.02 C.J. Spiller
6.03 Jeremy Maclin
6.04 Joseph Randle
6.05 Kenny Stills
6.06 Teddy Bridgewater
6.07 Breshad Perriman
6.08 Julian Edelman
6.09 Charles Johnson
6.10 Isaiah Crowell
6.11 Brandon Marshall
6.12 Jonathan Stewart
Having traded away my sixth round pick to get Davante Adams, I was left without a pick here. It was a little unfortunate, since Perriman in particular would have made a great selection, but I am very happy with having gotten Adams instead. My depth at WR afford me the luxury of waiting on him to move up the WR ranks, and it also allows me to recover quite well in case he busts. During the draft I felt like Joseph Randle was a horrible selection this early, but I’ve since come around. Jonathan Stewart is one that I cannot defend though.
ROUND 7
7.01 Doug Martin
7.02 Andre Ellington
7.03 Dorial Green-Beckham
7.04 Austin Seferian-Jenkins…
Ugh. I had hoped that he would fall farther. He is my number one target at TE (since Gronkowski’s price tag is obscene), and I have huge hopes for him both this season and in the future. I already had ASJ as my predraft selection for 7.12, and so I shot the owner a trade offer before going to bed. Thankfully, he accepted, and I think I got a steal: I sent him my 8.01, 12.01 and a 3rd rounder in 2016 and received ASJ and 14.09. In a vacuum, I overpaid for the 7.04, but given that my opinion of ASJ is so high, I’m very happy with this.
My motto for this draft so far is “Get your guy, at any cost.” I like how it has played out so far. One somewhat curious note, this marked the 3rd trade of our draft so far, and the 3rd that involved me. Happy to be the catalyst.
7.05 Frank Gore
7.06 Justin Forsett
7.07 Cody Latimer
7.08 Duke Johnson
7.09 Tevin Coleman
7.10 Jay Ajayi
7.11 Jaelen Strong
7.12
Holy run on RBs, Batman! Gore and Forsett are senior citizens, Tevin Coleman is in a nightmare of a situation for his skillset, and although I love Duke and Ajayi they’re both taken very early here. I hate jumping on the back of a run at any position, since it’s usually accompanied by added value elsewhere. However, my team is also extremely unbalanced at this point in the draft, having selected 1 RB, 1 TE, and about 35 WRs.
So I made the only natural choice, and picked another WR in Donte Moncrief. This was simply a case of taking the Best Player Available, and nothing more. 3 months ago I was high enough on Moncrief to be tripping balls, but the Colts offseason has put a slight damper on that one. However, his talent hasn’t changed, he presents a different skillset than both T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett, and Andre Johnson is 40 years old.
ROUND 8
8.01 Martellus Bennett
8.02 Julius Thomas
8.03 Shane Vereen
8.04 Devin Funchess
8.05 Kendall Wright
8.06 David Cobb
8.07 Tyler Eifert
8.08 Ben Roethlisberger
8.09 David Johnson
8.10 Matthew Stafford
8.11 Maxx Williams
8.12 DeSean Jackson
I had traded entirely out of round 8 to get ASJ, so I could only watch on helplessly as David Johnson was snatched up. He was exactly who I would have wanted in the following round, but so it goes; for the last few rounds, I had traded up pretty aggressively, so at some point I was going to have to pay the price.
Other notes from this round: My ASJ trade partner settled for Marty Bennett, which while fine on paper, helped cement my decision to trade. The next TEs taken, Eifert and Williams, don’t really excite me either, although both are better selections than Julius Thomas!
Missing out on an entire round of picks is never fun, but at least this was a (relatively) dry stretch of players compared to the earlier rounds.
ROUND 9
9.01 Andre Johnson
9.02 Mike Wallace
9.03 Tre Mason
9.04 Derek Carr
9.05 Torrey Smith
9.06 Matt Jones
9.07 Eric Ebron
9.08 Joique Bell
9.09 Phillip Dorsett
9.10 John Brown
9.11 Jameis Winston
9.12 LeGarrette Blount
Sigh, another round gone, and I didn’t have any picks here either. Again, we’re seeing the cost of trading up, although it’s slightly deceptive since I picked up extra picks later in the draft too. But this part really is no fun!
Seeing Jameis Winston go was particularly painful, since he is who I was targeting at 10.01, and the team who selected him already had Russell Wilson. My attempts to trade for him have thus far been unsuccessful, which is perhaps for the best, given how much draft capital I’ve sacrificed already. I was also hoping that Tre Mason would fall a little bit, since he’s exactly the type of RB I’m interested in: talented, but discounted heavily because he’s buried on the depth chart. So it goes!
ROUND 10
10.01
OK, enough is enough – I need to get a RB here. Thirty-nine of them are already off the board, and I only own one! Though I’m a huge proponent of the Zero RB strategy in startup drafts, you eventually do need capable RBs to make a championship run. In this case, I already have (in theory) a strong RB1, so I need guys with RB2 upside or better. Thankfully, I think I found one in Charles Sims. I’m not a huge fan of the guy since he’s in a timeshare and he’s older than I would like from a second year guy, but he gets a boost in PPR leagues and should be serviceable enough. Also, let’s face it. Every single RB on the board right now has massive question marks, so I have to pick the best of a flawed group of guys.
Other RBs I was considering here were Jerick McKinnon, Knile Davis, and Bishop Sankey. Ultimately, I have a little bit of buyer’s remorse with this pick, but I don’t think there’s a guy in this group that I wouldn’t have felt that with.
10.02 Cordarelle Patterson
10.03 Jerick McKinnon
10.04 Chris Ivory
10.05 Darren McFadden
10.06 Peyton Manning
10.07 Philip Rivers
10.08 Eric Decker
10.09 Knile Davis
10.10 Bishop Sankey
10.11 Terrance Williams
10.12 Pierre Garcon
Looks like the other GMs had the same idea, and all of my RB targets got snatched up. That’s OK though, since my favorite value grab at the moment (Devonta Freeman) is still available, and there’s still a ton of sweet players on the board.
ROUND 11
11.01 Jordan Cameron
11.02 Reggie Bush
11.03 Devonta Freeman
11.04 Brian Quick
11.05
Motherfucker. Freeman was sitting near the top of the ADP list, but I figured I had a little longer before I had to make a move. And since I’ve spent so much draft capital moving up already, I decided not to make a move for him. I did however have an extra pick here in the 11th round, so I felt like I had the luxury of finally grabbing a QB. Thirteen of them were already off the board, so the pool was drying up a little, and I wasn’t looking to go QBBC while punting year 1, since I want to spent the fewest number of roster spots as possible on my QB position. That narrowed my choices down to just Mariota, Kaepernick, Bortles, and Flacco. Everybody else was either too old (Eli, Brees, Romo, Palmer), too risky (Bradford, Mallett), or bad (Dalton and about 10 others).
So I went ahead and selected my first share of Marcus Mariota among my leagues, and I feel pretty good about it. Worst case scenario is I have a below average QB, and have to reach a little next year. Best case scenario, he hits the ground running a la RGIII and I cash out early at plus value, or I have my franchise QB.
11.06 Blake Bortles
11.07 Ladarius Green
11.08 Devin Smith
11.09 Clive Walford
11.10 Tyler Lockett
11.11 Christine Michael
11.12
This first was a really strange spot for me to be in. A second QB was not happening, and all my favorite RB targets were off the board (the next ones were probably Javorius Allen or Mike Davis, and I felt like I could wait on both or snag a decent consolation prize like Cameron Artis-Payne). The WRs were also drying up pretty quickly. I strongly considered reaching on DeAndre Smelter – I own the kid in all but one league, and I think he’s got a chance to be an absolute stud, but ultimately decided this was too early to reach that deep.
There was one name though that stuck out brighter than any other, and that is New Orleans TE Josh Hill. I’m a little bit worried that nobody is going to assume the Jimmy Graham role, even in a limited capacity, and there’s still a nonzero chance that Jermaine Gresham signs with the Saints and ruins everything. However, there’s also the chance that Hill blows up, and that seemed like the best thing to play for here. As the TE15 (!) I could not pass it up.
ROUND 12
12.01 Josh Huff
12.02 Marquess Wilson
12.03 Coby Fleener
12.04 Victor Cruz
12.05 Steve Smith
12.06 Javorius Allen
12.07 Roy Helu
12.08 Colin Kaepernick
12.09 Cameron Artis-Payne
12.10 Kenny Bell
12.11 Sammy Coates
12.12 Denard Robinson
I had sent my 12.01 off to acquire ASJ, so I could only watch as Allen and Artis-Payne were stolen from me. I’d say they were taken a little bit early, but I would have gladly taken them myself! This also seems like sneaky good value for Victor Cruz.
ROUND 13
13.01 Swole Beasley
13.02 Rashad Jennings
13.03
When I get to the bottom I go back to the top of the slide
Where I stop and I turn and I go for a ride,
Til I get to the bottom and I see you again!
Yeah yeah yeah, hey
I’m not kidding when I say I love DeAndre Smelter. Part of the reason why I build my teams on the back of a strong, deep WR corps is so I can take chance on guys like this. Huge hands, great ability, and he comes from the same WR factory that produced Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas. While it’s unlikely that Smelter is going to be as good as either, he easily could be! For the 49ers to invest such a high draft pick on a guy who might not even play in 2015, they’ve got to have big plans for him, and I’m ready to reap the rewards. Get well soon, my prince. I gave half a thought to taking Mike Davis here, since he seems like a solid PPR flier and I’m not 100% sold on Carlos Hyde. However, I was very uncomfortable on letting Smelter fall to the wrong hands. Even with my roster leaning so far toward WRs, it seemed like the correct choice at the time, and I still stand by it.
I had to trade up to get him, so it wasn’t without penalty. I sent my 13.12 and 15.12 for the 13.03 and 17.03.
13.04 Mike Davis
13.05 Andy Dalton
13.06 Ryan Mathews
13.07 Rueben Randle
13.08 Delanie Walker
13.09 Sam Bradford
13.10 James White
13.11 DeAngelo Williams
13.12 Josh Robinson
Robinson was another guy on my radar. The RB pool is drying up fast, so I’m going to need to make some moves soon before I’m forced to trade for a RB rather than sit on one that blows up.
ROUND 14
14.01
I would have loved to take Josh Robinson here, but that wasn’t a possibility. I’m also not a fan of taking RBs at this stage that don’t have PPR upside, such as Andre Williams – even though the price is right, I want a guy who could potentially play all 3 downs. I know, I know, I’m asking a lot.
So here, I blew a pick on a guy who I’m not a huge fan of, but I think the price is fine: Jeremy Langford. I suspect he’ll never amount to much of anything, but he’s got a relatively clear path to a starting gig if anything happens to Matt Forte. Maybe I can sneak in a later selection of Ka'Deem Carey also?
So far, my only two picks that I’m not 100% behind have been Sims and Langford.
14.02 Roddy White
14.03 Marqise Lee
14.04 Andre Williams
14.05 Duron Carter
14.06 Thomas Rawls
14.07 Dwayne Allen
14.08 Brandon LaFell
14.09
Here’s another pick I grabbed from earlier in the draft when I was trading up. It came at a pretty opportune time, since there was one player that stood a little higher than the rest on my board: WR Chris Conley. I happily took the rookie Chief as another bargain bin boom/bust play, and got immediate confirmation that other GMs were looking at him too. In fact, from a pure value stand point, I think he and Smelter are neck-and-neck, so getting him two picks later is a pretty sweet result.
Perhaps I should have gone with another RB instead of Best Player Available, but since I’m not looking to compete in year 1 anyway, I felt like I had the freedom to mine a little deeper for WR value.
14.10 Jesse James
14.11 Tony Romo
14.12 Lorenzo Taliaferro
ROUND 15
15.01 Drew Brees
15.02 Jason Witten
15.03 Larry Fitzgerald
15.04 Eli Manning
15.05 Percy Harvin
15.06 Marvin Jones
15.07 Jace Amaro
15.08 Carson Palmer
15.09 Charles Clay
15.10 Joe Flacco
15.11 Chris Matthews
15.12 Montee Ball
No picks in the 15th round because I wanted Smelter. No ragrets here. This also appeared to be the round in which everybody took their backup QBs, and yes, that really is Drew Brees in the 15th round. I’m not sure of his ADP, but I’m pretty sure it’s a hell of a lot higher than that. I’m also pretty sure the average age of players taken in this round is approximately 100 years old.
And so, after 15 rounds, my team looked as follows:
  1. QB Marcus Mariota
  2. RB T.J. Yeldon
  3. RB Charles Sims
  4. RB Jeremy Langford
  5. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
  6. TE Josh Hill
  7. WR DeAndre Hopkins
  8. WR Sammy Watkins
  9. WR Allen Robinson
  10. WR DeVante Parker
  11. WR Davante Adams
  12. WR Donte Moncrief
  13. WR DeAndre Smelter
  14. WR Chris Conley
14 players, 12 of which I feel 100% confidant about, and 2 of which I feel like I settled for (Sims and Langford). Of course I’m going to be biased at this point in the draft, but I'm really happy with this team, given the requisite year or two for things to develop. If any of Parker, Adams, and/or Moncrief develop ahead of schedule, I’m almost certainly looking at 2016 as a potential playoff year and could be just a RB or two away from making a real championship run.
Thank you for reading, and please tune back in for the final 10 rounds! Last season, that is the range where I found hidden gems like C.J. Anderson, Latavius Murray, and many, many others. Clearly, I'll need to be adding at least a couple more RBs, a few more WRs, and perhaps one more each of a TE and a QB, if the prices are all right.
Where would you have deviated, if at all? Who are some players you thought I should have taken, but passed on? Very curious to hear everybody's thoughts.
submitted by quickonthedrawl to DynastyFF [link] [comments]


2013.10.20 16:49 pfftYeahRight /r/Bengals Fantasy Football League Power Rankings

Hey everyone!
As you might remember, we set up four Fantasy Football Leagues before the season. We thought it would be fun to do a quick update on how the league are going, so we're doing a simple power rankings- one user wrote up on each league.
If you are in a league, remember that at this point everyone still has a chance for the playoffs!
Thanks to safeNsane for the idea!
League Eifert (by safeNsane [+67])
Here are the standings so far:
1)Greeneggsandgresham 's "The Eifert Towers" is currently leading the league at 5-1. His team boasts a strong base of AD, Demaryius Thomas, and Russell Wilson. He's looking like the team to beat--his only loss came by less than two points in a week he forgot his K was on a bye.
2)safeNsane [+67]'s "The ol'Hawkin' & Out" is overperforming his "D+" rated draft with a 4-2 record. Who said picking based on pure gut instinct, not stats, was a bad thing? Some solid pickups after the draft, including KC's DEF, have helped, too.
3)kenny_bania 's team is tied for 2nd place. While not having any true marquis players, his roster has solid depth of guys that put up consistent numbers week in and week out. If Alshon Jeffery and Alfred Morris start breaking out, watch out for this team.
4)UntrustworthyJmandel 's "Rey Mauloser" sits at 3-3. Peyton Manning can only take you so far. Manning always puts up god-like numbers, but some inconsistent play by the rest of Rey Mauloser's cast have cost him a few games. Should this team find stable numbers in the positions that aren't PFM, It'll be scary.
5)TryoneBrownable 's "Toys Margus" is on a 2-game winning streak, thanks in part to Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. Oh, and thankfully the Chiefs remembered that Jamaal Charles is an okay RB. Having Matt Ryan on your roster doesn't hurt, either, but how much will Ryan's lack of weapons affect Toys Margus' ability to win games?
6)jt4 [+1]'s "Hamilton & Cobi Jack" has really been missing Danny Amendola. It doesn't help that Andre Johnson's QB prefers to throw to the other team. Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson should continue to keep this team in the game, though.
7)pfftyeahright 's "Sanu's Button" has been struggling--despite being 3-3, they have the slimmest points foagainst, at +35. That may change, now that SF remembered they can just feed the ball to Frank "NSFW" Gore, and Brady has some white guys coming back from injury. Hopefully Cincy's defense can help, too.
8)cdell1 [+1] (I think) - Aj Superman Green - The worst 3-3 team in the league with three "Blowout of the Week" losses. Not showing up for draft day hurt him, as he picked up Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger and Emmanuel Sanders after the league passed the "No Steelers" rule. Ouch.
9)Grundle_Poacer 's "Picture Burfict" sits at 2-4. You could say David Wilson's fumblitis cost him a few games, as the 2nd year player's fumblitis cost him 2 games. Tony Romo's been hot so far, and Picture Burfict must be thrilled to see that Gronkowski should hit the field this sunday. Oh, and B.Marsh and Beast Mode should help, too.
10)Lsund [+7]'s "Red Rocket" was billed as the #1 draft by Yahoo, but so far isn't living up to expectations. I guess that happens when Kaepernick turns into Hand-off-a-Tron 3000, and your team gets hit by injuries. Finding productive guys in free agency will be important. Oh, and don't forget to update your roster, you've got 3 guys IR'd or on a bye that are active right now.
11)krider91 [+1] (I think) "Kyle R's Team" - RG3's been disappointing, but he's got Larry Fitz, our man AJ GReen, Vernon Davis, and Edelman. New England's DEF has been rock solid. Lack of productive RB's are holding this team back. BJGE and Mendenhall aren't putting up the numbers we were all expecting.
12)engals [+118] "Cincinnati Engals" engals [+118], are you there? It's us, your friends over at /bengals. Where've you been? Do you know you have a fantasy team? You have 2 wins, but have the lowest point differential in the league at -130. C'mon, man!
League Margus Power Rankings (By arbysguy [+121])
1) homework3r - Just like every league you are in, the guy with Peyton is in first. But he’s nt a one trick pony. DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Jimmy Graham make this team a juggernaut.
2) donutsbacon- AJ Green and Gio make this team the sentimental favorite. Add in Reggie Bush and Aaron Rodgers and you have a legit title contender.
3) cechyourbooty - Only a 2-4 record, but this is actually one of the better teams in the league. Jamaal Charles leads the way, and Roddy White should see an increased work load in the coming weeks. If RGIII can do a little more damage with his legs, that would help too.
4) jdfenway [+1] - A solid team that can get even better with the return of Gronk. They just need to find a trading partner for one of Julius Thomas or Gronk.
5) Fear Boners (not sure on reddit name) - Solid team thanks to AP, Demaryius Thomas, and Drew Brees. For some reason he is reluctant to cut Matt Schaub, not sure about that one.
6) slickwats4 - The 1-5 record looks bad, but this team can still make a run at the playoffs. It all starts with CJ Spilelr getting his groove back. If Steven Jackson ever comes back from his injury that could help too.
7) MaxwellJude- Decent team could go either way. Relying on a couple of injured rookie RB’s in Lacy and Bell has a high risk and reward.
8) mrcharasmatist - Justin Blackmon has helped this team of late, not a ton of points but at 4-2 he’s right in the playoff hunt. You know you need help at the RB spot when Willis McGahee cracks your lineup though.
9) arbysguy- This team started off hot, but has fallen off a cliff lately. I have no one to blame but myself for having Romo on the bench for his 500 yard performance. Is Trent Richardson ever going to live up to his fantasy football hype?
10) Banana Stands (not sure on reddit name) - 4-2 record thanks to a little bit of luck. Not a whole lot of impact players outside of Matt Forte and Wes Welker.
11) GSdamsquanch - Kansas City D is keeping them competitive, but they will need more than that to make the playoffs. Jordy Nelson and arian Foster are solid, but they need some more depth.
12) zweep [+60] - Bernard Pierce and Chris Johnson are not the type of RB combo that leads a team to the playoffs. Having some RB depth would be nice, but instead he’s wasting roster spots on garbage like Carson Palmer.
League Burkhead (by pfftyeahright )
I tried a different signup method for League Burkhead, so I do not know most reddit names. Claim your team in the comments!
1) Witty Team Name- (damccleod) Philip River’s revival is coming up big for you. Having a stellar team including Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson, Gore, and the CHI Defense, plus great scheduling, will put you up here.
2) Whit’s it Worth- Don’t let his 3-3 record fool you. Brees, Hakeem Nicks, Demaryius Thomas, Foster, and an improving Eddie Lacy make this team scary.
3) Delhi Degenerates- Solid Depth all around- with Romo,Eric Decker, and Jason Witten as your studs-makes this team one that can win each week, though RB is a concern.
4) Kennypowersz’s Team – I’m not even sure if you’re active, as playing Antonio Brown each week (no Steelers!) and other players on their bye weeks should not get you a good shot. But Payton Manning is on your team, you have a chance.
5) BananaHamockRepublic- With solid depth at WR capped off with Jordy Nelson, Forte and Moreno at RB and a serviceable Kaep at QB, you’re a fighter.
6) Derp’s Team- Matt Ryan, Brandon Marshall, and Marshawn Lynch can carry you to the playoffs. Whether or not Roddy White can come back and be true to his old self could place you much higher.
7) Wolves of Winter- (Winters-Wolf) Russel Wilson is a solid player, and though AP isn’t putting da team on his back, he and Gio are strong RB duo. Above average WRs can help you out, if Palmer learns how to connect with Fitz.
8) You Sanu’s You Lose- My team. My team that makes me cry each week. Drafting RG3 and Schaub didn’t really help me out, but with AJ Green, Reggie Bush, Gonzalez, and CJ2(ha)K, there’s a chance I can sneak in to the playoffs.
9) Matt s’s Team- Eli Manning is not who you want at QB, but with Palmer on your bench, what do you do? Playing Gronk this week could help your turnaround.
10) Ben There Raped That- McCoy is a solid RB, getting no help from Blount. VJax is a solid WR, with no help from Greg Jennings or Tavon Austin. SJax is having an injured year. Hopefully Luck will carry you to some more wins.
11) Carson’s Team- How does a team with Aaron Rodgers end so low? Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, CJ Spiller, Mike Wallace, and David Wilson. All incredibly underperforming this year, though this team is loaded with talent.
12) Romo Witten His Pants- Draft the “IR team of the year” of Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, and Owen Daniels, add in injured backups and no-run-game Ray Rice at RB, and watch the disaster unfold.
submitted by pfftYeahRight to bengals [link] [comments]


2013.10.01 18:31 HrisskarFlatFeet [Trade] My Gronkowski, Welker & Hartline for his Jamaal Charles & Eddie Royal

RECEIVE: Jamaal Charles & Eddie Royal GIVE: Gronkowski, Welker, Hartline
Hi everyone! This is my first season playing FF so I don't really know how to value this trade proposal. I heard from others that the first 3 weeks wide receivers were very strong compared to running backs (especially in PPR leagues). For instance, I had A Boldin and A Brown who both scored 40+ in a game, and also pretty high on average. So from my point of view wide receivers are just as good or even better than running backs. I read C Harris' article on ESPN saying that these weeks have been quite unusual (as in WRs scoring high and RBs scoring low). So could anyone please help me out? Would this be an epic time to sell high? Or is my trade partner trying the same with Jamaal Charles (he surely can't maintain that AVG, right?)?
For information, I play in a 12 men PPR league.
My team:
QB: A Luck RB: A Morris RB: A Foster WR: A Boldin WR: A Brown (lol all start with an A. should have called my team the A team) WR: W Welker TE: O Daniels FLEX: B Hartline D/ST: Bengals D/ST K: J Tucker
BE: R Gronkowski BE: Packers D/ST BE: B Roethlisberge BE: Dolphins D/ST BE: M Ingram BE: J Simpson
Many thanks!
submitted by HrisskarFlatFeet to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]


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